Model Output Discussion

[pyrotech]

Any other year we would be happy with the cold shown by the models, it seems we are being spoilt and looking to quickly for snow.

The Trend has been picked up 15 days ago by GFS for a cold spell, it dropped it medium term for it to be pulled back in the near reliable timeframe. All the models show cold and run after run shows it. How many times this year has a shortwave appeared to give the percipitation, we have got the most important ingredient which is the cold.

The trend in the models is for heights to increase over the polar region and a greenie high. The potential is there for a two week plus cold spell and the models will play around with a breakdown deep in fi. For the models in fi i think ECM is showing better potential for disruptive weather than GFS and i can see something interesting brewing. Not like what East Coast USA but it safe to say that a cold northern hemisphere has been the order of this winter and remains so on all the models.

Another storm is possible in the Usa later in the week for the same areas and then we look for a possible omega block over the USA. This would then allow a cold plunge down through Europe. There is a lot of ifs and buts but something potential to look out for in the models. I am not forecasting Snowarmegeddon as they call it over the pond but just saying that maybe some on here are looking in the wrong direction in regards to the current - ongoing cold spell. Its westwards we need to model watch.

[Bobby]

Its a classic slow evolution to deep cold uppers as we head through this week. Initially we will have a light easterly flow favouring some snow showers in eastern parts, as we head through the week a stronger NE/E flow will develop pulling in colder uppers and increasing chances of more widespread snow in the east perhaps filtering into central parts and maybe western areas by the weekend. During the weekend retrogression of heights to Greenland and then bingo we are in firm upper cold territory with chance of significant widespread snowfalls anywhere courtesy of troughs from the north thanks to the scandi trough and lowering heights over Scandi, later on chance of southerly tracking lows/undercutting etc...

The period 13th-20th Feb looks to be when we see the significant cold weather and opportunities for widespread significant snowfall, the coming week whilst cold with some sharp frosts in the west and some snow showers in the east is going to look tame compared to the following week. I sound like a broken record inr ecent days but all signs have been for strong heights to ridge down from Greenland as we head towards middle of Feb - watch the models ontinue to show this synpotical evolution in the coming days. Wouldn't it be great to see a polar low before the winter is out.. mmm maybe we will see such a one..

I agree with all of that. It's looking strikingly similar to the build up to the first cold spell in December with high pressure near us initially keeping things chilly and quiet.

13th December 2009: http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2009121306-0-6.png?6

17th December 2009: http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2009121706-0-6.png?6

So it looks like a quiet first week or so, not that cold or snowy. Then the real fun and game start as the high migrates to Greenland, opening the flood gates to the N-E. Could also open us up to attacks from the Atlantic and so potential battleground snow events, maybe even some channel lows if we're lucky.

I am thinking this could be a quite prolonged and severe spell.

[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

Any other year we would be happy with the cold shown by the models, it seems we are being spoilt and looking to quickly for snow.

The Trend has been picked up 15 days ago by GFS for a cold spell, it dropped it medium term for it to be pulled back in the near reliable timeframe. All the models show cold and run after run shows it. How many times this year has a shortwave appeared to give the percipitation, we have got the most important ingredient which is the cold.

The trend in the models is for heights to increase over the polar region and a greenie high. The potential is there for a two week plus cold spell and the models will play around with a breakdown deep in fi. For the models in fi i think ECM is showing better potential for disruptive weather than GFS and i can see something interesting brewing. Not like what East Coast USA but it safe to say that a cold northern hemisphere has been the order of this winter and remains so on all the models.

Another storm is possible in the Usa later in the week for the same areas and then we look for a possible omega block over the USA. This would then allow a cold plunge down through Europe. There is a lot of ifs and buts but something potential to look out for in the models. I am not forecasting Snowarmegeddon as they call it over the pond but just saying that maybe some on here are looking in the wrong direction in regards to the current - ongoing cold spell. Its westwards we need to model watch.

Apart from the consistency of the jet and gulf stream what possible correlation is there between North American weather systems and Europe? None as far as my understanding.

