North West Cold Spell Discussion:

[Weather-history]

As I said before after what has happened this winter, I wouldn't be surprised if we get further snow. Easterlies have delivered little in the way of snow this winter, even in the SE, apart from that brief one just before Christmas. The story of this winter has been look north, that is where the really cold and snowy episodes have come from. I remember the comments around New Year about how dry it was looking for the NW and as we now know, some parts had their biggest and most disruptive snowfalls for years.

That low that gave all that snow was not really picked up until it was almost on top of us.

As recent as last Sunday, a few places got far more snow than was forecast the night before.

[Thunder Snow]

Yes that is true, i do feel there is going to be some suprises. As with any cold spell, its proberly going to be a now cast event. Although if you took this mornings runs as our forecast, we might see a snowy start (light in nature). However as we move into the middle part of the week, its gonna be cold and dry. If you asked me this question yesturday when the 12z run was out, i would of been VERY excited indeed with quite alot of snow possible. Just goes to show how quick it can change.

[Backtrack]

Like I said, winds will be northerly for a time, meaning we will catch some snow showers.

[Solar Cycles]

If your hoping for snow next week, don't look at the ECM!

[snowingtequila]

If your hoping for snow next week, don't look at the ECM!

Sorry, don't accept that at all. It is too early to be so specific sbout snowfall. People need to go back to the things they were saying in this thread during the last two cold spells. The amount of times I read people stating that the NW would not get snow was just silly. I had 8 inches before Christmas and a foot in January. The ECM could easily bring snow to the northwest, just because you see high pressure does not mean it won't snow.

[Solar Cycles]

Sorry, don't accept that at all. It is too early to be so specific sbout snowfall. People need to go back to the things they were saying in this thread during the last two cold spells. The amount of times I read people stating that the NW would not get snow was just silly. I had 8 inches before Christmas and a foot in January. The ECM could easily bring snow to the northwest, just because you see high pressure does not mean it won't snow.

Just going of what is being shown on the ECM chart, of course these will chop and change, but as it stands it looks dry for us! Personally I feel late next week we will see snow, but that's a long way out!

[cheshire snow]

Just going of what is being shown on the ECM chart, of course these will chop and change, but as it stands it looks dry for us! Personally I feel late next week we will see snow, but that's a long way out!

Evening all

Caught the 12z before leaving work and my hopes were high,get home and see the ECM and in terms of snow as you say not good

i still have a feeling the ECM is not 100% on board and whilst you cannot dismiss it i just have a feeling the UKMO and the GFS are

nearer the mark,and thats not just because i want the snow,if i remember rightly the GFS predicted our Jan cold spell well out into

FI just as it has pulled this up-coming spell from the depths of FI,whilst the ECM has had major wobbles,only 3 days ago the ECM

was giving southern england temps of 17c by this weekend whist the UKMO has been consistant from day 1,yes the GFS had a wobble

earlier in the week,but since them has been well on board with the UKMO

all to play for in the next 10 days at least,in terms of snow lets see,we will hopefully see some but were and when will come

down to now casting

all eyes down for the 18z in half an hour

C.S

[snowingtequila]

Just going of what is being shown on the ECM chart, of course these will chop and change, but as it stands it looks dry for us! Personally I feel late next week we will see snow, but that's a long way out!

You cannot predict precipitation on the ECM chart that far out. The northwest is a large varied region but I am not convinced the ECM is such a dry run for us all.

[damianslaw]

Upstream signals support retorgression of the high towards Greenland, this will change the flow for a more NE-E quarter to anything between NW-NE later next week, with trough development we would be in the firing for snow and every chance low heights will develop to the NE.

Who knows we could be in polar low territory, watch everyones eyes turning to the north next week rather than east.

Edited February 5, 2010 by damianslaw

[lukemc]

Hi,

What sort of temperatures could we expect next week could we expect harsh or severe frosts at night with temps down to -5C or below and not getting much above freezing during daylight hours for example could the frosts be comparable to early January but without snowcover (assuming that we don't have snowcover by this stage)?

Luke

[Weather-history]

If your hoping for snow next week, don't look at the ECM!

I always find that forecasts generally underestimate snowfalls from an easterly. Too often "the odd snow flurry" turns out to be even more than that. One of the biggest snowfalls of the 1990s for the Manchester area came on the easterly flow of January 1996.

[alr1970]

I always find that forecasts generally underestimate snowfalls from an easterly. Too often "the odd snow flurry" turns out to be even more than that. One of the biggest snowfalls of the 1990s for the Manchester area came on the easterly flow of January 1996.

