Model Output Discussion:

[Frosty.]

I am honestly sorry moderators

but his posts,all of them continue to be wrong,misleading,or antagonistic

but they remain...

Ian is spot on, the ecm shows most northern and western areas of the uk, around 60% of the BI to be dominated by high pressure according to the ECM 12z and to be honest, the ecm run will probably turn out most accurate but longer term it might improve up north if the hp retrogresses but that is far from certain, it might just sit across the north for 2 weeks. Excellent snow potential for the south and especially the southeast.

Edited February 5, 2010 by Frosty039

[nick sussex]

Thanks for the diplomatic reply Nick. Having looked more closely you are correct, I think the model wobbles of earlier in the week have got to me!

Well thats not a surprise I think many of us are suffering from nervous exhaustion!

I was obsessed over two shortwaves the trigger one that is currently in the process of undercutting the ridge and the Scandi one, as everyone knows these have caused all manner of problems in the past.

Up until last night I still wasn't sure of the cold spell until the second shortwave came within the T-96hrs timeframe.Overall the model output this evening IMO has been the best we could have expected after this mornings runs.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I think you're worrying a bit too much here, as long as you have that low pressure in the northern Med that high cannot sink. Regardless of those small differences on a global scale the models all agree on the same pattern, thats the most important thing.

Thanks. Perhaps I was harsh on the ECM solution - that setup shown by Nick F gave 2 inches in only 6 hours of showers! I still see the UKMO and GFS and better but I realise now that I was too quick to rule out snow with that kind of pressure and uppers around -10.

[Solar Cycles]

Ian is spot on, the ecm shows most northern and western areas of the uk, around 60% of the BI to be dominated by high pressure according to the ECM 12z and to be honest, the ecm run will probably turn out most accurate but longer term it migh improve up north if the hp retrogresses but that is far from certain, it might just sit across the north for 2 weeks.

I agree, if the ECM was to verify, then Ian's assessment is spot on!

Edited February 5, 2010 by Solar Cycles

[MR EXTREMES]

Evening All-

Looks like im going to have to refrain from some comments towards certain posters this eve & hit the IGNORE button-

The Cold looks like arriving in 2 waves now, initial blast from the East at the back end of the weekend, with the chance of some snowfall- although not that widepread, then perhaps a calm period at the start of next week as things hold station for 48 hours- still the threat of snow in the SE corner, before the high pressure begins to retrograde & elongate along all points west & a little east of Iceland-

this then presents itself with the biggest opportunity of the cold spell in terms of widespread snow-

I guess without looking the ECM has around -9c uppers between 144 & 216 across the South, with thicknesses around low 520's- which is plenty good enough-

so it is time to get that bit excited...

With this being the chart of the day for widespread snow- although there are some that run it close-

the sausage special-

http://www.meteociel...H1-240.GIF?05-0

S

yep the most classic winters are the susage special and if this happens then we will be the very exciting zone.

ukmo gfs brillant ecm not the worse and ian b how you can rule out snowfall so early in the evolution beats me.

its not started yet so give it a chance peeps im well excited very happy

[FENDER.]

I am honestly sorry moderators

but his posts,all of them continue to be wrong,misleading,or antagonistic

but they remain...

I dont agree, given the charts that we have, I would say its an accurate summary by Ian

Edited February 5, 2010 by At least it will be mild

[nick sussex]

yep the most classic winters are the susage special and if this happens then we will be the very exciting zone.

ukmo gfs brillant ecm not the worse and ian b how you can rule out snowfall so early in the evolution beats me.

its not started yet so give it a chance peeps im well excited very happy

Good post and your last sentence should sum things up for most people,as Nick F just showed on that fax chart snow can appear even with high pressure that close. It always makes me laugh when people call no snow and dry before the charts have even verified.

[Nick L]

People should write snow off at this range at their peril. I learnt that lesson in January - get the cold and the snow WILL come.