[pyrotech]

Apart from the consistency of the jet and gulf stream what possible correlation is there between North American weather systems and Europe? None as far as my understanding.

A block over the USA ( Especially omega block ) slows everything down. Its like a rock placed in a fast moving river. It was an OMEGA BLOCK over the USA that was main cause of our first cold spell this winter ( December)

[cooling climate]

Apart from the consistency of the jet and gulf stream what possible correlation is there between North American weather systems and Europe? None as far as my understanding.

A +PNA,-EPO,-AO,and -NAO all add together make for a very stable hemispheric pattern, plus

there is a strong STJ (sub tropical jet ) which helps to support the pattern.

Much of the northern hemisphere is moving into a very cold and blocked pattern such as we

saw in December and January.

[aspire27]

I agree with all of that. It's looking strikingly similar to the build up to the first cold spell in December with high pressure near us initially keeping things chilly and quiet.

13th December 2009: http://91.121.94.83/...21306-0-6.png?6

17th December 2009: http://91.121.94.83/...21706-0-6.png?6

So it looks like a quiet first week or so, not that cold or snowy. Then the real fun and game start as the high migrates to Greenland, opening the flood gates to the N-E. Could also open us up to attacks from the Atlantic and so potential battleground snow events, maybe even some channel lows if we're lucky.

I am thinking this could be a quite prolonged and severe spell.

Not sure why people are banking on events so far out? Maybe its because this week the cold that was showing is now been pushed back. I think last thursday the models were showing much colder temps for today but things have turned out different (7.5 degrees here). I hope the models stay consistant with regards to cold but looking so far ahead is a little silly if you ask me, but it is ok for looknig for trends. This time next sunday you never know, we may be in a really potent cold spell, or we could be once again looking into FI for our cold snowy weather.

Edited February 7, 2010 by aspire27

[Deep Snow please]

The chart below i the T+138 UK snow risk chart, I'm new to this so may have read it wrong but to me it looks great for snow lovers across most of the country.

[staplehurst]

The GFS has been persistent for at least 3 days now (that's as long as I have been looking at next Saturday's potential) for a pulse of mostly light-moderate snow to spread into eastern England and last for much of the day. Some runs take it further north into eastern Scotland, others take it further south. Whatever the case, this cold spell looks particularly good for Kent. Shame I'm in Norfolk until late March. Nevertheless, I look forward to the snow showers here late Tuesday onwards.

Edited February 7, 2010 by staplehurst

[NorthantsSnow]

The easterly has downgraded a lot as it has come into the reliable timeframe. Notice how the -10 air doesn't quite make it now until Friday, before fizzling out completely by Saturday.

Overall the outlook is cold with the threat of snow flurries in the east, but I wouldn't put much faith in a widespread heavy snow event occurring in the next 5 days. The easterly doesn't look anywhere near potent enough for that. The weekend onwards could be more interesting but that's way out in FI land and it could all change.

Edited February 7, 2010 by NorthantsSnow

[pyrotech]

Not sure why people are banking on events so far out? Maybe its because this week the cold that was showing is now been pushed back. I think last thursday the models were showing much colder temps for today but things have turned out different (7.5 degrees here). I hope the models stay consistant with regards to cold but looking so far ahead is a little silly if you ask me, but it is ok for looknig for trends. This time next sunday you never know, we may be in a really potent cold spell, or we could be once again looking into FI for our cold snowy weather.

In my opinion the cold is upon us , below average in my book is cold. Looking at trends as that is what this forum is about, reading the models, comparing and analising the outputs. Trying to read intensity and length of any potent cold spell and any possible breakdown. I think first few days have been agreed with most of the country cold and mainly dry with the only real snow interest towards the east coast, so members are looking for possibility of something a little more interesting and as such fi is showing some potential

[Eugene]

Not sure why people are banking on events so far out? Maybe its because this week the cold that was showing is now been pushed back. I think last thursday the models were showing much colder temps for today but things have turned out different (7.5 degrees here). I hope the models stay consistant with regards to cold but looking so far ahead is a little silly if you ask me, but it is ok for looknig for trends. This time next sunday you never know, we may be in a really potent cold spell, or we could be once again looking into FI for our cold snowy weather.

