North West Cold Spell Discussion

[damianslaw]

Yes as we are not expecting any precipitation tonight a hard frost is likely instead I would imagine some areas could record some pretty low minima tonight especially in those that have remaining snowcover GFS suggests -6 or lower could be possible for parts of our region so maybe no further snowfall but certainly a cold night and morning! Be interesting to see what some of you get down too especially those that have snowcover still intact as the temps could be very low for late February if the skies remain clear.

I got a few cm of snow this morning but most of it has melted away during the daytime now.

Anyway I am interested in the snow potential for later this week especially on Tuesday and Wednesday as even though I have had a lot of snow events this winter, and overall what has been a very snowy winter for this part of the world especially by recent standards, I still think it will be nice to get a very big dumping of snow that could rival record falls for a single event the sort of event I am thinking of is that of February 1996, could their be the potential for a similar event to that for this week as I have read post saying that their is the potential for very heavy snowfall totals for Northern England this week I did read that the latest Countryfile forecast suggests a mostly rain event for our region but that seems to be following the latest GFS output that puts the low further north (almost over Scotland) making it more marginal for us, but it seems to have little support from other model output including the UKMOs own model output and also I remember somebody posting on this forum that the February 1996 event was forecast to be rain at first but was then changed to heavy snow at a few hours notice, was that correct? Will be interesting to here your thoughts on this one also a question - how long did the February 1996 event last for and did it occur mainly overnight making the situation less marginal and is Tuesdays/Wednesdays event progged to occur overnight?

Luke

I wouldn't take too much notice of GFS this evening, it always has a tendency to overblow atlantic lows and send them on a more SW-NE path - the euros and UKMO I believe have this week more nailed with the lows taking a direct path over the centre of the country by the middle of the week.

As for comparisons with Feb 96 synoptics, this week is very different. In Feb 96 we had a stalling occulded front bumping into settled but very cold air courtesy of high pressure to the east, the colder air cut through the front maintaining a cold continental airflow from the SE, the front eventually moved out of the region only to fizzle and then backtrack west again as heights reintensified from the east.

This week we have a more typical atlantic-continental battle but on a north south axis as opposed to east west, where fronts decide to position themselves will determine where the snow falls, places on the northern and north western flanks will catch snow, this becoming sleety on the front and rain to the south and east. I doubt any front will bring such sustained precipitation as occured in Feb 96 to this region, however, the path of the low for late Tuesday through to Thursday is likely to favour the region away from coastal parts and southern areas where the milder air looks like inching in, later in the week I can see the cold air biting back with a potential north/north easterly for the weekend.

[Thunder Snow]

Had light snow for most of the afternoon, nothing major:(

[cheshire snow]

Very quiet on here again,NAE gives us another spell of snow Tues night/wed morning this time for the whole region

this lasting on and off through wed,however on wed afternoon looks like away from high ground this will revert back

to sleet/rain with this wintry mix lasting through thurs,then again on fri the rain/sleet reverts back to snow for low ground

as colder air digs back in from the north

all in all a bit messy with a very good chance of most places seeing snow,and the higher you are the better chance of snow

falling for a considerable time

C.S

[Winter Monsoon]

Only problem is the snow will be gone within a day

[LiverBird]

Only problem is the snow will be gone within a day

It's a shame when it goes that quickly. I do love seeing it fall though so it will be nice to see it throughout the day.

Fingers crossed for a nice fall for all of us in one go!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Asbolutely bitter today.Still some patches of snow here and patches of ice which have lasted throughout

yeasterday and today.This winter wont go away,cant remember many mild days since early Dec.

[Snow free zone]

Non event in Preston yesterday. A slight dusting yesterday morning but what was on the ground had gone by 11.30 ish. Cold again last night though, and its been another cold & crisp day today. It looks good for areas more N & E of here for the rest of the week.

I'm afraid that after a good winter for snow, (for here at least) it looks like we are going back towards the more expected sleety/wintry mix that we have become used to.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

i bet i get rain or sleet on wednesday

[dale leigh]

i bet i get rain or sleet on wednesday

hi are we in for any snow in the manchester area this week folks.

