Model Output Discussion:

[cooling climate]

Well overall some fantastic output and considering last nights 18Z and this mornings 0Zs im very pleased how the 12Zs are looking.

For me im just happy with the +72 fax chart.

http://www.wetterzen...pics/brack2.gif

A couple of points I wish to raise.

Firatly I see some are already concerned about snowfall. Well remember prior to our last cold spell my region was likely to see the heaviest snow and yet parts of NW/SW England witnessed far more snow than I did!

Secondly I see a sinking HP keeps being mentioned. Well at the moment none of the models suggest this with the ECM/GFS/GEFS mean very keen on the HP retrogressing to Greenland.

I tell you what the +72/+96 charts are far better than the mild SW,lys that were shown. This week has really been a learning experience for all of us.

I thought I would add this in reply to your post regarding some posters views on a sinking high.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 13 - 19 2010

THE PREDICTED WEEK 2 CIRCULATION PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT EXPECTED FOR THE

EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH ONLY RELATIVELY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED.

MOST MODELS ARE PREDICTING A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE EAST ATLANTIC RIDGE,

WITH ITS CENTER (BOTH FULL FIELD AND ANOMALY) NEAR SOUTHERN GREENLAND AND THE

DAVIS STRAIT, RATHER THAN ICELAND. MOST MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF

THE DEEP TROUGH (FULL HEIGHT FIELD) OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL REMAIN

NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN GENERAL OVER THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE

SEEMS REMARKABLY STABLE, THANKS TO STRONG FORCING FROM BOTH A STRONG EL NINO

AND A VERY STRONG NEGATIVE AO.

[geordiekev]

Hello all bit of a newbie to posting, after watching these models for the last 4 years, I am always intrigued and cant help but feel the joys and pains of all of those wishing for a return to 'classic' solar minimum winters

This year has definitely been one of those and I am intrigued by the suggestion of this 'sausage' high as this is a term I have not heard over the years of being a spectator.

What I was wondering is how often these types of highs verify and if anyone had any of the charts showing when they verified and can recall the outputs of such a high.

Thanks again to all on netweather for providing us backbenchers with such an invaluable and exciting insight into our islands' unique weather.

[Eugene]

This week has really been a learning experience for all of us.

Not for me it wasnt, i was very bullish about the cold winning, maybe overconfident but correct nonetheless :lol:

Fantastic runs tonight every single model is great can't see anything to moan about at all, and ensembles great indicating a possible two week cold spell, not bad for a puny weak HP cell huh

Get the cold in place first then worry about snowfall, pointless overanalysing runs too much yet.

[Frosty.]

Still quite a few differences between the 12z models for next week to iron out with regard to the hp position and scandi shortwave, the south and south east should be in a win win situation being furthest away from the high ridging down from the north but I still don't think the scandi trough will have much if any influence across northern britain due to the initial ridging and then the formation of a large anticyclone.

[Cloud 10]

Todays 12z ecm ensembles.

You can't get better agreement than that for a cold spell.

As for snow? well,the longer the cold goes on,the more places will see some.

[Lewis]

I like the ECM, i still think it's rather progressive.

The GFS and UKMO and also ensembles from the GFS in agreement in relation to the HP heading North, where as the ECM wants to put it slap bang over us..

2/3 in favour is good enough for me, i still think the ECM is playing catch up.

Interesting 18z to come

I have freeizing fog here now, with visability down to about 10 meters rofl

Edited February 5, 2010 by Storm Force Lewis

[nick sussex]

The two sets of ECM ensembles available so far tonight are very interesting and allow us even without seeing the synoptics to get a very good idea of how the synoptics could play out. Firstly the ensembles for the Netherlands, which are superb.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

Theres 50 ensemble members and over 10 days only 1 member manages anything remotely average for that region.

Now the ensembles for St.Helier, Jersey

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/d/sampler/epsgrams/europe/page.html

Here we see very good support for cold right the way through though more scatter past next Friday but the majority keep it cold, the milder members there don't down the line effect the Netherlands, from the expected set up this suggests that any Atlantic fronts would have to come from the sw, the milder members in the Channel Islands could be to do with a more likely Channel low scenario with still a very good chance that mainland UK is likely to stay in the colder air.

This all gives good support for the high retrogressing towards Greenland with the jet far south and the only possible point of attack from the sw.

Edited February 5, 2010 by nick sussex

[Freezing-Point]

Look at the comparison at T+96. Stong agreement. The energy in the surrounding low pressure systems will determine the shape and position of the high and this will determine where the most snow will fall. One thing they all agree on - HP retrogression.

ecm

gfs

ukmo

gem

[KTtom]

Todays 12z ecm ensembles.

You can't get better agreement than that for a cold spell.

As for snow? well,the longer the cold goes on,the more places will see some.

