Model Output Discussion

[West Sussex Kate]

out of interest does anyone have the GFS model chart for the 6th of jan? (the major snow event day!) could you post it on here ?:lol:

[I remember Atlantic 252]

out of interest does anyone have the GFS model chart for the 6th of jan? (the major snow event day!) could you post it on here ?:lol:

www.meteociel.fr then click on GFS Europe, then archives, 6th Jan was class one of my favourite weather days ever at the time

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

So. where are we looking, certainly over the next 3-4 days it's cold. then we have this

Which I think looks ominous. So, lets have a look at the 850's for the same time

That show that, not very far to our East we have some very cold air about 150 miles off the East Coast. Where does the GFS think we go from here, we don't have FAX's that far out, so, while still in the Hi res part of the model, lets skip forward 30 hours to T+150

That looks like a stalled front with the cold air pushing West. Heading now to what is really FI, the last shot of the Hi Res at T+180

With the GFS's propensity of not giving enough credence to cold air advection, I'll stick my neck out and say it will be cold from the East by late Wednesday and the cold will increase through the period to next weekend, again, the date in my book looks like the 8th or February. If it's cold on that day, we'll have at least 2 weeks of severe cold, if it's getting milder, Europe may get it, we may not

[Rob K]

out of interest does anyone have the GFS model chart for the 6th of jan? (the major snow event day!) could you post it on here ?

Yep I saved them specially... these were T+24 hour charts

Pressure chart: http://i45.tinypic.com/307w11u.jpg

850s: http://i48.tinypic.com/55idl.png

Thicknesses: http://i46.tinypic.com/zn8z2h.png

Precipitation: http://i47.tinypic.com/ra6qon.png

Result: http://i45.tinypic.com/5pr32s.jpg (it got deeper, too!)

Edited January 28, 2010 by Rob K

[sandstorm2]

Think a lot of people on here have lost the plot, the cold weather over the weekend has been conveniently forgotten about, and with -10 uppers arriving in about 12 hours for some parts of the country everyone has turned their attention to the possible easterly in 10 days.

Time for a reality check everyone.

SS2

[West Sussex Kate]

(thanks everyone for the charts!!! :lol:)

[Upgrade]

I have to say , looking at the 12z GFS output it's quite scary how much cold air is now knocking about in the northern hemisphere! People are right to be cautious and the evolution may be messy but to my uneducated mind it looks as if we're in for a hell of a cold spell after this northerly. i can't believe how much blocking is shown!

[aspire27]

Think a lot of people on here have lost the plot, the cold weather over the weekend has been conveniently forgotten about, and with -10 uppers arriving in about 12 hours for some parts of the country everyone has turned their attention to the possible easterly in 10 days.

Time for a reality check everyone.

SS2

Which parts of the country are you reffering to?

[Upgrade]

Think a lot of people on here have lost the plot, the cold weather over the weekend has been conveniently forgotten about, and with -10 uppers arriving in about 12 hours for some parts of the country everyone has turned their attention to the possible easterly in 10 days.

Time for a reality check everyone.

SS2

Agreed, but everyone can see the monstrous potential of these 10 day charts. They're truly mesmerising. The Northerly will be fun and enjoyed. There's still a fair amount of snow on northern hills from last time too, don't forget. But for popcorn munching chart viewing potential, these Easterly charts are better than any blockbuster, and they are slowly creeping into a more reliable timeframe.

[sandstorm2]

Which parts of the country are you reffering to?

North of Scotland and right through central Scotland to the borders, check the 850's on the GFS.

SS2

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

I think this is worth a read, explains things really simply regarding next weeks possible cold spell arriving from the east. What really suprised me was that he has used charts from the GFS, quite strange considering he works for the bbc. Anyway heres the link

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

[sandstorm2]

Agreed, but everyone can see the monstrous potential of these 10 day charts. They're truly mesmerising. The Northerly will be fun and enjoyed. There's still a fair amount of snow on northern hills from last time too, don't forget. But for popcorn munching chart viewing potential, these Easterly charts are better than any blockbuster, and they are slowly creeping into a more reliable timeframe.

