Model Output Discussion

[snowmadchrisuk]

Well i'm down in Weston - Super - Mare for a couple of days and I can assure you it is FREEZING right now . General trend looks good still to me , There is way to much energy to our South or the High to sink and this can only send the High North eventually . This also obviously Increases Snow potential from the South ten fold . We run the risk of warm sectors but with the Cold air getting entrenched then everything should be fine inland.

[loopydreamer]

This loop of the Atlantic coming up against the brick wall of the Scandi high off the west coast of Ireland is a pretty graphic depiction of the situation.

http://www.sat24.com...at=ir&type=loop

wow! that really is amazing to see! im still a bit of a novice when it comes to the weather so thanks for putting that up! it had me transfixed for a few minutes

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think that's a fair assessment. Minor changes in terms of where the High is could make for significant differences in terms of PPN. But beyond that it does look very good for a prolonged cold spell, it's difficult to see how the Atlantic can breakthru at the moment. Things can change quickly of course, this time last week the ECM showed the potential for 17C today !

Things haven't changed though Ian, only the charts. This cold spell was picked up on and progged some time ago...just the models didn't pick up on the signal and it is going to happen for sure.

I for one am really looking forward to big Steve MURR's [long] post later, and for newbies make sure you read it...it'll contain loads of explanations and reasons why what is being projected and likely to happen.

12Z is upgrade for sure, UKMO is upgrade for sure. SE favoured for sure BUT generally further NW you are the drier you are likely to remain.

P E it was 31 Dec 78...and here it is

BFTP

Edited February 7, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[wee]

When will Steve murr put his post up later? as need to go and do some stuff but dont want to miss it,thanks.

[Eugene]

I hear lots of it won't be that cold by day well at night it will be with -10C or lower possible in the usual spots later in the week in england and wales, some lovely harsh frosts at night nothing better IMO.

[MR EXTREMES]

Still plenty of time for the high to shift furthur north and then its game on for you, i think we are in good shape for some snow especially if a thames steamer can develop like last feb. Got over 8inches from that event.

the high is not going to sink lewis i think your way of the mark.

the high is not going to sink to far south and we hope it dont go to far north or west its prog to return around greenland opening the doors to good cold.

great charts tonight good to hear ukmo not far behind the ecm aswell.

its easy to sit and pick holes but the model outputs are not 100% gospel there are used to build a bigger picture human input does the rest and when you get a meto update like today then theres no reason to think everything is a downgrade.

its simple read the posts that matter the most ie forget the downgrade until you see a top poster say downgrade then moan,

but my advice if your a newbie like me then keep an eye on the indeapth posts not the 1 liner downgrade posts.

i honest think that the setup will be a mixture of ecm and ukmo either way cold also progressively cold with the teleconnection to fall in place aswell.

and BFTP that my friend is a sausage special thats what id love and i think steve m would be very happy to see that happen.

Edited February 7, 2010 by badboy657

[Frosty.]

Good model agreement for a cold week ahead but with only slight accumulations of snow expected in eastern england and eastern scotland, most of the uk will be enjoying sunny weather and feeling pleasant in the sun but frosty nights for many. Once again it's FI when there could be more in the way of snow.

Edited February 7, 2010 by Frosty039

[Matty M]

ECM looks good for the southeast England at 72hrs

Shame for my point of view that the trough cant dig further west and undercut the high more to the west.

Gudance suggest the high falling over Ireland around 96hrs before attempting to regress towards Greeny again from 120hrs

[cheeky_monkey]

I hear lots of it won't be that cold by day well at night it will be with -10C or lower possible in the usual spots later in the week in england and wales, some lovely harsh frosts at night nothing better IMO.

you will need a decent amount of snow cover to gain those kind of numbers me thinks..cant see where that will come from before the end of the week away from some very favoured parts.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ECM looks good for the southeast England at 72hrs

Shame for my point of view that the trough cant dig further west and undercut the high more to the west.

Gudance suggest the high falling over Ireland around 96hrs before attempting to regress towards Greeny again from 120hrs

Yes matty, not looking like to much in the way of snow for Ireland next week to close to the high i think.

Hopefully you can generate some showers off the irish sea but im not even sure the -10 uppers reach the emerald isle at all next week?

[TEITS]

Splendid start from the ECM.

Snow showers for E areas, including NE England also. Could well move inland aswell.

The +120 should show the E,ly backing W.

Edited February 7, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Matty M]

Yes matty, not looking like to much in the way of snow for Ireland next week to close to the high i think.

Hopefully you can generate some showers off the irish sea but im not even sure the -10 uppers reach the emerald isle at all next week?

