North West Cold Spell Discussion:

[Solar Cycles]

Looks like it's time to hibernate away from the model discussion thread now An Easterly is on the cards. All that SE bias grates me after a while, let's hope the GFS and UKMO are nearer the mark for next week, then the rest of the country can join in with the fun and games!

[cheshire snow]

Looks like it's time to hibernate away from the model discussion thread now An Easterly is on the cards. All that SE bias grates me after a while, let's hope the GFS and UKMO are nearer the mark for next week, then the rest of the country can join in with the fun and games!

Well said

lets get our thread back up and running.....its the best thread going

C.S

[Backtrack]

The XC Weather weather forecasts based purely on GFS data shows the cold starting on Saturday morning.

GFS shows the Easterly turning to a Northerly too on Monday night.

Wow, i've just looked at the GFS. It shows 3 days of solid snow for the north west.

It also shows the cold lasting 8-10 days.

Actually, scrap my post above, i've just looked properly, it shows the cold lasting to the 20th Feb! :lol:

Wow, imagine that!

[snowdrifter]

The XC Weather weather forecasts based purely on GFS data shows the cold starting on Saturday morning.

GFS shows the Easterly turning to a Northerly too on Monday night.

Wow, i've just looked at the GFS. It shows 3 days of solid snow for the north west.

It also shows the cold lasting 8-10 days.

Actually, scrap my post above, i've just looked properly, it shows the cold lasting to the 20th Feb! :lol:

Wow, imagine that!

I am, and it's good! Yea, saw that northerly BT, and the NW could do v well indeed. Didn't see it mentioned in the MO thread - wonder why...

[Backtrack]

Yes unfortunately the ECM would be dry for us and the bulk of the country, the GFS and the UKMO show something of an extreme scenario and I think we know that the output will trend towards the ECM.

Cold and crisp goes down well in my books Ian! Plus, we have done well this winter. Low night time lows, frosty days, and the occasional ice day is fine by me.

Plus as per the usual, at the end of the spell when the prevailing wind turns back Westerly, im sure there will be somewhat of a battleground situation, just like yesterday, except that was with North to South.

Looks like a good cold spell even if the ECM does trend toward a dry 10-12 days. :lol:

I am, and it's good! Yea, saw that northerly BT, and the NW could do v well indeed. Didn't see it mentioned in the MO thread - wonder why...

Yes, it COULD turn out a good event for the Northwest yet again, but as Ian pointed out in the above post, the ECM is trending toward a dry cold spell, with snow confined to Easterly locations.

Edited February 4, 2010 by Backtrack

[Mark.C]

If i remember correctly during the December cold spell we were watching the showers coming in from the east and very few made it across the pennines.

The winds turned to the north a short time later bringing us snow via Irish sea streamers on 21st dec then a narrow band of fairly intense snow moved up from the south on the evening of the 23rd.

Prior to this were we looking at similar model outputs to the ones showing on the charts now? (if this makes any sense!)

[Backtrack]

If i remember correctly during the December cold spell we were watching the showers coming in from the east and very few made it across the pennines.

The winds turned to the north a short time later bringing us snow via Irish sea streamers on 21st dec then a narrow band of fairly intense snow moved up from the south on the evening of the 23rd.

Prior to this were we looking at similar model outputs to the ones showing on the charts now? (if this makes any sense!)

Pretty much, although this time winds will be north easterly, not north westerly, meaning that the irish sea will not mess with the temperatures near the coastal regions (such as yourself) Of course, if i'm wrong and the winds do switch north westerly, the showers will have more convection, resulting in heavy hail and grauple, with temps down to freezing during showers, but afterwards, back up to 4c because of the Irish sea.

[stoke weather watch]

Any idea guys on when the next cold spell will start and how cold it will get?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Any idea guys on when the next cold spell will start and how cold it will get?

tues 9th Feb, long way to go yet, but hope for some snow

[sconetone]

Gawd if it's just gonna be that easterley the SE thread will be going mad again!

Lets face it, if 20 grains of graupel fall in a small hamlet in Essex, there are about 40 pages of posts about it in the thread.