Anyway, even on the current runs virtually everywhere should see something, and the precipitation forecasts will more than likely upgrade as we get to a more reliable timeframe.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I dont agree, given the charts that we have, I would say its an accurate summary by Ian

You mean given the ECM. The UKMO and GFS have more potential for snow anywhere, and given the tendency for snow events to crop up even the ECM won't necessarily pan out as such, but it is a reasonable summary in terms of the ECM. Nonetheless, where is that sinking high? As I said earlier, I see no reason to believe it will sink and the models are beginning to show the retrogression to Greenland, as occured in mid-late December.LS

[nick sussex]

In terms of the upstream pattern over in the USA and Canada NOAA this evening go for a blended solution which incorporates the GFS/ECM 00hrs operational runs together with their ensemble means.

Full discussions are available here:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

Edited February 5, 2010 by nick sussex

[Bobby]

People should write snow off at this range at their peril. I learnt that lesson in January - get the cold and the snow WILL come.

The January surprise snow came from an unstable airflow, you can get features popping up at little notice in these unstable flows. What the ECM is showing though is very different - a much more stable flow and so less chance of surprise significant snow. I think the GFS/UKMO solution is more likely anyway as the ECM is rather on its own and there is strong agreement between the UKMO/GFS.

Edited February 5, 2010 by Barb-

[MR EXTREMES]

Good post and your last sentence should sum things up for most people,as Nick F just showed on that fax chart snow can appear even with high pressure that close. It always makes me laugh when people call no snow and dry before the charts have even verified.

its also got to be said the ecm might not be the model to follow.

its getting rather silly now in here because it seems like cold is nailed yet some persist to follow one model,

thats not saying it wont be right regardless whether or not it is correct we have some exciting cold weather once again with full model agreement.

how long will it last i dont know.

how much snow will fall well somewhere will get some absolutely 100% certain of that.

where will it fall i dont know.

will the models change tomorrow 100% certain they will but they wont show mild in the best time frame.

what a fantastic winter.

coldest in 100years scotland.

coldest in 50 years irland.

coldest in 25 years england.

and yet some still moan.

and one for (At least it will be mild) I dont agree, given the charts that we have, I would say its an accurate summary by Ian.

would you like to detail why or are you just looking to whined the thread up?.

Edited February 5, 2010 by badboy657

[snowking]

People should write snow off at this range at their peril. I learnt that lesson in January - get the cold and the snow WILL come.

Anyway, even on the current runs virtually everywhere should see something, and the precipitation forecasts will more than likely upgrade as we get to a more reliable timeframe.

a VERY key point that - i've lost track of the number of times people shout dry and cold from a ridiculous range. Lets bear in mind I woke up to a covering of snow on monday morning here in the SW, that was totally unforecast even 6 hours away by any of the models, including the NAE. Anyone judging PPN potential from charts with the sort of resolution that even the GFS has is a fool!

This is slightly off topic but model related question - have I just been blind for months or have the Dew Points just been added to the NAE output on WO

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=taup&HH=0&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

Either way that will be VERY useful from now on, it was about the only one of the major precip-type indicators that wasnt raw-ly available on the NAE

SK

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Evening All-

Looks like im going to have to refrain from some comments towards certain posters this eve & hit the IGNORE button-

The Cold looks like arriving in 2 waves now, initial blast from the East at the back end of the weekend, with the chance of some snowfall- although not that widepread, then perhaps a calm period at the start of next week as things hold station for 48 hours- still the threat of snow in the SE corner, before the high pressure begins to retrograde & elongate along all points west & a little east of Iceland-

this then presents itself with the biggest opportunity of the cold spell in terms of widespread snow-

I guess without looking the ECM has around -9c uppers between 144 & 216 across the South, with thicknesses around low 520's- which is plenty good enough-

so it is time to get that bit excited...

With this being the chart of the day for widespread snow- although there are some that run it close-

the sausage special-

S

Good idea Big Steve i had noticed the baiting post towards you.