It can't possibly beat the 5th though, can it?!!!

Andrew

[snowdrifter]

Upstream signals support retorgression of the high towards Greenland, this will change the flow for a more NE-E quarter to anything between NW-NE later next week, with trough development we would be in the firing for snow and every chance low heights will develop to the NE.

Who knows we could be in polar low territory, watch everyones eyes turning to the north next week rather than east.

Great post dl - retrogression of the high is the key factor indeed for the NW. If this did let in a nw/nnw flow, the chances of troughs developing a la early Jan would def be there. I would so love a polar low to come knocking. btw, tomorrow is the 6th Feb, the 14th anniversary of THAT stalling front. Looking forward to sharing the up-coming roller-coaster! Cheers guys!

EDIT just read this - its a bit disjointed sorry - had a few Friday night cans!

Edited February 5, 2010 by snowdrifter

[Bartlett Low]

I see there's more pathetic bickering in the Model thread - I'm looking forward to another cool / cold spell - lets face it the winter has been full of them. And as somebody posted recently the North West has done pretty well out of it so far.

Anyone would think there had been no winter whatsoever in certain regions of the country, from what I can acertain most areas had a least a few decent snow falls. There are defintely a few "well respected" members of this site that have gone down in my estimation with constant IMBY tunnel vision and blatant incorrect calls based on T+240 models and even more stupid pronouncements like "this will make the January sold spell pale into insignificance". Well, that comment was a few weeks back and it has yet to happen. And won't. There will be nothing from the remainder of the winter to surpass the January event. Don't get me wrong. I'd love there to be but it's a big ask. A huge ask.

The reason I'm posting this on the North West thread rather than the main model thread is I know for certain it would be deleted - god knows what the Scottish folk think after the coldest Dec/Jan since records began in 1914. Maybe they've had enough - I know I'm getting to that point with some of the model discussion posters.

Edited February 5, 2010 by Bartlett Low

[Solar Cycles]

You cannot predict precipitation on the ECM chart that far out. The northwest is a large varied region but I am not convinced the ECM is such a dry run for us all.

Still looking dry for most of the NW until after midweek, this is what I said yesterday. Any ppn will be reserved for the East And South East of the country, until late in the week. Thereafter ppn will be much more widespread, again this may well change!

[Backtrack]

Im not bothered where the precip falls, im heading to the east anyway on 13th.

[LiverBird]

What are you guys thinking of the models today? Any major changes in our direction?

[martinj2]

aAAARGH............FOG HERE! pity it coundn't fallen earlier at Anfiield

[Thunder Snow]

My latest forecast is now avaliable in my sig, if we go by the 12z there could be quite abit of snow for our area. However this is no by means certain.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

definitely snow chances going by GFS 12Z, but no snow at all going by ECMWF 12Z, thats of course not counting the fantasy northerly, thats too far in FI

[lukemc]

But even if we don't get much in the way of snow this week we should see our coldest temps since early January surely? What sort of temps could we expect in my area (Liverpool) could we get down to -5 or even below considering that the wind will be coming from the east so the airmass would be less likely to be modified by the Irish Sea? Also if we did get snow would even lower temperatures be possible and would it stay on the ground for more than a day or so considering the low temperatures? And I have heard a lot about ice days being less common in February due to the longer days and stronger sun but they are still possible even into March in some cases - what sort of synoptics are likely to result in ice days in February? Also does anyone see the potential for us being hit heavily by snow when the breakdown comes (e.g. from an attacking LP or a stalling front) like February 1996 if something like that happened it would certainly be the icing on the cake for us this winter agreed! Are the synoptics being modeled at the moment in anyway similar to early February 1996 - what was the synoptic situation before the Atlantic attacked then?

[snowdrifter]

aAAARGH............FOG HERE! pity it coundn't fallen earlier at Anfiield

Yeah just drove home from my sister's in Bury - fog was scarily thick. Still hoping for some snow at some point somehow!! Not v scientific but weyhey.

[Slowpoke]

Fog is ridiculous I actually felt uncomfortable driving home from work in it. Ah well, getting ready for a bingey night now!!! Bring on the snow, it was a great treat last Saturday/Sunday morning walking home from town.

[Mark.C]

If anyone remembers, there were a couple of nights of severe fog just before the december cold spell.

[Thunder Snow]

The start of the 18z looks really good for the start of the week for our area, with some quite widespread snow showers. Although snow threat moves towards the east for the middle part.

Edited February 6, 2010 by Thunder Snow