[damianslaw]

Some snow for most tomorrow evening and through the night, however, on lower ground it looks like quickly turning to sleet in southern parts, Cumbria will hold onto the snow longer but even here it looks like turning to rain by Wednesday away from higher ground.

It doesn't look the potent affair at first thought, doubt it will produce more than a couple of inches on low ground.

By Wednesday afternoon rain the order of the day, Thursday looks like rain but still snow on high ground, Friday will see the colder air digging in from the north so sleet and then back edge snow I imagine.

Best place to be for snow probably lakeland fells above about 500m.

Saturday looks a good wintry day - yes its a long way out, but the 528 dam line will be way to the south and under sunny skies it looks a good cold day.

Nice to see the 510 dam line creeping into the northern isles on Saturday, first time this season, it often does in late feb and early march when a arctic airstream develops.

[dale leigh]

thanks for that detaled report so we will still see some snow again brill.

[dale leigh]

i ment to say detailed lol

[cheshire snow]

Morning all

another brief snow event still on the cards for this evening for the whole region,amounts hard to call all depends when the PPN

turns back to rain,i would say snow ammounts probably about the same as last sunday morning 3-5cm on low ground

NAE gives us about 6-8 hrs of light and at times moderate snow,before reverting back to rain in the early hrs

of Wed morning for southern areas of the region.

C.S

[Weather-history]

,i would say snow ammounts probably about the same as last sunday morning 3-5cm on low ground

I think there is an important difference here though, the snow of Sunday morning came when the ground was still cold after a clear night. What snow fell stuck straight away

This time the snow is coming just after the warmest part of the day so the ground should be above freezing, so it will take time for accumulation to begin on lower ground. It could be like that Wednesday afternoon earlier this month when snow fell for a while before it started to accumulated. It all depends on intensity.

Edited February 23, 2010 by Mr_Data

[swainclubber]

such a shame the dew points go to high after midnight, not to worry though eh, its been a brill winter!

[les1234]

One last big one would bee nice ,but i don't think this winter is over yet .

[R.P. McMurphy]

Temp here is 2C at the moment with a dew point of -4.4C. I think the cloud cover will also help any surface temps a little better as well, as the Sun isn't beating down on it. I'm not expecting much if anything today / tonight anyways.

[karyo]

It is rather breezy today, so I expect the snow to be blowing around when it arrives.

I am not that bothered about how many cms we get on the ground as the next 2 days will be somewhat milder with some rain, so any accumulation will be very short lived! There may well be some rain on the back edge of the band tonight...

There is also interest for later in the week as the cold air moves back over us again, so any milder weather should be short lived!

The fun continues!

Karyo

[Storm Animal]

Looking promising for some more snow later on. Temp currently 1.3oC (at 12:00)and still a lot of lying snow, so it should settle readily ;o)

[weatherobsuk]

GFS seems to favour precip enhancement from the front as a injection of moisture from the Irish Sea is initiated over Northern Wales into the Northwest from Midnight to 0300am in the morning, transferring a heavier wave of PPN North following on into the early morning.

[La Bise]

The snowline seems to be just about right for the upper parts of the Peak District and even if it rains a bit, it will help consolidate snow up there when it gets cold again from friday. Excellent.

[cheshire snow]

Metcheck blown a fuse 25cm snow for me on Monday

C.S

[thewirral]

Should start snowing in Merseyside in the next hour. Looks promising for a few centimetres.

[Never snows where i live]

Metcheck blown a fuse 25cm snow for me on Monday

C.S

Have you a link for this please

[SP1986]

It will definitely be snow in Wirral and Liverpool.. coastal Wales is currently getting snow, this is Penmaenmawr on the A55 (or the coastal road as it is affectionately known) http://www.bbc.co.uk/wales/northwest/sites/trafficcams//pages/penmaenmawr_roundabout.shtml