Model Output Discussion

[snowblizzard]

Oh dear, this looks pretty dull and boring!

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/brack4.gif

No wonder there's no excitement and so few posts in this thread tonight.

Tell me, where's any sustained Easterly is going to come from?

Edited February 7, 2010 by snowblizzard

[snowking]

Oh jesus here we go again! Just cut it out guys, Robert makes a perfectly valid point

I'm a bit bewildered as to the comment of not much going on with those fax charts

Trough crossing most of the southern half of the UK (infact that is the second trough to do so, with one passing through around the 36-48hr period), with an elongated front running down the eastern side of the UK

Plenty going on, I suspect perhaps the comment was made with regard to the fact very little is shown over the far SE on the fax charts - hopefully somebody has learnt by now that these charts arent going to pick up everything that happens until a far more reliable timeframe!

Im pretty pleased with the FAX tonight to be honest

SK

[damianslaw]

Models beginning to show proper retrogression of heights to Greenland later next week heradling a potent arctic blast with widespread snowfall. Next week looks preety tame in the main for snowfall, it is going to be about the cold mins in the west.. however, its later next week and into the following week when the fun and games really begin, all eyes should be to the north longer term not the east - teleconnections support a deep potent arctic airflow from next weekend onwards..

[FENDER.]

If you lived near the east coast, you might feel different. But I will agree that Easterlies are over hyped. Rarely do they produce much for the bulk of the country

Give me a northerley anyday

[TEITS]

Have to say im disappointed with some of the posts on this thread this evening.

At the moment we continue to see some uncertainity for the middle part of next week onwards with the 18Z GFS/NOGAPS showing a different trend to the UKMO/ECM. I find when this happens I try and take a blend of what each model is showing and base a forecast on that.

Based on the models next week currently looks like this.

Sunday-Tues. Cold with a few wintry showers in places with temps on Sunday being around 3C. On Monday the temps look likely to be a few degrees colder with temps around 1-2C. During Tues temps might be a little bit higher due to the flow coming off the N Sea with temps around 3-4C.

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/06/basis18/ukuk/tmp2/10020818_0618.gif

Wed-Saturday. This period is the most uncertain at the moment. However taking into account the fax charts/UKMO/ECM/GFS I would suggest snow showers moving into E parts with these becoming heavier and more widespread during Fri/Sat. A risk of more prolonged snow remains a possiblity in E Anglia/SE. The temps during the latter half of the week will struggle to rise much above freezing.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack3.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif

Sunday into the following week. The E,ly continuing during the weekend with a continued risk of snow showers which may include more N areas of the UK aswell. Into the following week and a strong signal the HP will move NW and introduce a N,ly flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.png

This is all subject to change but in my opinion this is a fair assesment of all the model output today.

[Craigers]

just remember when gfs had loads of support for the past great cold spell!!!! was way out in FI but it was consistent on every run with back up so if next weekend sustains agreement and back up then F1 has more chance of reality! patients is the key!

[FENDER.]

The trouble is that I dont see where the easterley flow actually strengthens,

I would love a bitter east flow, with gale force winds, blowing the showers right across the country. But the just dont see anything to suggest that.

[TEITS]

I would love a bitter east flow, with gale force winds, blowing the showers right across the country. But the just dont see anything to suggest that.

For the UK to witness gale force E,lys would probably require a LP system tracking along the channel with strong E,ly winds on the N flank.

Lets not make the same mistake as some did with the cold spell in Jan by suggesting it will be dry when obviously that wasn't the case. Whilst the pattern remains uncertain its very difficult to pin down any details. My summary was based on all the model output but will most likely change tomorrow.

Before I pop to bed ideally we want the UKMO/ECM to show this tomorrow.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/nogaps/run/nogaps-0-96.png?06-23

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/nogaps/run/nogaps-0-120.png?06-23

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/nogaps/run/nogaps-0-144.png?06-23

I will also add that an E,ly followed by retrogression to Greenland with a possible N,ly is about as good as it gets in the UK. Far better than the mild SW,lys the models were suggesting!

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

I hope they do TEITS but isnt the UKMO much more relaible in the 72 hour frame? Thankyou for your posts they are only a few on here with superior knowledge in being to explain whats occurring and is likely to happen.