Yes the models do look great but they have disappointed so often I think I am turning into a grumpy old man.

SS2

[aspire27]

North of Scotland and right through central Scotland to the borders, check the 850's on the GFS.

SS2

Thats probably why nobody is commenting. Lots of IMBY goes on here.

[sandstorm2]

I think this is worth a read, explains things really simply regarding next weeks possible cold spell arriving from the east. What really suprised me was that he has used charts from the GFS, quite strange considering he works for the bbc. Anyway heres the link

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

That certainly is an impressive looking chart with 510 thicknesses covering the whole of England and Wales and parts of Eastern Scotland, long way off though.

SS2

[Shunter]

NOAA discussions this evening throw a potential "curve ball" into the UK's medium term synoptic pattern. HP too near to the Uk could scupper the potential for an Easterly. This should serve to temper anticipation for the forthcoming freeze.

THE

DISPLACEMENT OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FARTHER EAST IS FORECAST TO ALLOW SIGNIFICANT

PACIFIC MOISTURE TO ENTER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE LOCATED

NEAR THE UNITE KINGDOM REGION, A PATTERN THAT IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH A NEGATIVE NAO (WHERE THE RIDGE WOULD BE FARTHER WEST). THIS REDUCES THE ODDS FOR INTENSE

COLD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IN THE MEAN.

Edited January 28, 2010 by Shunter

[chionomaniac]

Thats probably why nobody is commenting. Lots of IMBY goes on here.

Surely everyone when looking at the charts looks to their own location first? Isn't that only natural?

Edited January 28, 2010 by chionomaniac

[Wayneywoo]

Surely everyone when looking at the charts looks to their own location first? Isn't that only natural?

Of course Chiono and that's why a high percentage of posters to this thread are talking about the E'ly :lol: :lol:

NOAA discussions this evening throw a potential "curve ball" into the UK's medium term synoptic pattern. HP too near to the Uk could scupper the potential for an Easterly. This should serve to temper anticipation for the forthcoming freeze.

THE

DISPLACEMENT OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FARTHER EAST IS FORECAST TO ALLOW SIGNIFICANT

PACIFIC MOISTURE TO ENTER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE LOCATED

NEAR THE UNITE KINGDOM REGION, A PATTERN THAT IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH A NEGATIVE NAO (WHERE THE RIDGE WOULD BE FARTHER WEST). THIS REDUCES THE ODDS FOR INTENSE

COLD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IN THE MEAN.

Actually, I think scupper for the US here, notice the last sentence. Everything for the UK still looks ok.

Edited January 28, 2010 by Wayneywoo

[Southender]

NOAA discussions this evening throw a potential "curve ball" into the UK's medium term synoptic pattern. HP too near to the Uk could scupper the potential for an Easterly. This should serve to temper anticipation for the forthcoming freeze.

THE

DISPLACEMENT OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FARTHER EAST IS FORECAST TO ALLOW SIGNIFICANT

PACIFIC MOISTURE TO ENTER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE LOCATED

NEAR THE UNITE KINGDOM REGION, A PATTERN THAT IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH A NEGATIVE NAO (WHERE THE RIDGE WOULD BE FARTHER WEST). THIS REDUCES THE ODDS FOR INTENSE

COLD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IN THE MEAN.

Am I the only one confused by this statement? Seems contradictory... Edited January 28, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[aspire27]

NOAA discussions this evening throw a potential "curve ball" into the UK's medium term synoptic pattern. HP too near to the Uk could scupper the potential for an Easterly. This should serve to temper anticipation for the forthcoming freeze.

THE

DISPLACEMENT OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FARTHER EAST IS FORECAST TO ALLOW SIGNIFICANT

PACIFIC MOISTURE TO ENTER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE LOCATED

NEAR THE UNITE KINGDOM REGION, A PATTERN THAT IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH A NEGATIVE NAO (WHERE THE RIDGE WOULD BE FARTHER WEST). THIS REDUCES THE ODDS FOR INTENSE

COLD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IN THE MEAN.

Thats why when the NAO is negative we should not presume a cold spell.

