Model Output Discussion

[cooling climate]

Excellent t240 chart but I still feel the evolution to the easterly will be a little quicker than

this once all three models are on board with the movement of the troughing over Scandinavia.

[chionomaniac]

i recall that norwegian shortwave screwed up yesterdays 12z aswell. given GP's consistent mutterings that the trough will hold longer to our east than the models are showing, maybe we should begin to factor this in as a probable delay to the e - w flow getting started. this repeating shortwave situation may not get picked up by the ens. hmmmmmm

I am of the opinion that the timeframe to allow the easterly to be in place is around 10 days anyway. Any thing quicker would be very progressive. The Scandi trough has to fill in (not change position) and that is always going to take some time.

[nick sussex]

i recall that norwegian shortwave screwed up yesterdays 12z aswell. given GP's consistent mutterings that the trough will hold longer to our east than the models are showing, maybe we should begin to factor this in as a probable delay to the e - w flow getting started. this repeating shortwave situation may not get picked up by the ens. hmmmmmm

Its a very difficult balancing act here, as IMO its better if the trough holds as long as possible to the east to stop the Atlantic high from moving too far into Europe but as we've seen this also comes with some risk, to be honest when I saw the 120hrs I thought here we go great run and then it imploded!

If the trough holds but then sinks as the ridge backs west the high will come in at a better angle to advect the coldest air westwards towards you guys in the UK. Can we just nuke that shortwave spoiler!!!

[Bobby]

Derek on BBC Wales forecast said he is "sticking neck out" but models are suggesting another freeze in February with "more cold and snow".

[Frosty.]

More of an ESE'ly from the ECM 12z later which limps in by T+216 but then arrives properly by the last frame. If the ecm 12z is the worst case scenario then I will happily take it as next week looks like remaining on the cold side before the E'ly even arrives, it's only a matter of time before we get an ecm op run which reflects the true potential.

[Jason T]

Evening all, Well models out of this world today. Some impressive changes I DO THINK NOW that we are heading for a a very prolonged cold spell with an intense amount of snow.

Take my hat of to the people that stated all along that feb was going to be bad with model output will be pretty eye catching viewing.

[nick sussex]

Yes it's like pulling teeth with the ECM as it struggles with the sign for substantial Northern blocking and how that interacts with shortwave developments. The GFS has been very consistent with how it develops the raising heights, obviously can there be no knowing at this stage how 'good' the easterly might be, but all the building blocks look to be in place.

To be honest Ian I nearly threw the laptop across the room when the 168hrs chart popped up! Theres always something with trying to get an easterly, I think it's more frustrating in that the cold pool likely to the east is not going to come around that often, it's a great opportunity for you guys in the UK to get some upper air near -15 or even below, would just like to see it happen, if there wasn't the cold pool i'd be less frustrated, thankfully they have a good swear filter in netweather otherwise there may have been a banning order placed on me!

[Cloud 10]

+96>>+120 >>

I think the ecm has lost the plot on tonight's 12z early on in the run.

The evolution between the 2 charts above just doesn't look right somehow regarding that trough to the NE.

[mcweather]

The problem here is the one we have with nearly all the easterlies that are progged by the models namely that the trend towards them is picked up well in advance usually it has to be said by GFS. The ECM upgraded or not whilst excellent when recent cold spells have arrived nearly always plays silly b*****s in advance of them before finally coming round to a scenario similar to ones that were originally suggested FI by the GFS.

GP's update regarding massive blocking in the eastern arctic is the most interesting additional news tonight and whilst many on here are ultra cautious ( and after years of mild winters who can blame them) the point that needs to be borne in mind is that this is not an ordinary winter and therefore the colder scenarios like the easterly progged on gfs are more likely to happen than in other years.

[cold snap]

More of an ESE'ly from the ECM 12z later which limps in by T+216 but then arrives properly by the last frame. If the ecm 12z is the worst case scenario then I will happily take it as next week looks like remaining on the cold side before the E'ly even arrives, it's only a matter of time before we get an ecm op run which reflects the true potential.

Would be nice If ECM is some kind of outlier especially in the early stages.

It really does mess around.its almost like it out to send are hearts into Overdrive.

GFS continuation of block theme continues.

UKMO is okay.Something ive noticed may be wrong.UKMO likes taking the middle ground When GFS and ECM are having a stand off with each other.maybe im wrong

Looking forward to a bumper Pub run later.Want to see the block continue for big freeze part 2.

By the way cold fans there is a northerly to look forward to at weekend .We have got so greedy its worrying.haha

Edited January 28, 2010 by cold snap

[Iceberg]

For me the ECM 12Z losses it at 144T when it's too progressive linking up the Arctic high into N.Scandy/Iceland/Greendland in the space of 12 hrs.