[cheeky_monkey]

The GFS 00 Hrs seems to me an improved run with regards to snowfall across the southern half of the UK and espcially a big improvement for the south west..the high never really get too far south before retrograding north again towards the end of the week..allowing small troughs to run across the south..with the potential for a decent channel low pushing in from the south west later to engage the cold..perhaps producing an old style snowfest???

[FatherOf2]

I am one of the many winter lurkers in this forum and decided to dip in with a few comments about the midnight GFS as it is quiet enough not to interfere with the more valuable posts which will no doubt follow later.

Only looked out to 180 hrs but am very pleased with the run, the unstable cold pool of air comes down from Scandanavia coming into contact with us and stalling over France by the end of the week, the remains oscillating back into Southern Britain during the weekend. 528 dam covering England and Wales almost all the period and even a 510 for 24 hours over parts. Surely some reasonable falls of snow possible over many parts of England. My previous concern was the break off from the jet near the dardanelles, which is taking warmer uppers into Eastern Europe then towards us but thankfully the temperatures around it fall by the time it hits our shores.

The icing on the cake at 180 hours is the heights of 1055 over Greenland which hopefully will play it's part in keeping the Atlantic depressions running south (Suppose it is a long way out but heights start building from midweek so a quite possible progression)

[rosgar]

Excellent analysis there, without any drama. A pleasure to read

[Iceberg]

A Much improved ECMWF, pressure generally below 1020mb south of the M4 as opposed to 1020-1025mb, winds stronger carrying the showers more inland, and then the ECM going into much lower pressure but still cold as go into FI with more snow.

Similar in some ways to the GFS, really quite snowy once we get to and beyond Wed, cold throughout the run again.

It does look as though the cold will last until the 20th of Feb so probably a 2 week cold spell and snow at somepoint in the next 7 days for most.

Any the most interesting feature for me, is still the meso low/open wave I was talking about yesterday afternoon thats still being progged to develop later this week.

The first diagram shows the open wave, the second the closed low it forms as it moves into the SW, my gut tells me that this will be further east and that it will have a more pronounced warmer sector(still cold enough for snow), leading to more development earlier.

Anyway very good models still, all three.

[Frosty.]

NW Britain looks like having a lovely week ahead with high pressure in control giving sunny days with temps around 5 or 6c but with overnight frost and some fog. For the bulk of the uk it looks like slowly becoming colder with a sprinkling of increasingly wintry showers, especially in eastern counties bordering the north sea and the southeast of england generally. All the models show a prolonged cold spell but not severe during the week ahead, the ecm and gfs show the most wintry weather into FI but with little or no risk of mild weather returning, there is no reason why the cold won't slowly intensify into week 2 of the forecast period.

[Duane S.]

Seems to me the easterly is agan a waste of time for this country with regards to snowfall. Dry sunny cold days ahead this week with the odd snow shower in the east.

This forum is very east biased due to the members here which is fair enough, hope you all get the odd wintry shower this week.

I have read many posts regarding whats going to happen after this week, ie lots of cold and snow. This up and coming cold spell has only been showing for four days, the same

swith can still happen to show SW winds and rain.

Anyone who uses the term 'nailded' is a fool.

I like egg, but when its all over your faces again by this time next week Im not going to fancy it.

The models are showing cold dry sunny weather, then the atlantic will come back by this time next week. Again....if anyone here thinks in 7 days time, yes 7 days time that the country is under widespread minus temps and heavy snow showers is a ramper beyond rampers...and is a fool.

Moday, tuesday, wednesday = colder and dry. Behond that FI. Could be milder and drizzle.

Rubbish. Next weekend hey?? We have not finished this weekend yet and the cold has been downgraded already.

I have to say this is an awful post by somebody who either doesn't understand the models/the weather or has a massive chip on his shoulder for whatever reason. I struggle to believe this sort of post is written for any other purpose but to wind up other members.

Aspire you and your posts have inspired me to discover how the 'ignore' feature works

The models are yet again excellent this morning. An increasingly cold week, initially the further south and East the better in terms of any PPN. Keep watching for those kinks in the isobars to the south, I suspect we are going to see the formation of a trough and its whereabouts will be the big talking point later on this week. Even if not, there will be sufficient air instability to cause plenty of snow showers. The North and West will likely be drier and sunnier but later will come into the firing line too, especially if a Northerly forms as is being indicated at the moment.

We are being spoilt this winter.

[Frosty.]