LOL, nice misrepresentation of the facts aspire, let me correct you, the temps are 4C widespread today as shown here exactly what was being shown since thursday, last sunday the models were going for temperatures of around 11C and one poster was predicting a possible 16C/17C

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/cgiaktgraph?ART=karte&LANG=en&JJ=2010&MM=02&TT=07&TIME=1400&TYP=temperatursyn&KEY=MID&TIME=1265553786

[keithlucky]

The easterly has downgraded a lot as it has come into the reliable timeframe. Notice how the -10 air doesn't quite make it now until Friday, before fizzling out completely by Saturday.

Overall the outlook is cold with the threat of snow flurries in the east, but I wouldn't put much faith in a widespread heavy snow event occurring in the next 5 days. The easterly doesn't look anywhere near potent enough for that. The weekend onwards could be more interesting but that's way out in FI land and it could all change.

Totally disagree upgrade for east uk .heavy showers wednesday possible as front drift across uk wednesday ,possible 6cm in places .

[aspire27]

LOL, nice misrepresentation of the facts aspire, let me correct you, the temps are 4C widespread today as shown here exactly what was being shown since thursday, last sunday the models were going for temperatures of around 11C and one poster was predicting a possible 16C/17C

http://www.weatheron...TIME=1265553786

Sorry but its not 4 degrees here. As i said 7.5 highest today. Been discussing temps on the SW regional thread and people have been recording the same. So as you said, and as i said the models last thursday were showing temps of 3-4 degrees for today....im just saying its not that cold thats all.

Edited February 7, 2010 by aspire27

[NorthantsSnow]

Totally disagree upgrade for east uk .heavy showers wednesday possible as front drift across uk wednesday ,possible 6cm in places .

That front looks really weak at the moment. Perhaps an inch or so max for parts of Norfolk and a little less elsewhere, so not really a heavy snow event and that's why no weather advisories have been issued by the UK Met Office.

[Steve Cooper]

That front looks really weak at the moment. Perhaps an inch or so max for parts of Norfolk and a little less elsewhere, so not really a heavy snow event and that's why no weather advisories have been issued by the UK Met Office.

WTF...Cant people just get some sort of grip on here ????? Its COLD......SNOW is a bonus. What more do people want ?????

Mild mush was shown recently, now we have ANOTHER cold spell on the way. NO Meto warnings because THEY cant predict how much/if any snow anyone will get until 24hrs before event.

For GOD SAKE..............LETS ENJOY !!!!!!!

Sorry Mods !!

[Eugene]

Sorry but its not 4 degrees here. As i said 7.5 highest today. Been discussing temps on the SW regional thread and people have been recording the same. So as you said, and as i said the models last thursday were showing temps of 3-4 degrees for today....im just saying its not that cold thats all.

Sorry but in the far SW temps were always going to be around 7C, for the bulk of the country temps are 4C/5C or below, i hardly would call where you live representative of the country as a whole and it wasn't supposed to be that cold today anyway as its a slow turnaround from milder to colder weather.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1217.png

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/cgiaktgraph?ART=kartealle&LANG=en&JJ=2010&MM=02&TT=07&TIME=1430&TYP=temperatur&KEY=UK&TIME=1265554916

Anyway not far from you is reporting 4C.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/detail?SID=u3010752a417615d540639f2e024fbbee98a7&PROVIDER=anwendung&ART=temperatur&CONT=ukuk&WMO=u3010&LANG=en

[aspire27]

Sorry but in the far SW temps were always going to be around 7C, for the bulk of the country temps are 4C/5C or below, i hardly would call where you live representative of the country as a whole and it wasn't supposed to be that cold today anyway as its a slow turnaround from milder to colder weather.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1217.png

http://www.weatheron...TIME=1265554916

Anyway not far from you is reporting 4C.

http://www.weatheron...O=u3010&LANG=en

Thank you for all your efforts to prove me wrong.

