Model Output Discussion

[Steve Cooper]

Thats fair comment by most. Did not mean to get peoples backs up. Just looking forward to whats coming. Love the imput by most on here, but i feel WHAT puts most off is this constant arguing on here. I just hope we all get what we want in this spell.

Keep up the good work all.

[Suffolk Weather]

Can I suggest we all take a step back and look at the facts.

It's cold.

There's a possibility of snow over the week.

All the signals are starting to suggest that more snow could move in at the end of the week/into next week.

Eyes down for the 12z. Will it move the cool pool westwards sooner? Or will the high pressure stay in control for most of the country?...

[johnholmes]

Can I as one of the oldest members of NW, in terms of age, make a plea-sorry mods not directly about the models.

PLEASE stop niggling at one another.

Post your views, preferably with a chart or charts to illustrate your view.

Accept others may disagree but there is absolutely no need to get personal with one another. For heavens' sake its the weather. If you feel yourself getting uptight STOP making personal comments-hit the complain button and ask admin or a mod to sort it. Go for a walk outside-relax and for heaven sake TRY and ENJOY watching the models.

I have very very rarely copied and pasted the things which are causing problems along with the names of those doing it but if it carries on I am going to do just that and post it back in here so you can see how petty and childish those responsible are being.

Edited February 7, 2010 by johnholmes

[yipikiaye]

I like snow as much as anyone else if not more so.But always find once it gets to march its very unlikely/if it does it probably a snow/rain event.I dont think winter been that great apart from the 2 weeks of cold /snow at start of Jan other than that bit dissapointing mind u could be worse could be weeks of mild rain and wind.I think really i d just like weeks of cold weather with snow and ice on the ground for weeks on end .Maybe i should go live in Washington lol

[asjmcguire]

Personally I am now resigned to the fact that the SE Scottish Borders is not likely to see anything significant in the reliable timeframe (deep FI is another matter, but I will just ignore that) so provided we get some decent cold temps - they don't have to be record breaking though that would be nice!!

Also if the High Pressure means we are going to get cold sunny days so be it - what we have had the last 2 days is damp, miserable and horrible and makes you feel like you want to stay in bed all day

Finally, The Met Office not having at least Advisories for Scotland doesn't concern me much as we usually jump from having NO warnings of any kind, to suddenly being issued with a Flash Warning out of nowhere....

[aspire27]

Typical heavy snow forecast this coming week for the south west and yet no warnings in place by the met office yawn

Only 18 days till the snow cut off date takes effect

Do you have any charts showing this snow event? Thanks.

[snowingtequila]

What snow cut off date? It can and often does snow in March and even April

the snow cut off date is rubbish anyway, and not something I hear mentioned on here thank goodness. It would not apply in this instance anyway because it states that unless the country has received frontal or widespread snow by the cut off date we wil not get any.

I don't know why people are stating this cold spell has been downgraded, within the reliable forecast period no armegeddon falls of snow or cold were forecast and it seems to me the models have been consistant for this week for some time. what more do people want?

[yipikiaye]

Do you have any charts showing this snow event? Thanks.

No but i been looking at the netweather 7 day forecast and its got snow over us for early as midnight tonight.Maybe its a load of rubish hmm

[PubliusEnigma]

Well looking at the Fax charts, which I think are considered by most to be the reliable

within the reliable, so to speak, I have a nagging feeling that this coming week, will

prove very disappointing indeed to those hoping for snowfall and accumulations. By the time

the 528 dam line reaches parts of the S and SE, the High sinking from the NW ends up positioned

far to close to us to allow any depth in the atmostphere, so any light precipation which does

occur this week, is likely to be a mixture of drizzle, rain, sleet and snowgrains, none of

which will lead to any measurable snow cover, unless you are measuring in nanometers .

Thats my first concern, secondly we look like being stick under a cloudy inversion with the High

thats moving SE over the NW of the UK, so although there will be a slack NE flow, it will linger

over the N Sea for longer, and surface temps realistically are going to be 4 - 5oC for the most

part this week I fear certainly if winds remain light, and cloud and overcast skies persist all

week. There remains the risk of the HP sinking further, although out in FI charts are still

toying with the idea of a NW'ly regression towards Greenland, but that is firmly in FI territory

and we really need to wait a week until next Sunday to see how that pans out. The heaviest precipitation

if you can call it that is likely to occur tomorrow, and that sadly is before the 528 dam line

ecroaches, and with no frost in the ground, and lowers well above freezing, snow, despite mr

Schaffernackers forecast, is looking unlikely.

