Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion:

[andymusic]

Once again the GFS model is really giving us something to get our teeth into - some wonderful prospects for lots of snow and freezing temps and again after the 8th Feb a big freeze!

Not reading them right Tony - GFS is actually a mega upgrade in the short term - as was predicted and talked about in the model thread - not allowing the milder air in for long at all now - just one day next week - tuesday before plunging back into the cold air wednesday and then our journey towards more eastern promise (not an advert for fry's turkish delight) cause this ain't gonna be hot, it's gonna be a cold blast with (once the cold is in) lots of snow!

Its ok I can read thanks Andy. When I checked at 10am this morning the concensus was that GFS (12Z) had gone away markedly from the easterly- I guess its just changed its mind as usual on the 6Z which I have not looked at yet. Its all uncertain still I am led to believe by the concensus on the Model thread. In any case a week ahead is an uncertainty, especially with the models this Winter! Short term well it may stay coldish next week if we are in 'No Mans Land', I was just stating the uncertainty regarding a very cold easterly, or is it a cert?

It's ok Tony I understand - I know the GFS goes off on one occassionally - but right now it's really digging it's teeth into the current predictions and they just keep coming again and again with the same dates coming up - but now there's only one mild day - tuesday next week before we go into the cold for quite sometime! - with the potential for a lot of snow and cold temps

I gotta be honest the way it's looking for the next couple of weeks/Feb even it's gonna be a bit like chocolate easter eggs at easter, eventually you get sick of them and I think we are gonna get mighty sick of the cold and snow if what is being shown comes off - and there's a good chance it will! - rumours this cold might also go well into March!

Edited January 30, 2010 by andymusic

[liamcymro]

Light Snow here - still some snow around from last night but not much - Could see some overnight and tomorrow - Temperature here now a cold 0.6C

[Snowmadsam]

hi guys any chance of a covering of snow for carmarthshire pembrokshire border tonight?

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Looks like we will see some more snow showers perhaps midnight onwards through tomorrow.

Looking at the NAE showers moving into N, W Wales by Midnight- then these start to make progression further inland:

http://expert.weathe...013100_3012.gif

http://expert.weathe...013106_3012.gif

http://expert.weathe...013112_3012.gif

The GFS 12z slower to push the showers SE- but it eventually does.

http://charts.netwea...2/24/ukprec.png

http://charts.netwea...2/27/ukprec.png

24H Fax chart:

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax24s.gif

You can see a trough there, pushing SE looks like- so organized snow showers coming through- not just for Wales but more widespread this time going into England.

[andymusic]

hi guys any chance of a covering of snow for carmarthshire pembrokshire border tonight?

early hours tomorrow and through the rest of the day!

on radar it looks like the streamer is pepping up for you again now!

Edited January 30, 2010 by andymusic

[TonyH]

Once again the GFS model is really giving us something to get our teeth into - some wonderful prospects for lots of snow and freezing temps and again after the 8th Feb a big freeze!

It's ok Tony I understand - I know the GFS goes off on one occassionally - but right now it's really digging it's teeth into the current predictions and they just keep coming again and again with the same dates coming up - but now there's only one mild day - tuesday next week before we go into the cold for quite sometime! - with the potential for a lot of snow and cold temps

I gotta be honest the way it's looking for the next couple of weeks/Feb even it's gonna be a bit like chocolate easter eggs at easter, eventually you get sick of them and I think we are gonna get mighty sick of the cold and snow if what is being shown comes off - and there's a good chance it will! - rumours this cold might also go well into March!

Just one model though, better not mention what one of the others shows this week then...

[J10]

Looks like we will see some more snow showers perhaps midnight onwards through tomorrow.

Looking at the NAE showers moving into N, W Wales by Midnight- then these start to make progression further inland:

http://expert.weathe...013100_3012.gif

http://expert.weathe...013106_3012.gif

http://expert.weathe...013112_3012.gif

The GFS 12z slower to push the showers SE- but it eventually does.

http://charts.netwea...2/24/ukprec.png

http://charts.netwea...2/27/ukprec.png

24H Fax chart:

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax24s.gif

You can see a trough there, pushing SE looks like- so organized snow showers coming through- not just for Wales but more widespread this time going into England.

Again looking promising(and perhaps more generally) across Wales later tonight and into tomorrow. http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/weather/ianfergusson/

Again 5-10cm in favoured spots cannot be ruled out. What may help tonight, is that temps are likely to fall off quicker and with precip coming later in later tonight, any falling snow is more likely to stick compared to last night. (however as we move later into tomorrow morning, this situation is likely to reverse).

