Model Output Discussion:

[damianslaw]

Models very much showing synoptics in line with what the teleconnections are projecting for next week. I think UKMO and GFS are nearer the mark this evening than ECM which wants to ridge the developing heights to the north directly over us, however, the teleconnections do not support this, retrogression will be the order of the day with strong heights building over Greenland as we go through next week.

To sum up, light easterly flow slowly moving in over the weekend, a preety dull weekend in the main not much to talk about.

Early next week - sub 528 dam air will move through on Tuesday heradling the arrival of the colder continental air and chance of snow showers especially in the east, but I wouldn't be surprised if an organised band of snow at some stage moves through into central parts thanks to trough development - remember trough developments occur in the short-range timescale.

From Thursday onwards the scandi trough will come into play aiding retrogression, later next week a proper arctic continental feed and every chance the air will be very unstable with trough development and NW through to NE winds. I suspect we are about to see a spell of weather similiar only a little less ever than early Jan, perhaps more in line with the pre-christmas period.

[Optimus Prime]

Mondays maximum temperature;

[BarnetBlizzard]

The high quite a bit further south-east on this run, not so good for snowier weather next week. Only one run though and could reverse back tommorow and this would still provide lovely cold, slightly less snowy weather

[adamgooner]

Give it chance....

You need to let the models roll out before coming to any conclusion as drastic as yours.

looking drier still cold but not the convection coming off the north sea we need....still time

[Tim Bland]

Everything looks a bit further west so far. The deep cold pool is closer to Eastern areas on Tuesday http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn841.png Looks like an upgrade to me in the short term (from an IMBY point of view anyway)

*Edit* Scrap that its now moved south! A much drier run and it looks like the cold will subside allot quicker on this run.

Edited February 5, 2010 by Tim Bland

[Lewis]

looking drier still cold but not the convection coming off the north sea we need....still time

Just a reminder, when looking at the models, take a look at the timeframe, the models was not showing the East/NE'rly shunting westwards with the colder pool until Wednesday, it's only out too tuesday. Watch the HP

[Freezing-Point]

Notice how the atlantic system is getting pushed west and squeezed.... East is making steady progress...

Edited February 5, 2010 by Freezing-Point

[fine wine]

Give it chance....

You need to let the models roll out before coming to any conclusion as drastic as yours.

Hence the 'Only one run though and could reverse back tommorow' . ironically these charts would probably provide lower mins and maxes as the winds would be lighter.

[nick sussex]

Well it was the 18z that was a strong precursor to the 0z runs last night and now it is showing a very weak high to the North of the UK with the Atlantic firing up, this could collapse very quickly.

You have to ask yourself though where the GFS 18hrs gets that bloated shortwave to the north of Scandi from, also with the Med low how can the high sink?

Edited February 5, 2010 by nick sussex

[LomondSnowstorm]

This is the same output as yesterday - 00Z not too great, building up to very good 12Zs but with ECM showing a slacker flow for a time and the 18Z is anticyclonic with Ian still making the same comment about the Atlantic crashing back - is it still Groundhog Day?

[Kentish Kiwi]

Give it chance....

You need to let the models roll out before coming to any conclusion as drastic as yours.

I'm sorry, but I'm not sure how that comment by BB was in anyway 'drastic'. Seemed to be a fair and unbiased comment on what the charts on the 18z run are currently showing, with pressure higher you would expect the air to carry less precipitation, note he only said its likely to be 'slightly less' snowy (if the run was to verify perfectly). He also made an effort to show that he understands its only one run and that he understands many changes will take place before we reach the date referred to.

Cheers,

KK

Edited February 5, 2010 by Kentish Kiwi

[Tim Bland]

Everything looks a bit further west so far. The deep cold pool is closer to Eastern areas on Tuesday http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn841.png Looks like an upgrade to me in the short term (from an IMBY point of view anyway)

*Edit* Scrap that its now moved south! A much drier run and it looks like the cold will subside allot quicker on this run.

Looks like we are going to end up with the High centred over us with NW areas under Maritime air.

Edited February 5, 2010 by Tim Bland

[LomondSnowstorm]

You have to ask yourself though where the GFS 18hrs gets that bloated shortwave to the north of Scandi from, also with the Med low how can the high sink?

