Model Output Discussion

[Neilsouth]

For those down south you can get it on meteociel for free, but they've blurred the the UK so you can't see where your location is (bloody french!) http://www.meteociel...&map=0Otherwise, get Netweather extra - the best radar for the UK, it updates every 5 minutes and you can now zoom into your house!The NAE use (Scottish only joke there) is on weatheronline http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=

Enjoy!LS

USE TINYURL ! when doing large links

http://tinyurl.com/ya2gnyk , First signs of snow start on monday !

[snohobo]

USE TINYURL ! when doing large links

http://tinyurl.com/ya2gnyk , First signs of snow start on monday !

Can't get these links to work. Any Clues??

[johnholmes]

Ref the comments/excitement about the Met O charts on Meteociel from T+96 out to T+144.

I think you will find that the senior man will assess this as a spurious development ahead of what its trying to show. That is the cold pool and its associated surface low swinging in from the east nearer the T+144 time frame?

Something which GFS also shows, but less markedly. In its case it’s the -10 and below 850mb temperature area swinging west then south indicating a similar idea.

[Geordiesnow]

Decent output but i would not say spectacular output but there should be some snowfall for some even if something like the UKMO comes off.

How much snowfall though is uncertain but i don't think we will see widespread amounts. I think the cold frosty nights will be the main feature although if you are going to watch the news next week, i'm sure you will be mislead when you hear alot of snow headlines.

Its interesting too see the models are toying with the idea of retrogression to Greenland which could prolong any cold spell but this is a bit too early to call at the moment.

[MR EXTREMES]

i think there excellent charts i did say earlier this afternoon that the models would give good outputs and im right.

over all whether snowfall is heavy light rain sleet does not matter cold first then the rest lovely jubbly.:D

[Eugene]

Stunning ensembles and believe it or not the OP one of the milder solutions around the 15th

Incredible turnaround since last sunday.

http://www.wzkarten3..._London_ens.png

Edited February 6, 2010 by Eugene

[shuggee]

Stunning ensembles and believe it or not the OP one of the milder solutions around the 14th

Incredible turnaround since last sunday.

http://www.wzkarten3..._London_ens.png

Today would have been T+144 since last Sunday Eugene. So what you on about?!

[TEITS]

Today would have been T+144 since last Sunday Eugene. So what you on about?!

Yes and according to the models last Sunday we should be experiencing very mild SW,lys over the next few days. This is what Eugene is referring to.

Excellent GFS, not sure what to make of the UKMO. The period between +96/+120 remains uncertain as we can see between the UKMO/GFS. Need to see what the ECM says about this timeframe before I make judgement of the UKMO.

First signs of snow appearing on the NAE for Monday.

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/06/basis12/ukuk/prty/10020812_0612.gif

[Ben_Cambs]

Lovely GEFS ensembles tonight. The Control run IMO is better than the OP run.

Mean at T+144

[shuggee]

Yes and according to the models last Sunday we should be experiencing very mild SW,lys over the next few days. This is what Eugene is referring to.

Excellent GFS, not sure what to make of the UKMO. The period between +96/+120 remains uncertain as we can see between the UKMO/GFS. Need to see what the ECM says about this timeframe before I make judgement of the UKMO.

First signs of snow appearing on the NAE for Monday.

http://expert.weathe...020812_0612.gif

Yes - and how many times do we have to keep bleeting on that T+144 is the limit of reliability? The next few days would take it to T+192/T+216 - anybody who takes that as true is likely to get as upset as someone relentlessly predicting easterlies every week all winter long. That was why I made the comment TEITS.

[MR EXTREMES]

intresting looking at the fax trough or is that a shortwave? heading from ne to sw.

the high seems to sink but then sit to the north of the uk around scotland is this retrogresstion?

http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/,.gif,bracka,brack0,brack0a,brack1,brack1a,brack2,brack2a,brack3,brack4

you can see it on here aswell.

http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/,.gif,bracka,brack0,brack0a,brack1,brack1a,brack2,brack2a,brack3,brack4

gem model has something flyout of siberia right at us if this model was correct forget usa snowstorms it would be white hell and very cold,

but all looks a little ott to be honest lol.