Thursday's chart is probably the most disappointing of the week for cold lovers.

It shows the HP starting to ridge SSE towards the Med, there are cut off lows to the north West

and potential warm sectors lining up to the North to come south over the Country, and the

528dam line starting to draw away back to the east especially in Scotland. Beyond thursday if the

T120 chart is anything to go buy, the HP could slowly warm to become a dirty HP surrounded by

potential warm sectors. With milder SE'ly winds streaming towards eastern europe the 528 dam

line is being squeezed from the NW and the east and is shrinking. This whole set up is lacking

desperatley needed support over Scandi in the form of High Pressure.

\This is very much my take on things, and others my poo poo the idea, however it is prudent to

excercise caution over the much anticipated and predicted snow fall that is being forecast in

certain quarters. Any noticible cold remains firmly in FI for now.

Cheers

[Iceberg]

Kind of model related but I saw that schanfaffer block on the beeb and he pretty much support many of the comments on here and certianly the METO precip charts out to wed, by showing a mixture of rain/sleet and snow on Monday, patch and light for a fair chunk of central, eastern and southen england and then Wed more persistant light snow from the IOW eastwards, approx half of the country as a trough moved down.

[Bobby]

Not sure why people are banking on events so far out? Maybe its because this week the cold that was showing is now been pushed back. I think last thursday the models were showing much colder temps for today but things have turned out different (7.5 degrees here). I hope the models stay consistant with regards to cold but looking so far ahead is a little silly if you ask me, but it is ok for looknig for trends. This time next sunday you never know, we may be in a really potent cold spell, or we could be once again looking into FI for our cold snowy weather.

I'm not banking on them but there is strong cross model agreement on a Greenland high in the next 7 days or so, strong signals of a Greenland high from the teleconnections too. Greenland highs are tremendous for cold snowy weather (not always but they're a very good sign). So there is strong suggestion of a more interesting cold and snowy spell as we head into next weekend and beyond. Not guaranteed but I'd bet my money it.

[nick sussex]

I think its true to say if a cold spell dosent produce any snow then its pointless even having the cold spell in the first place.Well id agree with that view some others may not

I can understand that point of view, however cold spells often throw up surprises, I think too many people look at the specifics and not the general pattern. At the moment theres IMO at least a 10 day window of opportunity in terms of the minimum length to the cold, I'd be surprised if there weren't a few surprises in that for areas that at this moment in time might think they're not favoured.

[Ben_Cambs]

I can understand that point of view, however cold spells often throw up surprises, I think too many people look at the specifics and not the general pattern. At the moment theres IMO at least a 10 day window of opportunity in terms of the minimum length to the cold, I'd be surprised if there weren't a few surprises in that for areas that at this moment in time might think they're not favoured.

Agreed Nick, things like troughs which some parts of the UK may recieve on Wednesday night might not be picked up until a very short time range. Im confident that all areas will have a chance with snow over the next 2 weeks or so, especially towards the end of the week coming with the high retrogressing North Westwards and the snow risk would extend to a much larger area.

Now lets see what GFS 12z brings up

[SteveB]

Sorry but its not 4 degrees here. As i said 7.5 highest today. Been discussing temps on the SW regional thread and people have been recording the same. So as you said, and as i said the models last thursday were showing temps of 3-4 degrees for today....im just saying its not that cold thats all.

Max of 6.3c her today in Weston which is about as high as what was predited for our area today. You must be in a warm area which has its own micro-climate or something.

This cold spell has the potential to deliver later down the line, but for the mean time just enjoy the cool to cold days & frosty nights. You never know, there might even be the odd surprise.

[johnholmes]

As I've posted in the local thread-the problem is most people are looking at charts as they simply show-almost the flat earth idea, no disrespect intended, but the weather is 3 dimensional. Take a look, for your own areas all of you, at the skew-t diagrams.

Some of them will show little sign of 'sunshine and showers' but many down the eastern side will show that-I did a blog I think yesterday to try and help illustrate that idea. Do take a look, and if you are down the eastern side, say Yorks down E Anglia into Kent perhaps, drop in and see the pdf I'm going to post this evening using Doncaster skew-t to try and illustrate this 3 dimensional idea.