This then gives any residual energy in the Atlantic nowhere to go. I think it's worth saying that not a single run from GFS ENS follows the ECM 12Z, so I think this progressiveness will not be mirrored in the Ensembles.

Still the trend from the ECM is very good and I am not more or less optimistic after seeing the ECM or not seeing it tbh. It will come it's between 5-8 days away still, but it's definately coming.

[cold snap]

For me the ECM 12Z losses it at 144T when it's too progressive linking up the Arctic high into N.Scandy/Iceland/Greendland in the space of 12 hrs.

This then gives any residual energy in the Atlantic nowhere to go. I think it's worth saying that not a single run from GFS ENS follows the ECM 12Z, so I think this progressiveness will not be mirrored in the Ensembles.

Still the trend from the ECM is very good and I am not more or less optimistic after seeing the ECM or not seeing it tbh. It will come it's between 5-8 days away still, but it's definately coming.

Models can be so annoying at times.Because ECM were the crowd who led us to beleive we were on to something in the first place.only then to put it back a few days.and show a weaker situation.

Just gets over the line even so

[Frosty.]

Would be nice If ECM is some kind of outlier especially in the early stages.

It really does mess around.its almost like it out to send are hearts into Overdrive.

GFS continuation of block theme continues.

UKMO is okay.Something ive noticed may be wrong.UKMO likes taking the middle ground When GFS and ECM are having a stand off with each other.maybe im wrong

Looking forward to a bumper Pub run later.Want to see the block continue for big freeze part 2.

By the way cold fans there is a northerly to look forward to at weekend .We have got so greedy its worrying.haha

I would call the ukmo 12z @ T+144 a stand off situation with the atlantic airmass trying to get into the far northwest and the uk in a col situation with the siberian high throwing a ridge slowly towards the BI, stuck between 2 stools sums it up but the general trend and momentum seems to be something coming in from the east in the mid-longer range.

[West Sussex Kate]

looking forward to this weekends Northerly. I still think some showers might push in from the east coast to my area.

Also I feel very hopeful about the Easterly - charts are still heading in the right direction and like others have said this is not like any winter we've had in many years. I think there will be more suprises instore!

After this weekend I think we will know a lot more.

[cold snap]

I would call the ukmo 12z @ T+144 a stand off situation with the atlantic airmass trying to get into the far northwest and the uk in a col situation with the siberian high throwing a ridge slowly towards the BI, stuck between 2 stools sums it up but the general trend and momentum seems to be something coming in from the east in the mid-longer range.

Just thinking there frosty i dont want us mate to be stuck in no mans land again.

To be honest i would rather have mild wet and windy for the rest of the winter.

Waiting on the next set of runs with hope as ever.

[Altostratus]

Well, there is still nothing to get overly excited about in the reliable time frame. Unfortunately, the exciting stuff is well out in FI at the moment – déjà vu anyone? With that huge Siberian block forecast, it is hard not to envisage it exerting an effect on the UK at some point – what this effect might be, is anyone’s guess right now. Taking this evening's output, it looks like it will be cold and mostly dry as opposed to very cold and snowy. There will no doubt be ups and downs as we close in on the event. Certainly looks promosing from a cold perspective at the moment though - sure beats seeing endless zonality IMHO!

[lukemc]

Hi,

Again interesting model output which is always entertaining. Anyway a another question for you guys on here. Why is it that with their being very cold temperatures over Central/Eastern mainland Europe and Scandinavia at the moment is the UK remaining realtivly mild at the moment with many places not even recording a frost for over a week? Because I have noticed that during our cold spell in early January even though Germany, Poland, Scandinavia etc where cold, some places in the UK where at least as cold as Eastern Europe and even parts of Scandinavia at the time (remember -15C being recorded in Manchester?). Now with those sorts of temperates being recorded in Germany etc. not to far away from the UK, and temps pushing -30 in Helsinki etc. (severely cold even by their standards! - even places like Poland have not scene cold that intense for a long time) what interests me is what so different synoptically to the situation early in the month (and in December) that means that the British Isles is not in the "very cold club" at the moment?

Another point would be that when parts of mainland Europe have got as cold as that in the past I think it has always been a precursor to a very cold spell in this country (for example wasn't it the case that before the 1987 severe spell one of the first signs was very cold temperatures over say East Germany a few days before - for example -20C in Berlin) - do you think that the same thing could happen again this time? Would be difficult to even consider a mild outcome with all that cold air around us!