In the space of 5 minutes

Bless 'em

End of week might be fun for me, I drive up to Inverness for a few days on Saturday 13th.

[cheshire snow]

GFS is our best friend

snow and more snow.....all kicking off Monday Lol

C.S

[LiverBird]

GFS is our best friend

snow and more snow.....all kicking off Monday Lol

C.S

If the GFS is being optimistic for our area, and the ECM pessimistic, and the forecasts actually turn out to be somewhere in the middle....

....will the North West get snow?????

[Backtrack]

Yes.

[Weather-history]

After what has happened this winter, I would not discount further snow possibilities.

I remember ECM was suggesting dry weather during early January and we ended up having the biggest snowfall for years.

[chris78]

Realistically what are chances of snow this far west from an easterly, it must be almost 0 for here, I base this on the fact the jan snow was the worst here for some say 30 years. I assume in that time there have been lots of big easterlies. Would be really grateful if someone could proove me wrong and point to past easterlies that did effect the west coast.

[cheshire snow]

Realistically what are chances of snow this far west from an easterly, it must be almost 0 for here, I base this on the fact the jan snow was the worst here for some say 30 years. I assume in that time there have been lots of big easterlies. Would be really grateful if someone could proove me wrong and point to past easterlies that did effect the west coast.

Depends on the strength of the wind,not going to be an easterly all the time anyway wind direction changing to a NE,and a Northerly

also the sun will be slightly stronger so that will help pep up the showers as well all to play for

C.S

[Snow free zone]

Realistically what are chances of snow this far west from an easterly, it must be almost 0 for here, I base this on the fact the jan snow was the worst here for some say 30 years. I assume in that time there have been lots of big easterlies. Would be really grateful if someone could proove me wrong and point to past easterlies that did effect the west coast.

I hope somebody will help me out on this but I am sure we got our 1st snowfall of this winter from an Easterly. Thurs 17th Dec if I remember that started a run of days where we had snow cover for over 10 days.

I suppose it all depends on troughs and wind strength etc, we don't normally get much but we have already had a snowfall from one this winter here.

[Backtrack]

Like both myself, and Cheshire Snow posted above, the wind will not always be Easterly, it will be changing to North, and North East. North East is bad because it has to cross the bulk of the Pennines, but sometimes the wind may switch to North West, meaning some convective showers will be pulled in from the Irish sea, and this time, it wont modify the temperature because it isnt a full on Westerly!

[les1234]

Looking good for next week .The MOD are already ramping it up and saying it will be a snow fest for the SE&Sth only,But i think we shall do pretty good from it too.

I'm looking forward to seeing all the northwest post next week and yes its already been the best winter for years but i really think this coming cold spell will be something quite special.

[Solar Cycles]

At this moment in time, I can't see the NW being in the firing line of any snow. The High Pressure is too close, that needs to be further North for us. But it's still a few days away, so plenty of time for more drama!

[Thunder Snow]

Agreed with the post above, apart from a few light snow showers. Most of the drama is to our East

[les1234]

At this moment in time, I can't see the NW being in the firing line of any snow. The High Pressure is too close, that needs to be further North for us. But it's still a few days away, so plenty of time for more drama!

Agreed with the post above, apart from a few light snow showers. Most of the drama is to our East

You sound like you are writing it of before its even started, common this is the Northwest we don't give up.

[Solar Cycles]

You sound like you are writing it of before its even started, common this is the Northwest we don't give up.

It's not a case of giving up, that's how things look at the moment. Like I stated, still time for more drama!

[Thunder Snow]

I am not giving up as you put it, but solar is right at present most of the snow is going to be to our East. However there can be alot of suprises with showers making there way well inland. However at the moment on the current models there's going to be no major snow action here, there is plenty of time for this to change though. So no one is giving up

Just to let you know my forecast will be updated around 8pm tomorrow, just alittle busy at work this week

See you soon.

Regards TS

[Backtrack]

Including convective showers from the Irish sea if the wind switches to NW for a time.