Indeed even before then call up the latest sat picc-show the visual in detail over the UK. Look east at that awful Sc/St cloud sheet and tell me if it extends all the way across the N Sea?

Edited February 7, 2010 by johnholmes

[Geordiesnow]

This cold spell is slowly turning into a bit of a damp squib don't people think, theres barely any PPN left even in the east and se, the uppers are not as cold as they once were and day time temps could get up to 5 or 6C in any Sunshine.

Night time frosts i feel will be the main talking point at least for the early part of next week rather than snowfall. Don't get me wrong, there will probably be snow around but this easterly will probably have less snow than the recent northerly we had which by some was dismissed as "pointless".

Its amazing how much the models have downgraded this easterly but this goes to show the outlook is not always as clear cut even if we do get agreement although to be fair, the models have agreed that some sort of easterly flow was on its way for a little while now.

As ever though, its what the radar says and there might be a few surprises on the way.

[claret047]

Not sure why people are banking on events so far out? Maybe its because this week the cold that was showing is now been pushed back. I think last thursday the models were showing much colder temps for today but things have turned out different (7.5 degrees here). I hope the models stay consistant with regards to cold but looking so far ahead is a little silly if you ask me, but it is ok for looknig for trends. This time next sunday you never know, we may be in a really potent cold spell, or we could be once again looking into FI for our cold snowy weather.

Although I agree with you to an extent I would put out that here in mid Essex the current temperature is only 2C and so the colder weather has reached southeastern parts and is on it's way westwards although it may be a rather slow process.

Looking at the latest models they are certainly programming a potent northerly towards the end of the week. Thursday/Friday looking particularly favourable for us in the east.

Thereafter a more nationwide event especially so in the northern districts.

[MR EXTREMES]

I can understand that point of view, however cold spells often throw up surprises, I think too many people look at the specifics and not the general pattern. At the moment theres IMO at least a 10 day window of opportunity in terms of the minimum length to the cold, I'd be surprised if there weren't a few surprises in that for areas that at this moment in time might think they're not favoured.

lol i agree the models not even shown there next set of charts and people are already playing it down id like to add some post are really out of the blue and unrealated.

ive been guilty of getting very downbeat but looks whats infront of us read gp and cm steve murrs nicks ect ect posts they help.

the models are in very firm agreement of cold whether it be this week or next week its still coming.

as for snowfall it will 100% happen.

Edited February 7, 2010 by badboy657

[john mac]

850s of -10 over EA & SE by t84 looking good

[CroatianWeather]

Really impresive cold air on 850hPa over central and south Europe next week.It would be really cold.....

Also southeastern parts of UK can expect cold wave!!!

[PMPhotography]

It's not looking too bad here In Scarborough for the foreseable. Tomorrow looks likely snow showers. I was initially worried about coastal margins but 850hpa's at -8C from tomorrow with DAM around 524 with moderate PPN.

There seems to be a slightly warmer sector on Tuesday though increasing marginality here but still wintry. After that no worries at all, just need the PPN! Wednesday evening could be interesting if that trough pulls off.

Overall not too bad

[MR EXTREMES]

Really impresive cold air on 850hPa over central and south Europe next week.It would be really cold.....

Also southeastern parts of UK can expect cold wave!!!

i think this is a excellent chart even if its heading south into europe theres a strong possibility this could be mixed towards us so if we got a southeasterly it would be exciting also.

lets hope the charts keep coming forget the percip lets get some good cold air first.

[nick sussex]

In typical model fashion the UKMO goes from zero to hero at 120hrs! Looks better than the GFS with a stronger easterly flow.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=&ech=120&carte=1021

Edited February 7, 2010 by nick sussex

[john mac]

the Gfs 12z has the high further south for about 24hrs before it starts to retrograde, cant really see why people are being so negative on here this afternoon, i think they must have scared everyone off, i thought it would be much busier.

By the way, just had our first shower of the afternoon which was rain witha slight bit of sleetyness mixed in

[MR EXTREMES]

In typical model fashion the UKMO goes from zero to hero at 120hrs! Looks better than the GFS with a stronger easterly flow.

well thats good my point been made now nobody can say its over until the fat lady sings and shes been muted lol.

now i expect the ecm will be totally different later this is my point.

120 hours is good timeframe aswell