Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion:

[Methuselah]

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[Cymro]

We didnt ave much snow to budge so the thaw hasnt been substantial although only have about 20% cover in sunny areas in shaded areas however the snow hasnt thawed at all which makes the street look rather odd one side of the pavement is bone dry while the other is white with powdery snow. sun will start going down soon and the temps are lowering now, Can we expect more than last night over night? I haven't looked to much into it if I'm honest.

[andymusic]

Looks like there will be more showers into tomorrow than last night and spreading out further a field too! - mention of "welsh" snow showers actually making it as far as the midlands!

[nomad098]

looking at sat24 you can see a more organised band of cloud moving down to the north of Scotland not sure if this meant for wales early hours tomorro morning

cardiff barage temp 4.6c

dewpoint -4.5c

wind direction NW

average wind speed 12mph

[Bobby]

Can we expect more than last night over night? I haven't looked to much into it if I'm honest.

I think so, more organised and widespread showers tonight and tomorrow.

[andymusic]

looking at sat24 you can see a more organised band of cloud moving down to the north of Scotland not sure if this meant for wales early hours tomorro morning

cardiff barage temp 4.6c

dewpoint -4.5c

wind direction NW

average wind speed 12mph

Yes that's the stuff we are getting tomorrow (starting in the early hours) - an organising band of showers coming our way!

[nomad098]

Yes that's the stuff we are getting tomorrow (starting in the early hours) - an organising band of showers coming our way!

not to early tomorro morning I hope as me and the Mrs are finally having a night out in Cardiff tonight after being ill all over the christmas period and not being able to go out.

Is there any timings when it might reach Cardiff?

[cheshire snow]

Yes that's the stuff we are getting tomorrow (starting in the early hours) - an organising band of showers coming our way!

Hi Andy

hope you dont mind me been in this thread the NW thread has been quite for days now.think they have all gone on holiday LOL

i am right in saying that this band of showers tonight is going to effect N Wales and Cheshire as well

C.S

[J10]

I have attached a few charts showing the convective potential over the next 24 hours or so.

As you can see the Lifted Index are lowering indicating increasing risk of showery activity and shades of blue increasing an increase in potential energy for showers.

This also indicates the showers over Pembrokeshire perhaps dying out this afternoon, but showers starting to pile into North Wales later this evening, becoming more widespread overnight and into tomorrow.

And on these charts the numbers are increasing representing the J/kg figure indicating an increasing risk of showery activity overnight and into tomorrow.

The NMM doesn't really show than showers today but this increases tonight and more especially into tomorrow.

Of course, the showers during the day, are more likely to be a of a wintry mix rather than all of snow.

So in summary, showers dying out this afternoon, becoming established again in North Wales late this evening, before becoming mode widespread across many western areas overnight, and perhaps more widespread across Wales tomorrow.

I am not looking that far forward at the moment, as there is a lot of weather to go through before this happens and a lot can change in the next 48 hours.

[andymusic]

not to early tomorro morning I hope as me and the Mrs are finally having a night out in Cardiff tonight after being ill all over the christmas period and not being able to go out.

Is there any timings when it might reach Cardiff?

I think south east wales might be hit in the morning rather than over night but - just like last night - these showers have a habit of catching people out - even the meto

Hi Andy

hope you dont mind me been in this thread the NW thread has been quite for days now.think they have all gone on holiday LOL

i am right in saying that this band of showers tonight is going to effect N Wales and Cheshire as well

C.S

The cheshire gap streamer may well set up in business tonight - may be more chance tomorrow!

[cheshire snow]

I think south east wales might be hit in the morning rather than over night but - just like last night - these showers have a habit of catching people out - even the meto

The cheshire gap streamer may well set up in business tonight - may be more chance tomorrow!

Thanks for the reply

C.S

[andymusic]

Thanks for the reply

C.S

Glad to be of service sir!

[dyl232]

sun gone now in northwest wales dark clouds forming, any snow to come from these???

[andymusic]

sun gone now in northwest wales dark clouds forming, any snow to come from these???

Showers are starting to appear around north west wales

[dyl232]

Showers are starting to appear around north west wales

cheers! is there a chance of them stayin for a while into tonight? or just on and off showers?

[J10]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/60862-a-northerly-weekend/page__pid__1758231__st__0entry1758231

Blog from NW Forecaster Nick F detailing the chance of more pronounced snow for Wales overnight into tomorrow.

[andymusic]

cheers! is there a chance of them stayin for a while into tonight? or just on and off showers?

you are likely to get the lion's share of these showers over the next 24 hours or so!

[keithlucky]

Must be snow on the way met office updated weather warnings earley.

[Angleseylad]

Just had a heavy hail shower....everything white

[andymusic]

GFS 12z - once again as last night - only milder (6c) for one day next week - Tuesday - then here we go - into the freeze proper!

[dyl232]

you are likely to get the lion's share of these showers over the next 24 hours or so!

ta rainin here at the moment lol

[andymusic]

ta rainin here at the moment lol

where are u - it's not in your signature - if you're on the coast - that may be causing it - but tonight it'll be much colder so you should get snow then!

[Cwmbran Eira]

Whats the thoughts for Cwmbran. Are we too far east to catch the showers?

Clear skies 1.8C at the moment.

[andymusic]

Whats the thoughts for Cwmbran. Are we too far east to catch the showers?

Clear skies 1.8C at the moment.

Nope - should get them tomorrow

[TonyH]

Not reading them right Tony - GFS is actually a mega upgrade in the short term - as was predicted and talked about in the model thread - not allowing the milder air in for long at all now - just one day next week - tuesday before plunging back into the cold air wednesday and then our journey towards more eastern promise (not an advert for fry's turkish delight) cause this ain't gonna be hot, it's gonna be a cold blast with (once the cold is in) lots of snow!

Its ok I can read thanks Andy. When I checked at 10am this morning the concensus was that GFS (12Z) had gone away markedly from the easterly- I guess its just changed its mind as usual on the 6Z which I have not looked at yet. Its all uncertain still I am led to believe by the concensus on the Model thread. In any case a week ahead is an uncertainty, especially with the models this Winter! Short term well it may stay coldish next week if we are in 'No Mans Land', I was just stating the uncertainty regarding a very cold easterly, or is it a cert?