Model Output Discussion:

[loopydreamer]

ECM is very different to UKMO and GFS already. Not in a good way if you like snow.

yep! lost ya there barb

thought it was looking good! im missing somthing here!

[MR EXTREMES]

Mainly a more SE event from the ECM in keeping with its last few runs, still very cold for all pretty much though it seems.

Ian, will be interesting to see what the 144hrs chart shows, I think the upper high will probably build further north given the med low is deepening and the upper low further west is becoming much better alinged but who knows of course, its all just guess work!

Any developing upper high may well break off the easterly though, remians to be seen!

and if this happens then it only helps to prolong the cold for longers i think the ecm is being fairly progressive.

edit:theres the t144 and its looking good.

maybe not sorry guys its sinking high not good at all.

Edited February 5, 2010 by badboy657

[kold weather]

Still got a easterly flow at 144hrs, upper high developing towards Iceland. Not quite as cold as the GFS/UKMO though it has to be said but probably still cold enough, though probably not much snow away from the SE on this run again.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

slightly better ecm, but not great, better than 00Z at 144, but still dry away from E and SE, but hopefully trending the right way

[TEITS]

ECM is very good for E Anglia/SE with snow showers moving inland I would assume. However for more N areas you would need the HP to be centred further N. The N limit of convection based on the ECM is probably around Lincs I would guess although I could be way off the mark!

Excellent +168 chart.

Edited February 5, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM seems to look different to most of the other models tonight in the 96-144 hours timeframe. I expect that it will be the ECM that backtracks on the 00z.....

[snowray]

This is turning into a disaster for snow prospects away from EA and the SE.

ECM T144 in all its glory, or mm, not.

[ribster]

He is probably packing for Greece after last night's false triumphalism.

ECM is lowering heights over Greenland, this could see HP sitting on top of us from T144-192.

Looks like they are building again at T120 to me....

And indeed they have built further at T144, also much better position of the high.

+144...

Hmmm, pretty potent

You have posted the 0z there...

Edited February 5, 2010 by ribster

[Cheshire Freeze]

and if this happens then it only helps to prolong the cold for longers i think the ecm is being fairly progressive.

edit:theres the t144 and its looking good.

maybe not sorry guys its sinking high not good at all.

Probably keeping too much energy over the top. Normally you would expect the 12z GFS to over estimate this aspect not the ECM. Though it's a concern, I do expect the ECM to backtrack somewhat on this idea, the GEM, METO, GFS et al look completely different

Edited February 5, 2010 by CreweCold

[I remember Atlantic 252]

yeah TEITS 168 chart better for ppl like me up norf!, trending right way id say the 12Z's

chart looks a little like 10th Jan

[MR EXTREMES]

Still got a easterly flow at 144hrs, upper high developing towards Iceland. Not quite as cold as the GFS/UKMO though it has to be said but probably still cold enough, though probably not much snow away from the SE on this run again.

has to be said though its still early days.

and its still 2 big models and won lesser model against the ecm,

although its clear to me the ecm has stuck with similar charts for the last couple of days both morning and night all but last night.

i think we will have good indications tomorrow afternoon.

[Beth455]

Upper temps currently suggested are around -8/9C for Mon/Tues dropping to around -11C for Thurs. Now upper temps during our previous cold spells in Dec/Jan were similiar around -11/-12C although these values were shortlived.

The N Sea certainly isn't as warm as it was in Dec. I wouldn't fancy dipping my toes in Hunstanton.

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Reursst.gif

So the combination of both means I strongly disagree.

Hello everyone I am a newbie and I have been following all your posts with avid interest (trying to get to grips with it all!) I hope one day to be able to interpret the models as well as everyone else here, until then though thank you all for your very informative posts with regards to the models.

Also just wanted to say EYE IN THE SKY, in reference to toe dipping in Hunstanton, you have a very good point, I live in Heacham and the water is very cold!

Thanks again folks!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

think I actually prefer ecm, for the weekend to gfs

[Ian Fergusson]

No need to look at the models as Darren Bett has said the the upcoming cold special will be nothing special. He is probably the guy that tells the council not to bother buying grit!

Hardly fair to Darren but then we're well accustomed to the 'shoot-the-messenger' aspects of or work....

And incidentally - many councils and other local authorities employ various commercial weather services (including for their highways weather policy / ops), not the UKMO / OpenRoad. A point rather often conveniently forgotten by the anti-MO snipers....

[Cloud 10]

Looks like a classic easterly to northerly run from the ecm 12z.

[January Snowstorm]

Excellent ECM tonight with a potent bitter flow by 168hrs

[TEITS]

Hello everyone I am a newbie and I have been following all your posts with avid interest (trying to get to grips with it all!) I hope one day to be able to interpret the models as well as everyone else here, until then though thank you all for your very informative posts with regards to the models.

Also just wanted to say EYE IN THE SKY, in reference to toe dipping in Hunstanton, you have a very good point, I live in Heacham and the water is very cold!

Thanks again folks!

Thank you.

Well the ECM +192 is an absolute peach.

If you want later on I shall do my drawings on the ECM +192 and explain why its such an excellent chart. This might also assist in helping you read the models. You can of course always send me a PM and I will gladly answer.

P.S Won't be until 8pm till I post the chart.

[remymartin]

Does this mean a very cold but dry easterly?

[ribster]

I can't see much wrong with this:

Edit: posted wrong chart initially

Edited February 5, 2010 by ribster

[January Snowstorm]

Thank you.

Well the ECM +192 is an absolute peach.

If you want later on I shall do my drawings on the ECM +192 and explain why its such an excellent chart. This might also assist in helping you read the models. You can of course always send me a PM and I will gladly answer.

P.S Won't be until 8pm till I post the chart.

Yes and worth pointing out would give heavy snow showers to much of the South inc Ireland

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Thank you.

Well the ECM +192 is an absolute peach.

If you want later on I shall do my drawings on the ECM +192 and explain why its such an excellent chart. This might also assist in helping you read the models. You can of course always send me a PM and I will gladly answer.

P.S Won't be until 8pm till I post the chart.

From Russia with love!

Looks like the retrogression is going to show up again

[nick sussex]

I think this has been one of the most dramatic weeks in terms of the models that many of us have ever seen. Earlier in the week it was impossible to think that we would be seeing this kind of output. All the global models this evening have finally arrived at similar patterns with easterly and the high edging nw towards Greenland later on.

[shiver]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif well done Mr Brown keep jinxing that sinking high keep up the good work

[on the coast]

Hardly fair to Darren but then we're well accustomed to the 'shoot-the-messenger' aspects of or work....

And incidentally - many councils and other local authorities employ various commercial weather services (including for their highways weather policy / ops), not the UKMO / OpenRoad. A point rather often conveniently forgotten by the anti-MO snipers....

And in the 'reliable' time frame he isnt far wrong. They are using far better models than we can see.

[Beth455]

Thank you.

Well the ECM +192 is an absolute peach.

If you want later on I shall do my drawings on the ECM +192 and explain why its such an excellent chart. This might also assist in helping you read the models. You can of course always send me a PM and I will gladly answer.

P.S Won't be until 8pm till I post the chart.

Thank you, I would really appreciate that