Polar Shift

[Backtrack]

I read on a site yesterday that if the polar shift is quick enough, it could cause the earth to become unstable along with the atmosphere, allowing the sun to become too hot for the earth to be inhabitable?

Ive been worried since i read it, even though it's due in 2012.

How true is this?

[Solar Cycles]

I read on a site yesterday that if the polar shift is quick enough, it could cause the earth to become unstable along with the atmosphere, allowing the sun to become too hot for the earth to be inhabitable?

Ive been worried since i read it, even though it's due in 2012.

How true is this?

I was under the impression that polar shifts don't just happen overnight?

[Methuselah]

It probably (P>0.999999999999999999999999999999999999) isn't true at all??

[Backtrack]

They said, if it's a process that happens over 200 years, all is well, but if it's very quick, what i posted above could happen, as i say, im worried....

It probably (P>0.999999999999999999999999999999999999) isn't true at all??

what does that mean

[Methuselah]

They said, if it's a process that happens over 200 years, all is well, but if it's very quick, what i posted above could happen, as i say, im worried....

what does that mean

That the probability of terrestrial meltown in 2102 is as near to zero as you can get...So, don't worry about it!

[Backtrack]

That the probability of terrestrial meltown in 2102 is as near to zero as you can get...So, don't worry about it!

Thanks Pete

[Methuselah]

Thanks Pete

You're welcome...

[Jane Louise]

2012 is not the end of the world and no polar shifts or cosmic disasters are going to happen!!it's all a load of rubbish Lol.... there's no need to worry

[Backtrack]

Thanks everyone

[Methuselah]

On a brighter note, I wonder if the MetO will forecast a BBQ Summer in 2012??

[SP1986]

Maybe a nice bit of cosmic coal can help warm us up

Oh dear that's as immoral as I could get really.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

The sun is due to go through a polar shift in 2012, but then it did the same in 2001 and so on and so forth.

Basically, the peak of the suns output in each cycle. Not sure that will make it unbearably hot down here... one can hope I suppose

[Mondy]

I'd like to know when the Sun has gone through its magnetic pole shift because it's taking its time so far.

[jethro]

I read on a site yesterday that if the polar shift is quick enough, it could cause the earth to become unstable along with the atmosphere, allowing the sun to become too hot for the earth to be inhabitable?

Ive been worried since i read it, even though it's due in 2012.

How true is this?

When you say Polar shift are you talking about magnetic reversal? North becoming South, South becoming North?

Magnetic reversals have happened quite a few times in the past, some have been fairly rapid, others slowly, either way, there is nothing in the Geological records to suggest there are catastrophic consequences.

The Pole is in constant motion, it meanders all over the place, last seen heading off into Russia. The strength of the magnetic field has been decreasing over recent decades, some say this will lead to a reversal but consensus is, if and when it happens, it will be eons in the future - long after we're all gone.

Nowt to worry about.

[Backtrack]

When you say Polar shift are you talking about magnetic reversal? North becoming South, South becoming North?

Magnetic reversals have happened quite a few times in the past, some have been fairly rapid, others slowly, either way, there is nothing in the Geological records to suggest there are catastrophic consequences.

The Pole is in constant motion, it meanders all over the place, last seen heading off into Russia. The strength of the magnetic field has been decreasing over recent decades, some say this will lead to a reversal but consensus is, if and when it happens, it will be eons in the future - long after we're all gone.

Nowt to worry about.

Yes, thats what I was talking about. If you say eons in the future how come I read it was happening in 2012?

But thanks for your informative reply! My worry is actually almost all gone.

[snowray]

Yes, thats what I was talking about. If you say eons in the future how come I read it was happening in 2012?

But thanks for your informative reply! My worry is actually almost all gone.

A guy called Gregg Braden has been going on about 2012 for some time now re Mayan prophesies, galactic alignments and pole shifts. He was reputed to have been a Nasa Scientist but now I hear that he was just one of their IT guys, who can say though.

Theres lots of his stuff on U Tube.

Also, if you look up Doomsday, The mayan Calender and 2012 part 1 and 2 on google, theres a lot of Science or Pseudo Science and a lot od doomsday stuff, interesting, but quite far fetched at times, end result is that we are going to be zapped by cosmic rays from the Milkey Ways galactic Centre on 21 12 2012. The chap here is Dan Eden.

If anyone gets the chance to have a look, I'd be very interested in their opinions, since most of it is well over my head.