Luke

[dave79]

Hi,

Again interesting model output which is always entertaining. Anyway a another question for you guys on here. Why is it that with their being very cold temperatures over Central/Eastern mainland Europe and Scandinavia at the moment is the UK remaining realtivly mild at the moment with many places not even recording a frost for over a week? Because I have noticed that during our cold spell in early January even though Germany, Poland, Scandinavia etc where cold, some places in the UK where at least as cold as Eastern Europe and even parts of Scandinavia at the time (remember -15C being recorded in Manchester?). Now with those sorts of temperates being recorded in Germany etc. not to far away from the UK, and temps pushing -30 in Helsinki etc. (severely cold even by their standards! - even places like Poland have not scene cold that intense for a long time) what interests me is what so different synoptically to the situation early in the month (and in December) that means that the British Isles is not in the "very cold club" at the moment?

Another point would be that when parts of mainland Europe have got as cold as that in the past I think it has always been a precursor to a very cold spell in this country (for example wasn't it the case that before the 1987 severe spell one of the first signs was very cold temperatures over say East Germany a few days before - for example -20C in Berlin) - do you think that the same thing could happen again this time? Would be difficult to even consider a mild outcome with all that cold air around us!

Luke

Interesting reading your last paragraph Luke,

I have taken this statement from Joe laminate floori ( Expert Senior Meterologist ) from AccoWeather. He goes onto say,

ACHTUNG! COLDEST JANUARY IN BERLIN SINCE THE '80S.

Looks like the wall of warm has fallen in Berlin... and now this is getting out of control. The current reading there of 8.6F below normal makes it the coldest January since at least the '80s.

And I don't see February much better.

Heck of a way to run a global meltdown.

-------------------------------------------------------------

is this a sign of what things to come for us here in the uk.

[Snowyowl9]

Well, there is still nothing to get overly excited about in the reliable time frame. Unfortunately, the exciting stuff is well out in FI at the moment.

16 hours away -9/-10c upper air thats always exciting.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn242.png

[stratty]

Would be difficult to even consider a mild outcome with all that cold air around us!

Luke

......, it is not cold to our west or south!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=gfsh500;sess=

[Optimus Prime]

An awful lot of very cold weather on offer going into February. Looking at the models I think the cold surge will be back by about the 5th going by the PDO and AO. This time the continent will be very cold indeed.

[smich]

Hello!

Being of the ephemeral lightbold of the dreamymost, I would like to offer my deep thoughkus on the developy situe herein at this placeybode.

Deep joy of the high pressicale over the Siberian permafrosty. We ask, "if all the highs of the Northern Hemibode were but one high, what a great big highhullollopper that would bold!" Yes! And, if the deep cold transnit out the backgrove and regressicale west, we'll all be in a deep joy of slippedyslidey in the icygripper!

But wait! The scintillatey detail of the returfold of that high, it's not set in the hardbold of of the stoneymost, so we could all either be doing a tearyshed to the sound of the scrapy catgut violin or doing a deep joy of the swivelly hippy in the snow like we've never seen it before!

Stay cool everyone!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Well, there is still nothing to get overly excited about in the reliable time frame. Unfortunately, the exciting stuff is well out in FI at the moment – déjà vu anyone? With that huge Siberian block forecast, it is hard not to envisage it exerting an effect on the UK at some point – what this effect might be, is anyone's guess right now. Taking this evening's output, it looks like it will be cold and mostly dry as opposed to very cold and snowy. There will no doubt be ups and downs as we close in on the event. Certainly looks promosing from a cold perspective at the moment though - sure beats seeing endless zonality IMHO!

Hi , wel it depends on what angle your getting deja-vu from , the gfs gives me deja-vu in the sense that for me its bin fantastic this year picking up new trends early on, they did this for january , and the one before xmas , iv been really impressed with that this year ,

also regarding your comment about it been cold and dry , i remember 2days before the country was bought to a stand still at the beggining of the month ones were saying how dry it will be , features arent picked up untill the last minute , i do no this tho . .

-15 uppers close by , convection in forms of showers , bands and troughs.

Not to mention channel lows meeting the cold air bringing snow to the south , these features are classic features in this set up.

[snowmadchrisuk]

One thing I have been very impressed with GFS about since it's upgrade is there 850mb forecasts, everytime the GFS has called it correct and the other models have had to back down!

[Strider]

One thing I have been very impressed with GFS about since it's upgrade is there 850mb forecasts, everytime the GFS has called it correct and the other models have had to back down!

You sure about that? The GFS initially picked out the coming cold spell, but went back to predicting mild weather for a few days into Feb.

This week it switched back again.