Just one model though, better not mention what one of the others shows this week then...

There is no certainty for next week, GFS looks potentially awesome, while UKMO looks like zonality central. MOst years you would fancy the zonal outcome, but perhaps not this year. GFS Ensembles (GEFS) are mixed tonight, generally on the cold side, and no real support for UKMO, but not total support for the Operational run either.

Certainly very interesting to see how the ECM looks this evening.

[andymusic]

Just one model though, better not mention what one of the others shows this week then...

various beeb presenters and the meto are betting against their own ukmo model right now and going with this idea of a strong easterly!

[matty lfc]

Regarding the Meto's refusal in bringing the easterly,i'd have to favour them over any other model at this time scale despite a very shaky few months.

I've just got this horrible feeling they've got this return of the atlantic next week spot on and there'll be much needed back slapping and respect back when they badly need it.

However,they get this wrong and at this timeframe,and there'll be very,very serious questions needing to be asked regarding their forecasters/models.An obsession with man made GW or the default setting of atlantic dominated recent winters may have messed up their models!!!

[TonyH]

The streamer is backing around again, now making it into Carms and west ceredigion rather than Pembs.

Nice and cold before it reaches here, -1.5c already.

[J10]

Regarding the Meto's refusal in bringing the easterly,i'd have to favour them over any other model at this time scale despite a very shaky few months.

I've just got this horrible feeling they've got this return of the atlantic next week spot on and there'll be much needed back slapping and respect back when they badly need it.

However,they get this wrong and at this timeframe,and there'll be very,very serious questions needing to be asked regarding their forecasters/models.An obsession with man made GW or the default setting of atlantic dominated recent winters may have messed up their models!!!

All models have had their shaky periods this winter, and UKMO has only been just behind the ECM as best model, GFS has had some horror stories this winter.

[matty lfc]

All models have had their shaky periods this winter, and UKMO has only been just behind the ECM as best model, GFS has had some horror stories this winter.

Out of curiosity,do the other models have the financial backing that the UKMO receives?

[andymusic]

Out of curiosity,do the other models have the financial backing that the UKMO receives?

GFS - American - no problem with money there

[Cymro]

yes the streamer has certainly shifted eastwards again almost in a similar position to last night, if not a bit further West, probz wont affect me but its good that this is setting up so early.

[Snowmadsam]

so will this provide me with snow tonight - for camrthenshire/ pembrokshire?

[andymusic]

yes the streamer has certainly shifted eastwards again almost in a similar position to last night, if not a bit further West, probz wont affect me but its good that this is setting up so early.

which is it west or east???????

so will this provide me with snow tonight - for camrthenshire/ pembrokshire?

a small streamer is now over or near you - just see how this develops

[Cymro]

which is it west or east???????

a small streamer is now over or near you - just see how this develops

Read again :lol: Its shifted east from earlier and is coming more into Ceredigion and Northern Carmarthenshire instead of going directly through pembrokeshire, Its not progressing as far east as last nights streamer (yet), Deall?

[andymusic]

Read again Its shifted east from earlier and is coming more into Ceredigion and Northern Carmarthenshire instead of going directly through pembrokeshire, Its not progressing as far east as last nights streamer (yet), Deall?

OK DEAL! - just read awkwardly mate that's all - enjoy the snow!

[keithlucky]

which is it west or east???????

a small streamer is now over or near you - just see how this develops

Thats what happened last night lets see if it develops as good as last night did.

[Cymro]

OK DEAL! - just read awkwardly mate that's all - enjoy the snow!

Oh no sorry pal haha you've misunderstood that as if im being sarcy,

I meant Deall, Welsh word for do you understand now not deal haha sorry,

[TonyH]

Read again Its shifted east from earlier and is coming more into Ceredigion and Northern Carmarthenshire instead of going directly through pembrokeshire, Its not progressing as far east as last nights streamer (yet), Deall?

Understood. Diolch yn fawr Adam.

Edited January 30, 2010 by Tonyh

[Cymro]

Understood. Diolch yn fawr Adam.

â chroeso, ond rwy'n siwr dy fod ti'n deall hynny fel mae

With pleasure, but i'm sure you understand that anyway ?

[Snowmadsam]

want that stramer to push westwards

[andymusic]

Understand Adam

[TonyH]

Its a fairly weak affair just now and not maintaining much over land. I suppose there is something from Midnight as well coming down though according to Jackone.