[in the vale]

Yes and according to the models last Sunday we should be experiencing very mild SW,lys over the next few days. This is what Eugene is referring to.

Excellent GFS, not sure what to make of the UKMO. The period between +96/+120 remains uncertain as we can see between the UKMO/GFS. Need to see what the ECM says about this timeframe before I make judgement of the UKMO.

First signs of snow appearing on the NAE for Monday.

http://expert.weathe...020812_0612.gif

The NAE +48 shows snow much further west (midlands almost) than other models have been suggesting. Any thoughts or have I misread GFS etc.?

[Lewis]

Hi guys, hows things looking? I seen the odd post about a shortwave on the UKMO, is it a spoiler? i hope not.

Btw, i'm toothless i fell over and cracked my front tooth on the table, snapped my tooth clean off, and now i have a permenant lisp So if we get this potent easterly, i'll have a permanent whistle lol.

Edited February 6, 2010 by Storm Force Lewis

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Mainly rain though

Yep im quite suprised by that easterly flow most of the country within 528 DAM,bit disappointed to see mainly blue(rain).

[in the vale]

Mainly rain though

-7 uppers, dewpoint around or below freezing, 528 DAM. Why would that be mainly rain?

[FENDER.]

-7 uppers, dewpoint around or below freezing, 528 DAM. Why would that be mainly rain?

Why indeed, but thats what the chart show

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/06/basis12/ukuk/prty/10020812_0612.gif

Edited February 6, 2010 by At least it will be mild

[Bobby]

Lovely GEFS ensembles tonight. The Control run IMO is better than the OP run.

Mean at T+144

That's the control, here's the mean at +144

[in the vale]

Why indeed, but thats what the chart shows

http://expert.weathe...020812_0612.gif

That's what I asked in the first place. The chart (NAE t48) shows snow from Derby eastwards, and rain further east and south.

edit - Thank you for answering the question Weather09 - that's all I was after.

Edited February 6, 2010 by in the vale

[LomondSnowstorm]

Is nick going to mass tomorrow??? http://www.meteociel...CM1-72.GIF?06-0

Maybe!

LS

edit: Apparently not, but not all that great a +96 chart either http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-96.GIF?06-0

Edited February 6, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[Frosty.]

This is very impressive, what a contrast to the sw'ly flow we would have been staring down the barrel at if the FI models had verified from those nightmare runs last sunday if anyone remembers that. A cold spell descending on the uk from monday but the snow showers not arriving until tuesday and mostly in the east and south, I would hazard a guess that the cold spell will last at least a week but due to the stronger sun and a few other factors, it won't have the severity of the dec/jan cold spells.

Edited February 6, 2010 by Frosty039

[MR EXTREMES]

Is nick going to mass tomorrow??? http://www.meteociel...CM1-72.GIF?06-0

Maybe!

LS

edit: Apparently not, but not all that great a +96 chart either http://www.meteociel...CM1-96.GIF?06-0

thats a nice ecm to start looks like a good start.

[Frosty.]

This is very impressive, what a contrast to the sw'ly flow we would have been staring down the barrel at if the FI models had verified from those nightmare runs last sunday if anyone remembers that. A cold spell descending on the uk from monday but the snow showers not arriving until tuesday and mostly in the east and south, I would hazard a guess that the cold spell will last at least a week but due to the stronger sun and a few other factors, it won't have the severity of the dec/jan cold spells.

Edited February 6, 2010 by Frosty039

[SMU]

ECM 120

Holding station at 120- widespread severe frosts,awaiting the retrograde on the 144 chart-

S

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://www.meteociel...M1-120.GIF?06-0

Another slightly disappointing ECM at +120

LS

edit: Yes Steve, frosty but perhaps not as good as the other models at this stage. Still, after +120 still looks like it could be a belter!

Edited February 6, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[TEITS]

Yes - and how many times do we have to keep bleeting on that T+144 is the limit of reliability? The next few days would take it to T+192/T+216 - anybody who takes that as true is likely to get as upset as someone relentlessly predicting easterlies every week all winter long. That was why I made the comment TEITS.

Yes +144 is the limit of reliablity but the sheer difference between what the models were showing to reality is quiet incredible. I have only seen the model output change this drastically on two occasions in 5yrs. So the comment Eugene made was quiet correct.