GEM 00z showing a real arctic blast developing during FI but until then it looks a fairly benign run albeit increasingly cold under fairly high pressure with some sunshine but with widespread frosts and some snow showers in southeast britain, the best potential is later though.

[The Weather Dragon]

Excellent potential across all models for next week - the cold pattern is now well established & we could well be looking at a very wintry spell of weather towards next weekend. Another exciting week of model watching coming up. We couldn't ask for more.....could we?

[snowfish]

Excellent potential across all models for next week - the cold pattern is now well established & we could well be looking at a very wintry spell of weather towards next weekend. Another exciting week of model watching coming up. We couldn't ask for more.....could we?

All models are in full agreement which is truly magical...I am really happy about that! I think looking at the position of the low it may bring snow showers to the southeast as early as tuesday! ECM as somebody previously described definitely an improvement on its previous run and I am liking the retrogression into greenland by the high towards next weekend! A prolonged cold spell up until the 20th feb with the southern half of England in the firing line for snow! LOVIN' IT!!!

Edited February 7, 2010 by snowfish

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/gfs/precipitations/162h.htm

well if that comes off their will be blanket snow all over the uk from 8 to 14 feb at the moment

[Neilsouth]

The UKMO seems at odds with both the ecm and the gfs with a slacker flow and less chance of an easterly in the week , the gfs having the stronger flow... Who will be the victor?

Edited February 7, 2010 by neilsouth

[TEITS]

Some fantastic model output this morning. I have to admit over recent days I haven't been happy with the trend of the ECM for the +96/+144 period but thankfully this morning that downward trend has been replaced with a run that has far more potential. The UKMO is disappointing but looking at all the models I would say the ECM at +96 is a fair reflection of what many are suggesting.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

So based on this my summary remains similiar to last night. From midweek snow showers moving into E areas these becoming more widespread and frequent as the week progresses. The only difference I will say this morning compared to last night is during Fri/Sat the snow could move well inland to affect many regions and the showers might be replaced with more prolonged spells of snow.

Moving into Sunday and into the following week and the ECM is even more progressive than the 12Z!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

Excellent consistency from the models of a Greenland HP. Obviously detail isn't worth discussing but the risk of snowfall looks like continuing into the following week.

I forgot to add that during tonight/tomorrow a risk of light snow in E areas as we pull in the colder E,ly.

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/07/basis00/ukuk/prty/10020818_0700.gif

[Iceberg]

I missed this from the METO, hopefully the 06Z NAE will shed a bit more light.

A developing feature tomorrow, tomorrow night onthe UKMET GM across the south and central regions, intensifying as it reaches the south coast.

Interesting.....

[TEITS]

Very nice ECM ensembles.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

Note the slight rise which is consistent of a N,ly flow developing. I wouldn't worry about the rise in the extended ensembles because this always seems to happen.

[kpm62]

Some fantastic model output this morning. I have to admit over recent days I haven't been happy with the trend of the ECM for the +96/+144 period but thankfully this morning that downward trend has been replaced with a run that has far more potential. The UKMO is disappointing but looking at all the models I would say the ECM at +96 is a fair reflection of what many are suggesting.

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm961.gif

So based on this my summary remains similiar to last night. From midweek snow showers moving into E areas these becoming more widespread and frequent as the week progresses. The only difference I will say this morning compared to last night is during Fri/Sat the snow could move well inland to affect many regions and the showers might be replaced with more prolonged spells of snow.

Moving into Sunday and into the following week and the ECM is even more progressive than the 12Z!

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1681.gif

Excellent consistency from the models of a Greenland HP. Obviously detail isn't worth discussing but the risk of snowfall looks like continuing into the following week.

I forgot to add that during tonight/tomorrow a risk of light snow in E areas as we pull in the colder E,ly.

http://expert.weathe...020818_0700.gif

I agree the latest models are showing a severe spell of cold weather for next week ,into the following week .Monday night is when it seems it really starts to bite.Whether it will bring much snow with it is still to early to say ,but it seems the whole country will be hit ,particularly the E and SE,as the snow depth data models on this site seem to indicate.

[Iceberg]

I missed this from the METO, hopefully the 06Z NAE will shed a bit more light.

A developing feature tomorrow, tomorrow night onthe UKMET GM across the south and central regions, intensifying as it reaches the south coast.

Interesting.....Sorry with attachements this time.

Edited February 7, 2010 by Iceberg