Yea its a tough one, if we can get a few more little upgrades ala ECM over the next few days we could get something.

From my past experience if we can get -10c 850hpas sitting over the Irish sea, an easterly fetch and pressure below around 1025mb

it can make snow showers.

I am hopeful but not too much so.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Yea its a tough one, if we can get a few more little upgrades ala ECM over the next few days we could get something.

From my past experience if we can get -10c 850hpas sitting over the Irish sea, an easterly fetch and pressure below around 1025mb

it can make snow showers.

I am hopeful but not too much so.

Yea well seeing as my nan was from Limerick i always keep an eye on you guys with my toes crossed.

ithink ecm shows more of an east wind so maybe the irish sea can come up trumps afterall!!

[cold snap]

Frustating as it maybe when as we see the good PPN geting pushed back into F1

One thing i can say is at least it keeps the intrest going into the week and following week

At least we are not looking at a Bartlett.

This evolution is really slow,and not as fast paced as previous cold advanves that we have had,not helped by that high siting above Scotland.

Alot of patience required this week,We are still on good course.But a slow course

ECM GFS UKMO all going the same good slow way.

Edited February 7, 2010 by cold snap

[Bobby]

Unless you're in East or South East England it's looking pretty much dry until the latter part of next week. Even in the SE don't expect much until then, dustings mainly I expect. However the snow risk looks to be increasing a fair bit as we head past Thursday/Friday with perhaps more widespread and heavier snowfall from developing features, even into the West. Then the high looks to migrate to Greenland opening the risk of more widespread significant snowfall and cold with an Arctic outbreak and battleground snow events from Atlantic attacks looking a possibility.

That's my thoughts on next week from the models. ECM is looking better than GFS so far...

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Unless you're in East or South East England it's looking pretty much dry until the latter part of next week. Even in the SE don't expect much until then, dustings mainly I expect. However the snow risk looks to be increasing a fair bit as we head past Thursday/Friday with perhaps more widespread and heavier snowfall from developing features, even into the West. Then the high looks to migrate to Greenland opening the risk of more widespread significant snowfall and cold with an Arctic outbreak and battleground snow events from Atlantic attacks looking a possibility.

That's my thoughts on next week from the models. ECM is looking better than GFS so far...

I disagree,i think the SE and many down the east coast could get a pasting next week.Hope im right for the SE contingent.I think ecm will bring heavy snow showers esp the SE.

So sorry i didnt read your post correctly you do mention heavier snowfall thur.

Edited February 7, 2010 by happy days

[Jamie.]

This loop of the Atlantic coming up against the brick wall of the Scandi high off the west coast of Ireland is a pretty graphic depiction of the situation.

http://www.sat24.com...at=ir&type=loop

Cool!

You can see the atlantic moving swiftly in to portugal/spain but there is very little cloud movement west over us. Interesting!

[cooling climate]

Both Euro models keep better heights to the nortwest and the cold pool to the east encroaches

nearer to the UK than the GFS operational run.

In simply terms this means the Euro models would tend to bring the colder air in quicker and

also their would be more shower activity than what the GFS run shows.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

mind you I like the GEFS control, that looks very snowy, and a snowfest from the Atlantic in deep FI , before turning milder during half term

Edited February 7, 2010 by mark forster 630

[Bobby]

ECM is looking more like the GFS ensemble mean than the op which the suggests the op is a bit wrong on this:

GFS mean at +144

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ECM is looking more like the GFS ensemble mean than the op which the suggests the op is a bit wrong on this:

GFS mean at +144

That GEFS mean looks awesome with a cold pool moving in and snow showers widely id have thought.

[Bobby]

ECM at +168

Arctic blast charging... ready and waiting.

That GEFS mean looks awesome with a cold pool moving in and snow showers widely id have thought.

Yes much better than the OP.

[LomondSnowstorm]

That GEFS mean looks awesome with a cold pool moving in and snow showers widely id have thought.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-0-132.png?12

A much better cold pool for northeast England and Eastern Scotland also, so showers even here entirely probable.

The ECM is a run that most people will be happy with, I think. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-192.GIF?07-0

Some nice purples in that flow!

LS

[Matty M]

Looks like entire Polar Vortex is on its way to Britain and Ireland at 216hrs on the ECM!!

[MR EXTREMES]

ECM at +168

http://www.meteociel...M1-168.GIF?07-0

Arctic blast charging... ready and waiting.

Yes much better than the OP.

yep excellent charts from the ecm noticed the peeps on the country file forecast very confident cold staying with us snow coming peeps even for western side of england.

and to top it off the high does slip off towards greenland.

so couple this with the models game on for cold snow woop woop:drinks: