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shuggee

By shuggee
in Forecast Model Discussion

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

I assume no one can get on as I tried to get in and it didn't work. At least you're not missing much!smile.gif

Honorary membership of the Scottish one till the problem is fixed?laugh.gif

Anyway, to the models, and perhaps we are missing the easterly coming into NMM territory and with it snow potential for east and northern areas.post-9298-12654920008817_thumb.png post-9298-12654920840217_thumb.png post-9298-12654921263917_thumb.png

LS

LS,

I love those charts, are they free on Netweather or are they subscription only? They certainly show some detail on them. yahoo.gif

Back to the models, the forum overload is kicking in so I reckon the cold spell is getting into the system already. The GFS runs had potential yesterday evening all the way through into FI on the 21st, Jay Wynne hinted on the BBC that something snowy could be on the way for Wednesday, I wonder?

Now I better catch up on the latest.

STORMBOY

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

Firstly, the charts are only available on NW extra.

Secondly, the pub run looks fairly reasonable so far to me: http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100206/18/36/6hrprecip.png

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100206/18/78/6hrprecip.png

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100206/18/36/h500slp.png

Getting there at +96, though not quite as good as the 12Z, but the pub run has had a tendency to downgrade the pattern slightly anyway.

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100206/18/96/h500slp.png

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100206/18/96/ukprec.png

Still some snow likely for much of eastern England anyway.

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Bolton67 Enthusiast

Bolton67

Posted
  • Location: Bolton, Lancashire
  • Location: Bolton, Lancashire
Posted (edited)

http://cirrus.netwea...8/96/ukprec.png

Still some snow likely for much of eastern England anyway.

The East Midlands would do ok too!!

Precip ammounts are nothing to get over excited though!!

Edited by Lancs_Northants
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Cheese Rice Community Regular

Cheese Rice

Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
Posted (edited)

GFS looks like a downgrade to me, the flow on Thursday wouldn't provide snow showers, just cold and dry, a very slack flow. It's only one run so I can't say i mind if it shows a slack flow.

Edited by 10123
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FENDER. Contributor

FENDER.

Posted
  • Location: Stafford 320 FT ASL
  • Location: Stafford 320 FT ASL
Posted

Not sure, the high seems a tad further south, and flow is very slack. The potential for snow would be less than we would like.

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Freezing-Point Aficionado

Freezing-Point

Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Forest Hall)
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Forest Hall)
Posted

18Z keeps the high further S, prelonging the colder air moving in. But when it does the pool of air is greater and it would last longer.

But the High then sits further East compared to the 12Z, meaning we would soon be in milder air as the feed past Scandi is not that cold. We need the high to retrogress and bring in a Northerly folllowed by a NE to enable us to tap into more colder air from the Artic. If this does not happen then we will have to wait some time beofore colder air builds in the NE.

18Zvs12Z.jpg

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

Considering the recent 18Zs have been relatively poor im happy with this run so far.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.png

Certainly no downgrade IMO.

Yes Dave this is a very good run so far but we'll have to wait till tomorrow to see what the ECM and UKMO do. I see the GFS progs the mother of all winter storms for down here with that low pressure over northern Spain and me on the cold northern flank of the low! Oh well I give the GFS run top marks for artistic impression! :whistling:

Often these lows head further south giving Madrid lots of snow!People might be suprised in the fact that Madrid does often get snow in the winter, its actually the highest capital City in Europe.

Edited by nick sussex
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Freezing-Point Aficionado

Freezing-Point

Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Forest Hall)
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Forest Hall)
Posted

Tonights GFS is indicating a bitter cold February. If it verifies I see a few more records being broken.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

oh dear - i hope JH isnt around ..............

meanwhile, the 18z is typical pub run stuff in fi (strangely similar evolution to december though if it does close to verification, everything will be toned down somewhat).

in the medium term, we remain close enough to the trough to see precip pepped up over many parts of the UK. i guess this is one end of the envelope.

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johnwirral Enthusiast

johnwirral

Posted
  • Location: West Kirby,Wirral 1m ASL
  • Location: West Kirby,Wirral 1m ASL
Posted (edited)

What's the big deal about easterlies?

The 18z GFS shows a fantasy island snowfest, for the whole country, dropping down from the North.

From past memory big Siberian easterlies bring cold sunny weather to most areas and a few snow showers to the East.

A northerly, like the one that brought the last lot of snow will do fine for me and most of the country not just a few favoured areas.

Edited by johnwirral
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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted

We could do with a top up of colder temps and that looks like arriving!

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2281.png

Starting to remind me of Feb 05 some of these charts. :whistling:

Indeed,quite a classic run from the 18z with its easterly to northerly combo which is a long way out but very plausible given the southerly tracking jet and background signals,plus it has already happened this winter.

Very enjoyable viewing.:yahoo:

Getting back to the here and now,some showers are already brewing up in the north sea tonight.

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Lewis Newbie

Lewis

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull
Posted

Anyhow the 18z looks good for many areas including the SE and EA. A little drier to begin, but cold with still the chance of some features in the reliable frame. Later this week the easterly starts to push in, a little further South on this run, but still very good, blocking lovely.

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sandstorm2 Newbie

sandstorm2

Posted
  • Location: Bishopbriggs, near Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm dry summers
  • Location: Bishopbriggs, near Glasgow
Posted

GFS looks very similar to the ECMWF 1200 at the +216/240 range with the high retrogressing and a depression coming out of the arctic down the eastern side of the high to give us probably the coldest weather of the winter.

Pity it won't happen like that though, if it was +72 I would be getting excited.

SS2

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Freezing-Point Aficionado

Freezing-Point

Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Forest Hall)
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Forest Hall)
Posted

What's the big deal about easterlies?

The 18z GFS show a fantasy island snowfest, for the whole country, dropping down from the North.

From past memory big Siberian easterlies bring cold sunny weather to most areas and a few snow showers to the East.

A northerly, like the one that brought the last lot of snow will do fine for me and most of the country not just a few favoured areas.

Totally agree. The big deal about Easterlies is the the highest concentration of posters are in the area most favored by one. For the UK to see most snowfall then a proper northerly with SUB 528dam and unstable flow will always deliver. My area does well from both so I don't mind, but I am talking for everyone.

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Cheese Rice Community Regular

Cheese Rice

Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
Posted

Guys i have been following your posts for weeks, i am new to this how do thinks look for the South West dry and cold or do you think things will develop.cc_confused.gif

Looks predominately dry and cold for the south west, but if we have any troughs this could easily provide snow as long as the trough can move far enough inland.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

The UKMO go with their own model in the 96 and 120hrs fax charts, an interesting feature sliding south at 120hrs but at this timeframe too early to say whether it will verify.

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

oh dear - i hope JH isnt around ..............

meanwhile, the 18z is typical pub run stuff in fi (strangely similar evolution to december though if it does close to verification, everything will be toned down somewhat).

in the medium term, we remain close enough to the trough to see precip pepped up over many parts of the UK. i guess this is one end of the envelope.

The 18Z is hardly implausible compared to other models in FI, in fact it is perhaps a more toned down version of the ECM's 240 chart!

It's a nice run, a very nice run in fact, and not all that different from the 12Z really.

As for the off-topic posting, I would refer each and every one of you to my signature because this echoes my sentiments on the matter as well as John's.

Now for the important run of the evening - the NMM. Pub run or not, it's reliable as always!

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snowdrifter Explorer

snowdrifter

Posted
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snowy. Summer: Warm/gentle breeze. Anytime: thunderstorms/gales.
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
Posted

Indeed,quite a classic run from the 18z with its easterly to northerly combo which is a long way out but very plausible given the southerly tracking jet and background signals,plus it has already happened this winter.

Very enjoyable viewing.:whistling:

Just 1 post from me tonight - I agree with your post cloud - I hope that the east get the snow that it looks they will, but also that there is a northerly development at some point as shown on the 18z for others, though I'm well happy with this winter's snow as per my sig.

Also - some crazy point-scoring on the forum tonight. Just wonder what anyone seeing this thread for the first time might think.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

The only two global models that run 18hrs runs, the GFS and NOGAPS both bring the easterly in much earlier and disagree with the ECM and UKMO so it will be interesting to see which one has called it correct tomorrow morning. Normally for European blocking patterns I tend to follow the ECM and UKMO, perhaps we might see a middle ground solution.I'd be very surprised if the ECM and UKMO have called this totally wrong, I'd like them to be wrong as the GFS and NOGAPS are better for the UK and for me down here! :whistling:

Edited by nick sussex
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Jamie. Newbie

Jamie.

Posted
  • Location: Chepstow, South Wales - 275ft ASL
  • Location: Chepstow, South Wales - 275ft ASL
Posted

good the models are now all indicating a cold week to come.

The main thing is to get the cold air and then the snow will follow (even if it's a breakdown event).

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