Maybe i should check my wireless thermometer, must be reading high..

Oh and that last link, is for bristol airport...quite high if you ask me at 180m ASL. lol

Edited February 7, 2010 by aspire27

[Nick L]

WTF...Cant people just get some sort of grip on here ????? Its COLD......SNOW is a bonus. What more do people want ?????

Mild mush was shown recently, now we have ANOTHER cold spell on the way. NO Meto warnings because THEY cant predict how much/if any snow anyone will get until 24hrs before event.

For GOD SAKE..............LETS ENJOY !!!!!!!

Sorry Mods !!

This is exactly why some people are scared to post on here - they comment on the most likely outcome, then get responses like this. Pathetic.

[FENDER.]

4-5c over most of the country, which is fine at this early stage of the cold spell. It certainly wont be getting any warmer as we go through the week.

Precipitation is my concern

[NorthantsSnow]

WTF...Cant people just get some sort of grip on here ????? Its COLD......SNOW is a bonus. What more do people want ?????

Mild mush was shown recently, now we have ANOTHER cold spell on the way. NO Meto warnings because THEY cant predict how much/if any snow anyone will get until 24hrs before event.

For GOD SAKE..............LETS ENJOY !!!!!!!

Sorry Mods !!

Bit uncalled for. I'm sorry my post didn't contain better news but I was just trying to be realistic about the snow potential for the next 5 days. And yes, whilst it is difficult to get a very clear idea of snow amounts greater than 24 hours in advance, if the Met Office believed potential existed then they would issue advisories for 3-5 days out. This has happened on many occasions. Of course, that's not to say they won't if the charts upgrade and we get a trough coming down or something. But at the moment the risk looks low until the weekend. If you can find something in the models which suggests otherwise, please share it.

In a more potent flow like February 2009, I would be more optimistic for snow potential. But we are nowhere near that level of cold yet. That was different in that the initial shot was very potent and snowy, but the bitter upper temps fizzled out quite quickly as lows pushed up from the south, meaning much of the snow that fell was quite marginal. This time we start off less cold and look to get progressively colder the longer the easterly/northeasterly winds persist, so it's interesting and could develop into something snowy further down the line, but some patience will be required. Still, I will enjoy the below average temperatures this week and keep an eye on the forecasts and models for the next snow event.

Edited February 7, 2010 by NorthantsSnow

[Bobby]

WTF...Cant people just get some sort of grip on here ????? Its COLD......SNOW is a bonus. What more do people want ?????

Mild mush was shown recently, now we have ANOTHER cold spell on the way. NO Meto warnings because THEY cant predict how much/if any snow anyone will get until 24hrs before event.

For GOD SAKE..............LETS ENJOY !!!!!!!

Sorry Mods !!

This is exactly why this thread is rubbish lately, don't think I'll bother anymore.

[karyo]

Good news the MJO has slowed down and is slowly creeping towards phase 8.

http://www.cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.html

We don't want it to move too quickly though phase 7 and 8.

Indeed Nick, that's good news!

Karyo

[MR EXTREMES]

come on peeps what steve does say makes sense although the approach is most likely out of frustration.

still this is not excuse and im sure he is most likely sorry now,

but inregards to cold building this seems to be the trend so wait and see would be likely.

i expect the models will show more soon im very excited and happy to see maybe another month below normal.

as for thread upset there is a report button and pm option so lets keep this thread going as best as we can chill peeps.;)

[yipikiaye]

Typical heavy snow forecast this coming week for the south west and yet no warnings in place by the met office yawn

Only 18 days till the snow cut off date takes effect

Edited February 7, 2010 by yipikiaye

[FENDER.]

Typical heavy snow forecast this coming week for the south west and yet no warnings in place by the met office yawn

Only 18 days till the snow cut off date takes effect

What snow cut off date? It can and often does snow in March and even April