Regards

Snowray

[full_frontal_occlusion]

Yes, thats what I was talking about. If you say eons in the future how come I read it was happening in 2012?

Solar pole reversal is linked to the sunspot cycle which is averaged at 11 years with the next maximum due around 2012 - 2014. However the sun has only just begun to emerge from solar minimum after the longest minimum period for the last 100 years. So it's still a guess when the next flip will happen.

The earth also goes through magnetic pole reversal but since the last one was estimated at 750,000 years ago, nobody (not even NASA) can possibly know when the next one will happen.

Then there are the popular doomsday rumours that predict death and destruction. Again it does not take too much effort to realise the earth (therefore all life) has survived probably several thousand of these events with no apparent ill effects, so its safe to assume humans will survive also when it finally does happen.

As for modern infrastructure? Again a rudimentary knowledge of physics (GCSE) is all that's needed to allay fear: Most will know that a chamging magnetic field induces both physical force and electric current in a conductor. Both force and current depend on a. the strength of the magnetic field and b. the rate at which that field changes.

The earths magnetic field is physically very weak at the earths surface - barely capable of deflecting a compass needle. It does however extend over great distances out into space and can deflect (atomic scale) cosmic particles because of this scale. It's effect on even small sized objects (say a pin resting on a table) are utterly ignored.

If however, the earths magnetic field changed rapidly say within a few seconds, large currents can be induced in large scale conductors - the national grid comes to mind. In this case global electricity distribution could be disrupted and power surges may affect anything connected to it. Akin to a lightning strike for instance.

There is no evidence to suggest that reversal has ever happened with such rapidity, the most likely being decades or centuries. On this tiemscale, the reversal will be utterly imperceptible.

Aside from all this, one can't take everything read at face value. Choose your sources of scientific reading wisely - general science monthlies (Scientific American, National Geographic etc.) are excellent sources for fact based science. Treat science-fiction type magazines with a very healthy dose of scepticism (Fortean Times, lads mags etc.) Don't believe websites that focus on conspiracy, armageddon, Mayan calandars, UFO's, x-files, area 51 etc. Remember that the tabloid press tends to sensationalise headlines using fear and misconception to generate sales.

A good starting point for finding out genuine fact based science is listed here: List of popular science scources

Above all, don't worry.

ffO.

Edited February 5, 2010 by full_frontal_occlusion

[jethro]

Yes, thats what I was talking about. If you say eons in the future how come I read it was happening in 2012?

But thanks for your informative reply! My worry is actually almost all gone.

I would imagine the date of 2012 has more to do with the Mayan calendar and doomsday prophecies than actual science. No one can accurately predict if, or when a magnetic reversal may happen, all they can do is examine past reversals in the Geological record and guage how long it took and what the impacts were.

I started a thread quite some time ago over in the climate section about this - there appears to be some connection to climate in the temperature record.

As it's quite a while ago, I would expect some of the links to now be dead. I've picked out a few here for you to have a read through. As you will see, studies are in-depth and on-going, the position and strength are constantly being monitored; and reversal would be spotted long before it happened. Apart from the problems with power outlined by FFO and the obvious problems with navigation, I doubt anyone would notice if the Poles flipped tomorrow.

http://gsc.nrcan.gc.ca/geomag/field/sec_e.php

http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/

http://sait.oat.ts.astro.it/MSAIt760405/PDF/2005MmSAI..76..957D.pdf

http://gsc.nrcan.gc.ca/geomag/nmp/long_mvt_nmp_e.php

http://www.jyi.org/news/nb.php?id=641

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/2889127.stm

[Backtrack]

Thanks for the reply, i'd rather not click the links, it would probably make me worry again.

Thanks anyway mate!!

I would imagine the date of 2012 has more to do with the Mayan calendar and doomsday prophecies than actual science. No one can accurately predict if, or when a magnetic reversal may happen, all they can do is examine past reversals in the Geological record and guage how long it took and what the impacts were.

I started a thread quite some time ago over in the climate section about this - there appears to be some connection to climate in the temperature record.

http://forum.netweat...magnetic-field/

As it's quite a while ago, I would expect some of the links to now be dead. I've picked out a few here for you to have a read through. As you will see, studies are in-depth and on-going, the position and strength are constantly being monitored; and reversal would be spotted long before it happened. Apart from the problems with power outlined by FFO and the obvious problems with navigation, I doubt anyone would notice if the Poles flipped tomorrow.

http://gsc.nrcan.gc....field/sec_e.php

http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/

http://sait.oat.ts.a...I..76..957D.pdf

http://gsc.nrcan.gc....g_mvt_nmp_e.php

http://www.jyi.org/news/nb.php?id=641

http://news.bbc.co.u...ech/2889127.stm

also, what did you mean by:

Apart from the problems with power outlined by FFO and the obvious problems with navigation

[azores92]

Thanks for the reply, i'd rather not click the links, it would probably make me worry again. :lol:

Thanks anyway mate!!

also, what did you mean by:

Apart from the problems with power outlined by FFO and the obvious problems with navigation

i think it means about compass directions would be completely different if the poles shifted. im the same as you mate, little things that you read on these websites just worries me loads. some of the things ive read in the past, especially about comets and asteroids, and how some objects could only be picked up a matter of days beforehand, just really sets me off. the thing is though, although these things can happen, and some of the websites make them seem like a natural occurrence, the chances of it happening are still small. you just have to live life to the full, human life on planet earth hasnt been around forever, and has to finish somewhere, lets hope its not for millions of years. its like a chain of bad luck though, once you've read something you wish you wouldnt have read, more of the stuff comes your way.

[A.J]

2012 is not the end of the world and no polar shifts or cosmic disasters are going to happen!!it's all a load of rubbish Lol.... there's no need to worry

Absolutely Jane, it will not end in 2012, I was thinking about it probably ending in a few weeks time when the LHC fires up again so powerfully that it causes a vacuum bubble to form, thus a cosmic phase transition will spread out at the speed of light, changing the laws of Physics as it does, causing us all to cease to exist, and my final fading thoughts will be ...."bloody mayans, they didnt get that one right, did they?"...

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Solar pole reversal is linked to the sunspot cycle which is averaged at 11 years with the next maximum due around 2012 - 2014. However the sun has only just begun to emerge from solar minimum after the longest minimum period for the last 100 years. So it's still a guess when the next flip will happen.

The earth also goes through magnetic pole reversal but since the last one was estimated at 750,000 years ago, nobody (not even NASA) can possibly know when the next one will happen.

Then there are the popular doomsday rumours that predict death and destruction. Again it does not take too much effort to realise the earth (therefore all life) has survived probably several thousand of these events with no apparent ill effects, so its safe to assume humans will survive also when it finally does happen.

As for modern infrastructure? Again a rudimentary knowledge of physics (GCSE) is all that's needed to allay fear: Most will know that a chamging magnetic field induces both physical force and electric current in a conductor. Both force and current depend on a. the strength of the magnetic field and b. the rate at which that field changes.

The earths magnetic field is physically very weak at the earths surface - barely capable of deflecting a compass needle. It does however extend over great distances out into space and can deflect (atomic scale) cosmic particles because of this scale. It's effect on even small sized objects (say a pin resting on a table) are utterly ignored.

If however, the earths magnetic field changed rapidly say within a few seconds, large currents can be induced in large scale conductors - the national grid comes to mind. In this case global electricity distribution could be disrupted and power surges may affect anything connected to it. Akin to a lightning strike for instance.

There is no evidence to suggest that reversal has ever happened with such rapidity, the most likely being decades or centuries. On this tiemscale, the reversal will be utterly imperceptible.

Aside from all this, one can't take everything read at face value. Choose your sources of scientific reading wisely - general science monthlies (Scientific American, National Geographic etc.) are excellent sources for fact based science. Treat science-fiction type magazines with a very healthy dose of scepticism (Fortean Times, lads mags etc.) Don't believe websites that focus on conspiracy, armageddon, Mayan calandars, UFO's, x-files, area 51 etc. Remember that the tabloid press tends to sensationalise headlines using fear and misconception to generate sales.

A good starting point for finding out genuine fact based science is listed here: List of popular science scources

Above all, don't worry.

ffO.

Excellent summary, factual and to the point - you'd never make a Daily Mail journalist !!!

[Optimus Prime]

I'm still waiting for the Millennium Bug.

[mountain shadow]

I find it strange that some think the Mayans have predicted the end of the world, when they couldn't predict their own destruction by the Spanish.

[Gray-Wolf]

If the Mayan predictions are an extension of their observations then any 'end time' would be far easier to predict than an invasion by foreigners?

If my limited understanding is correct they refer back to past 'end times' and then work out when the next one is due from the spacing between them. We would ,of course, have to accept that they had many thousands of years of data at their disposal though.