Cracking ensembles, the op even at the top end later in the run.

oh' and congratulations for kicking NS bum...c'mon Nick, slow tonight

[nick sussex]

Cracking ensembles, the op even at the top end later in the run.

oh' and congratulations for kicking NS bum...c'mon Nick, slow tonight

:lol: Yes thats because I was busy adding the Jersey ones in!

Great ensembles and looking very good for you guys and gals in the UK, down here not bad either, been a great winter for snow further down from the mountains and a few flakes look possible especially from the ECM! But I'm not supposed to be biased here!

[bluearmy]

I thought I would add this in reply to your post regarding some posters views on a sinking high.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 13 - 19 2010

THE PREDICTED WEEK 2 CIRCULATION PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT EXPECTED FOR THE

EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH ONLY RELATIVELY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED.

MOST MODELS ARE PREDICTING A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE EAST ATLANTIC RIDGE,

WITH ITS CENTER (BOTH FULL FIELD AND ANOMALY) NEAR SOUTHERN GREENLAND AND THE

DAVIS STRAIT, RATHER THAN ICELAND. MOST MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF

THE DEEP TROUGH (FULL HEIGHT FIELD) OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL REMAIN

NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN GENERAL OVER THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE

SEEMS REMARKABLY STABLE, THANKS TO STRONG FORCING FROM BOTH A STRONG EL NINO

AND A VERY STRONG NEGATIVE AO.

as per ecm t240, this retrogression allows the trough to head up to the southern part of the UK introducing the chance of frontal snowfall. i guess what happens beyond will depend on

a) how far the ridge retrogresses

b ) whether a reload from the north happens and f it does as per both of todays ecm runs, would it have the oomph to push the trough back south?

c)whether the southerly jet comes far enough norh over france to bring the trough far enough north to give a north/south divide as we saw in many seventies/eighties winters.

the trend from todays output would favour c) i think. however, as GP has posted on the in depth thread, events in the strat may make the 'reload' more potent which may mean the PF trough never gets as far north as the UK.

Edited February 5, 2010 by bluearmy

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

:lol: Yes thats because I was busy adding the Jersey ones in!

Great ensembles and looking very good for you guys and gals in the UK, down here not bad either, been a great winter for snow further down from the mountains and a few flakes look possible especially from the ECM! But I'm not supposed to be biased here!

Great stuff nick.I jst want to say thank you for your sublime no bias no hidden agenda analysis of the models.

Im sure i speak for the vast majority of NW members when i say that.

[nick sussex]

Great stuff nick.I jst want to say thank you for your sublime no bias no hidden agenda analysis of the models.

Im sure i speak for the vast majority of NW members when i say that.

:lol:

Thanks HD thats very nice of you

The GFS 18hrs run is coming out now so lets hope we finish off the day with a good run. The pattern looks consistent but where will the high set up?

[matty lfc]

Great stuff nick.I jst want to say thank you for your sublime no bias no hidden agenda analysis of the models.

Im sure i speak for the vast majority of NW members when i say that.

:lol:

Without doubt,i've learnt more about the models from Nick's posts than any others.Technical but understandable to newcomers like myself and always tries to put a realistic outlook on things,albeit good runs or bad.Been a great asset to my chart learning all winter.

Now,if only i could understand GP's posts!!!

Edited February 5, 2010 by matty lfc

[LomondSnowstorm]

Thanks HD thats very nice of you :lol:

The GFS 18hrs run is coming out now so lets hope we finish off the day with a good run. The pattern looks consistent but where will the high set up?

Mid term looks good, merely the specifics which might disappoint as always, but this is a much better place to be in than 96 hours ago when we were contemplating a mild spell - how things change!

[KTtom]

Great stuff nick.I jst want to say thank you for your sublime no bias no hidden agenda analysis of the models.

Im sure i speak for the vast majority of NW members when i say that.

Hopefully, as its quiet the mods will let me get away with this..

Totally agree with the above, I always wonder how you get 'up' for the weather here when it doesn't directly effect you?

I have also heard today that there may be a problem with ski-ing in Europe due to too much snow?!

...and just to show i'm not a bottom kisser, I still think GFS is a far superior model to ECM :lol:

Edited February 5, 2010 by KTtom

[Thundery wintry showers]

The assessment from the progged setup for next week would depend on which area of the country we're talking. I think eastern parts of England would stand a fair chance of seeing sleet/snow showers through the week, providing accumulations quite widely from midweek onwards- perhaps for a time in eastern Scotland and more generally southern England.

However I would fancy most parts of Cent + N + W Scotland, Ireland, Wales, NW England and the West Country to be dry and sunny with just isolated flurries at most getting across. A more pronounced NE flow and lower pressure would be needed to generate a near-countrywide snow event.

Further out growing support for retrogression towards Greenland from the models and the teleconnections but not a certainty yet.

[Jason T]

Evening all. JOHN HOLMES This for you have been away for a couple of days after reading through NW site Models output,and 3 counties EA discussions, I Noticed your Signature. PLEASE dont consider leaving, I take on the resposability to some posting NOT the correct dialog for the models thread. As i am no where near experianced. Its just been an magical ride over the past 10 days through the models, As the MODELS have created true emotional feeling through ALL posting, As most have said rollercoaster.