Of course Chiono and that's why a high percentage of posters to this thread are talking about the E'ly

Exactly my point earlier. Lots of eastern UK guys and girls here. Thats why it gets so busy when a Easterly shows.

[NorthantsSnow]

I have to say it'll be amazing if the easterly does occur as planned 8th Feb. This date has produced several snow events here in the past decade alone. Another on this very same date would be extraordinary.

Edited January 28, 2010 by NorthantsSnow

[Paul White.]

NOAA discussions this evening throw a potential "curve ball" into the UK's medium term synoptic pattern. HP too near to the Uk could scupper the potential for an Easterly. This should serve to temper anticipation for the forthcoming freeze.

THE

DISPLACEMENT OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FARTHER EAST IS FORECAST TO ALLOW SIGNIFICANT

PACIFIC MOISTURE TO ENTER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE LOCATED

NEAR THE UNITE KINGDOM REGION, A PATTERN THAT IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH A NEGATIVE NAO (WHERE THE RIDGE WOULD BE FARTHER WEST). [/color]THIS REDUCES THE ODDS FOR INTENSE

COLD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IN THE MEAN.

I might be missreading that but forgive me, in other words it does not fit the NAO for the ridge to be too far east. Does that make sense? Not sure if that reads right :lol:

Edited January 28, 2010 by paulwhite22

[chionomaniac]

NOAA discussions this evening throw a potential "curve ball" into the UK's medium term synoptic pattern. HP too near to the Uk could scupper the potential for an Easterly. This should serve to temper anticipation for the forthcoming freeze.

THE

DISPLACEMENT OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FARTHER EAST IS FORECAST TO ALLOW SIGNIFICANT

PACIFIC MOISTURE TO ENTER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE LOCATED

NEAR THE UNITE KINGDOM REGION, A PATTERN THAT IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH A NEGATIVE NAO (WHERE THE RIDGE WOULD BE FARTHER WEST). THIS REDUCES THE ODDS FOR INTENSE

COLD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IN THE MEAN.

Those discussions are throwing a curved ball to the Eastern US but are still consistent with the UK being at the end of an easterly line. For the moment height rises to our NW are not on the cards but certainly they are to our N/NE.

[beng]

NOAA discussions this evening throw a potential "curve ball" into the UK's medium term synoptic pattern. HP too near to the Uk could scupper the potential for an Easterly. This should serve to temper anticipation for the forthcoming freeze.

THE

DISPLACEMENT OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FARTHER EAST IS FORECAST TO ALLOW SIGNIFICANT

PACIFIC MOISTURE TO ENTER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE LOCATED

NEAR THE UNITE KINGDOM REGION, A PATTERN THAT IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH A NEGATIVE NAO (WHERE THE RIDGE WOULD BE FARTHER WEST). THIS REDUCES THE ODDS FOR INTENSE

COLD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IN THE MEAN.

Sounds like they are really suggesting WAA up around the UK - Scandi blocking. The t160-180 charts from the GFS illustrates their description quite well I think.

I do like tonight's chart from our US friends.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

[Cloud 10]

The 12z ecm extended ensembles looking very cold.

Lets see if the gfs 18z can deliver some eye candy!

[bluearmy]

NOAA discussions this evening throw a potential "curve ball" into the UK's medium term synoptic pattern. HP too near to the Uk could scupper the potential for an Easterly. This should serve to temper anticipation for the forthcoming freeze.

THE

DISPLACEMENT OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FARTHER EAST IS FORECAST TO ALLOW SIGNIFICANT

PACIFIC MOISTURE TO ENTER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE LOCATED

NEAR THE UNITE KINGDOM REGION, A PATTERN THAT IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH A NEGATIVE NAO (WHERE THE RIDGE WOULD BE FARTHER WEST). THIS REDUCES THE ODDS FOR INTENSE

COLD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IN THE MEAN.

yesterday, they quoted 'in the area between Ireland/Iceland' so the models have shunted the axis of the upper high a little east. however, the mean pressure centres for the period isnt too shabby

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.03.gif

i wouldnt worry too much