Perhaps my post illustrates that JH is perhaps right when he talks about comparing the 00Zs/12Zs from the previous day as opposed to the 6 hour ago output? Not sure about this either really but if it works it works! Perhaps would stop the constant upgrade/downgrade talk.LS

[Buxton Codge]

Well it was the 18z that was a strong precursor to the 0z runs last night and now it is showing a very weak high to the North of the UK with the Atlantic firing up, this could collapse very quickly.

I agree Ian. 18z looks a poor run again. At least it will be dry and fairly cold

[Bristawl Si]

Well it was the 18z that was a strong precursor to the 0z runs last night and now it is showing a very weak high to the North of the UK with the Atlantic firing up, this could collapse very quickly.

Isn't the 18z always referred to as the 'pub run' and one to ignore?

[Optimus Prime]

Isn't the 18z always referred to as the 'pub run' and one to ignore?

That's what I was thinking. It's always has problems withb these situations.

It's still a very cold run and potentially things look like getting better from 156 hours.

[Lewis]

Isn't the 18z always referred to as the 'pub run' and one to ignore?

Hey Bristol boy

There is not true evidence showing that the pub run should be ignored. A lot of people have their special "favoured" charts, mine for example is the 06z. All models from the GFS whether it be 00z or 06z, 12z, or 18z should all be treated equally, you never know which one is right. Sometimes you get a lot of agreement with the 00z 06z and 12z models, but then you get a downgrade on the 18z, so people automatically bin it.

hope this helps

[Paul]

Those bickering and getting wound up just because someone has a different view to you (for whatever reasons), please stop while you still have the option to post or not..

The behaviour of some in this thread is ludicrious - this is a final opportunity for those causing issues to sort themselves out before we just stop all offenders from posting for the foreseeable future - why should the other members and the team have to put up with and deal with some of the childishness that's been happening on this thread lately??

(please don't reply directly to this post - pm me if you wish to respond)

[johnholmes]

If you go to the NOAA site not only do they compare the different models on days 5 and 6 but they also run comparisons of the runs each day, so you can see which of the 00, 06, 12, 18 are performing best at the moment.

takes the hear say out of which one is actually showing the better results.

[Andy_Calafell_Sheffield]

I've heard many times people say compare like for like runs ... ie. 12z with 12z and 18z with 18z. If we remember back to yesterday the 18z also did a similar thing, and tonight's 18z is an improvement over last nights 18z during the all important timeframe.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hey Bristol boy

There is not true evidence showing that the pub run should be ignored. A lot of people have their special "favoured" charts, mine for example is the 06z. All models from the GFS whether it be 00z or 06z, 12z, or 18z should all be treated equally, you never know which one is right. Sometimes you get a lot of agreement with the 00z 06z and 12z models, but then you get a downgrade on the 18z, so people automatically bin it.

hope this helps

I'm sure I read somewhere that the 18Z has the lowest verification rates of the 4 daily runs. Sometimes it picks things up, sometimes it doesn't, but it is more likely to be wrong than most other runs. Not to be discounted on that basis though.

[BarnetBlizzard]

Pretty bad gs 18z compared to the 12z, lets just hope its an outlier. There would unlikely to be snow anywhere in the UK from those charts. Would be very cold though.

[nick sussex]

It is quite progressive but we saw last night how the 18z led the way and I think this is what GP was taking about earlier today, the various teleconnections which he has a better handle on than anyone, don't support a retrogression of the High and this is what we are seeing here.

Yes I read his thoughts but I don't think he was talking about the chance of the high sinking till much later on. Of course we can't discount the GFS 18hrs because we don't like it but I think its overdone the shortwave to the north which then effects the ridge from the east. The latest UKMO fax charts look good however.

[Optimus Prime]

If you go to the NOAA site not only do they compare the different models on days 5 and 6 but they also run comparisons of the runs each day, so you can see which of the 00, 06, 12, 18 are performing best at the moment.

takes the hear say out of which one is actually showing the better results.

The NOAA's a big site John - Any chance of a link please?

[Tim Bland]

Excelent fax charts tonight http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=96&carte=2000 Troughs the length of the UK for the east!