My point is that as i am a complete newby i will just monitor and watch on the MODELS thread and i hope others of less XP follow.

Sincerely apologise JH

.SILVERLINE (JT)

[MR EXTREMES]

Thanks HD thats very nice of you :lol:

The GFS 18hrs run is coming out now so lets hope we finish off the day with a good run. The pattern looks consistent but where will the high set up?

great post thats what i like to hear he likes the snowy cold weather certain of that,

but one thing hes not is bias.

theres lots going on right now with the models and although there all on agreement with cold the finer detail is yet to come.

and i to would like to thank all those john holmes gp bfp ofcorse nick sussex steve murr tws oh god id be hear all night this what makes this the best thread on the net.

but regardless ian brown being a coldie even hes contributed to this forum as you all have the models are in agreement we will get cold thats good enough for me.

now ive been down the pub for a few i wonder if the latest has aswell lmao:drinks:

[J10]

Hopefully, as its quiet the mods will let me get away with this..

Totally agree with the above, I always wonder how you get 'up' for the weather here when it doesn't directly effect you?

I have also heard today that there may be a problem with ski-ing in Europe due to too much snow?!

http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/snowreports/overview/default.aspx it has turned slighlty milder across the Alps over recent days, but this is a short term blip.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/61200-alps-forecast-14/

[nick sussex]

Hopefully, as its quiet the mods will let me get away with this..

Totally agree with the above, I always wonder how you get 'up' for the weather here when it doesn't directly effect you?

I have also heard today that there may be a problem with ski-ing in Europe due to too much snow?!

...and just to show i'm not a bottom kisser, I still think GFS is a far superior model to ECM :lol:

I hope the mods don't mind me replying here, well KT at the end of the day I still love the UK and have suffered many mild winters with everyone on here when I was still over there so I'm still you could say a UK cold and snow lover by proxy! It's great to have seen such a good winter for everyone over there. Also I'm very lucky here, living just to the north of the Pyrenees, I can see the snow covered mountains every day in the winter and they're just up the road so I suppose now I can always jump in the car if we don't get snow lower down in the valley. So perhaps now I'm a bit more relaxed about the models although I am still prone to the odd melodramatic post!

Again thankyou all for those nice words, back to the models and you can tell already by the early stages that this could be a good run.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I hope the mods don't mind me replying here, well KT at the end of the day I still love the UK and have suffered many mild winters with everyone on here when I was still over there so I'm still you could say a UK cold and snow lover by proxy! It's great to have seen such a good winter for everyone over there. Also I'm very lucky here, living just to the north of the Pyrenees, I can see the snow covered mountains every day in the winter and they're just up the road so I suppose now I can always jump in the car if we don't get snow lower down in the valley. So perhaps now I'm a bit more relaxed about the models although I am still prone to the odd melodramatic post!

Again thankyou all for those nice words, back to the models and you can tell already by the early stages that this could be a good run.

I noticed this - shortwave larger and further west than 12Z http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-48.png?18 http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-54.png?12

[johnholmes]

Evening all. JOHN HOLMES This for you have been away for a couple of days after reading through NW site Models output,and 3 counties EA discussions, I Noticed your Signature. PLEASE dont consider leaving, I take on the responsibility to some posting NOT the correct dialog for the models thread. As i am no where near experienced. Its just been an magical ride over the past 10 days through the models, As the MODELS have created true emotional feeling through ALL posting, As most have said rollercoaster.

My point is that as i am a complete newby i will just monitor and watch on the MODELS thread and i hope others of less XP follow.

Sincerely apologise JH

.SILVERLINE (JT)

thank you JT

last evening was probably about the worst the model thread has ever got in the 4-5 years I've been on it-hence my short fuse lighting!

There are a number of posters who you can trust to give a pretty balanced view of things, as well as the 'official team', they are the ones with different colours with their avatar. I'm sure you will soon learn who the genuine posters are and who enjoy either the wind up-cold or mild and those who enjoy posting what I call silly one liners.

By all means ask questions on the open forum, most of us are weather nuts and can bore the socks of everyone about the weather but now and again you will get a 'nugget' of information! If you are wary of asking in the open then do pm any of those you feel are giving out sensible guidance-like me I'm sure they will be happy to reply. I noticed TEITS doing just that and also Nick S a little earlier.

enjoy the forum.

[Optimus Prime]

The high pressure perhaps showing signs of sinking more south on this run and perhaps reinvigorating the cold east flow?

Edited February 5, 2010 by Optimus Prime

[Freezing-Point]

Tonights GFS...

Its intersting how the initial cold wave is being progged earlier all the time. I may be waking up to fresh snow cover (for the 4th time in 10 days) on Monday if this verifys.....

Edited February 5, 2010 by Freezing-Point