Simply terrific output this evening one has to say this.Already two below average months and the distinct posibilty of another in Feb.The 850's arent the be all and end all with a flow from the East,i hope to see some great snow pics from you guys in the SE,(and Tamara). :lol:

Keep up the good work and the enthusiasm mate i for one love it.

[guitarnutter]

This page shows nicely the progression from a few days ago whern we we looking and south westerlys next week, to now.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=ecmwf&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=all&VAR=pslv&HH=72&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Upper temps currently suggested are around -8/9C for Mon/Tues dropping to around -11C for Thurs. Now upper temps during our previous cold spells in Dec/Jan were similiar around -11/-12C although these values were shortlived.

The N Sea certainly isn't as warm as it was in Dec. I wouldn't fancy dipping my toes in Hunstanton.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reursst.gif

So the combination of both means I strongly disagree.

Hi Teits,

It's warmer

In Cromer

(But not by much)

North Sea temps are nicely down and even getting cooler further North where it's deeper

But the temperature differential should mean we snow even close to the coast.

The models are varying this Easterly, run by run, so most of us will end up nowcasting the snow.

As far as the cold is concerned, I don't care if we don't get much snow, cold and bright will do me. And whatever happens it looks as though it will be cold. The strangest thing is that this winter, the charts have consistently been the reverse of what was happening in previous years. In the 'Old Days' the cols was in FI, now the mild weather is, and as we get closer it stays in FI

[FENDER.]

its also got to be said the ecm might not be the model to follow.

its getting rather silly now in here because it seems like cold is nailed yet some persist to follow one model,

thats not saying it wont be right regardless whether or not it is correct we have some exciting cold weather once again with full model agreement.

how long will it last i dont know.

how much snow will fall well somewhere will get some absolutely 100% certain of that.

where will it fall i dont know.

will the models change tomorrow 100% certain they will but they wont show mild in the best time frame.

what a fantastic winter.

coldest in 100years scotland.

coldest in 50 years irland.

coldest in 25 years england.

and yet some still moan.:lol:

and one for (At least it will be mild) I dont agree, given the charts that we have, I would say its an accurate summary by Ian.

would you like to detail why or are you just looking to whined the thread up?.

You see this is the trouble with a forum that is dominated by snow fanatics, If anyone dares to suggest that perhaps there wont be much they are accused of winding people up.

forget my rather misleading user name, no-one like snow more than me. as people from the regional thread will confirm. However with a slack flow and High pressure to the north, it does suggest dry for many central and western parts. Also my experience with easterlies over the last 40 odd years tells me that they very often dont deliver that far inland.

[Freezing-Point]

People should write snow off at this range at their peril. I learnt that lesson in January - get the cold and the snow WILL come.

Anyway, even on the current runs virtually everywhere should see something, and the precipitation forecasts will more than likely upgrade as we get to a more reliable timeframe.

I would agree with that.

The snow potential for the entire UK is HUGE with the current pattern which is about to develop. If this run was to verify then yes SE may favour, but it won't verify. There will be many changes along the way right down to the final 8 hours.

The important thing is the PATTERN is setting in and anywhere can expect snow at this point. Luck of the draw from here.....

By the way TEITS, thanks for echoing my comments regarding the METO. WELL DONE.

[The Weather Dragon]

The huge low pressure system in the Eastern Atlantic has a progged central pressure of 939mb on current 18z fax chart - I haven't seen a central pressure so low for some time.

Snow is often a nowcasting event - lets get the cold first & establish a cold pattern - Snow will follow

Edited February 5, 2010 by Jonathan Evans

[TEITS]

Well overall some fantastic output and considering last nights 18Z and this mornings 0Zs im very pleased how the 12Zs are looking.

For me im just happy with the +72 fax chart.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

A couple of points I wish to raise.

Firatly I see some are already concerned about snowfall. Well remember prior to our last cold spell my region was likely to see the heaviest snow and yet parts of NW/SW England witnessed far more snow than I did!

Secondly I see a sinking HP keeps being mentioned. Well at the moment none of the models suggest this with the ECM/GFS/GEFS mean very keen on the HP retrogressing to Greenland.

I tell you what the +72/+96 charts are far better than the mild SW,lys that were shown. This week has really been a learning experience for all of us.

[MR EXTREMES]

You see this is the trouble with a forum that is dominated by snow fanatics, If anyone dares to suggest that perhaps there wont be much they are accused of winding people up.

forget my rather misleading user name, no-one like snow more than me. as people from the regional thread will confirm. However with a slack flow and High pressure to the north, it does suggest dry for many central and western parts. Also my experience with easterlies over the last 40 odd years tells me that they very often dont deliver that far inland.

well they did in 2008 feb snow even infact they went across the southern half of the uk.

and like i said id suggest holding fire in think the ecm is nailed evolution because its not thers going to be changes over the next couple of days.

snowfall from a frontal system could be forecasted futher out snowfall from convection anything from 12 to 24 hours.

but even so the charts are great for cold if we have snowfall which i think we will then bonus,

if not then its fine another below cet month:drinks:

[MR EXTREMES]

Well overall some fantastic output and considering last nights 18Z and this mornings 0Zs im very pleased how the 12Zs are looking.

For me im just happy with the +72 fax chart.

http://www.wetterzen...pics/brack2.gif

A couple of points I wish to raise.

Firatly I see some are already concerned about snowfall. Well remember prior to our last cold spell my region was likely to see the heaviest snow and yet parts of NW/SW England witnessed far more snow than I did!

Secondly I see a sinking HP keeps being mentioned. Well at the moment none of the models suggest this with the ECM/GFS/GEFS mean very keen on the HP retrogressing to Greenland.

I tell you what the +72/+96 charts are far better than the mild SW,lys that were shown. This week has really been a learning experience for all of us.

even the fax in 72 hours does not suggest a sinking high thats another plus omg im excited luv it.

its not a sinker woop woop.

[nick sussex]

You see this is the trouble with a forum that is dominated by snow fanatics, If anyone dares to suggest that perhaps there wont be much they are accused of winding people up.

forget my rather misleading user name, no-one like snow more than me. as people from the regional thread will confirm. However with a slack flow and High pressure to the north, it does suggest dry for many central and western parts. Also my experience with easterlies over the last 40 odd years tells me that they very often dont deliver that far inland.

I agree with your point we are generally all snow fanatics! However the problem people have is with sweeping statements that are made that categorically state cold and dry, when the models haven't even verified yet and we heard the same story before the last cold spell. With easterlies they can often surprise but equally disappoint. It might be the former or latter but why kill off peoples hopes who may just be dipping into the thread when theres still uncertainty as to where the high will set up!

[LomondSnowstorm]

The huge low pressure system in the Eastern Atlantic has a progged central pressure of 939mb on current 18z fax chart - I haven't seen a central pressure so low for some time.

Smow is often a nowcasting event - lets get the cold first & establish a cold pattern - Snow will follow

In relation to your first statement, this makes it all the more impressive that just 72 hours later this chart is looking likely to verify http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm721.gifIn terms of your second point, I basically agree with you, but with high pressure directly over the UK this does not apply. Luckily no model is going for that - this chart brought me two inches of snow, completely unforecast http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090105.gif And yet the flow is not great, fairly slack, with uppers only around -7, which usually means marginal in these parts from an easterly http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00220090105.gif. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif This chart has similar potential I reckon, perhaps moreso with slightly colder uppers.LS

[Snowyowl9]

Anyway who thinks this is a dry run have lots of surprises in store.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

Last run I`m looking at today it doesn`t get much better than this,east/NE wind all the way through perfect.

It has a look of feb 1986 about it.

Edited February 5, 2010 by Snowyowl9