Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

[grab my graupel]

Please continue :lol:

[Mark Bayley]

Interesting week coming up for our region starting with tomorrow morning. Still some uncertainty on the track of these lows. Someone in the UK is going to see quite a bit of snow though! Lets hope its us :lo:

[grab my graupel]

Interesting week coming up for our region starting with tomorrow morning. Still some uncertainty on the track of these lows. Someone in the UK is going to see quite a bit of snow though! Lets hope its us :lo:

Morning Mark Indeed. John's post in the previous thread filled me with optimism. I shall look forward to his updated forecast which I believe will be interesting

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Nothing of major interest here last night. There was a few snow grains amongst the frost but that was basically that. Very interested for tomorrow mornings prospects. TEITS posted a NAE (think that what its called) chart showing snow for pretty much all our region tomorrow morning.

[NCC1701]

Morning Mark Indeed. John's post in the previous thread filled me with optimism. I shall look forward to his updated forecast which I believe will be interesting

I didnt see Johns post but i have a good feeling about this set up i think i mentioned it a few days ago. It just seems right . I know it has nothing to do with gut feeling and is all down to the hands of the Gods so to speak but this could really hit Central Northern England quite hard on several occasions. I know this is all subject to substantial change and the slightest change could have a substantial affect on the outcome but heres hoping. Off out to Grandaughters Bday so will catch up on the charts later on. Fingers crossed they dont change! heres hoping but without the alchohol i have a bit of a hangover

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Just noticed as well that the met have issued a warning for tomorrow morning. This seems to have replaced Mondays risk as there is no warning anymore. Wednesday has also been added to the warnings. Interesting times ahead.

http://metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

[kold weather]

It does look interesting for you guys I have to admit, the 06z makes it a little marginal at times but quite a few ensemble members are perfect for you guys, its such a tight set-up though it has to be said, small differences will make the difference between rain and snow for you guys, esp because you will be on the eastern side of the system for a lot of the time.

The models do also look very interesting for you guys tomorrow morning as well. What makes it even more interesting for you guys is a low forms as it tracks across the Midlands and this forms a wrap around rather like that we saw on Thursday, except the models develop this one a little more strongly as the low is still not fully mature at this point and thus means it will probably stay decently strong compared to Thursday's attempt, timing is going to be vital with this one though since it looks likely to be mid morning when that occurs and as the day goes on things will become more marginal, esp as you pick up winds from the North Sea.

[reef]

Tomorrow morning is an interesting one, still marginal but much better overall than the other night. During the precipitation at sea level we have:

500-1000hPa thickness: 522DAM (good)

850-1000hPa thickness: 1290DAM (OK)

Zero Degree Level: 200m (good)

850hPa temperature: -6C (good)

925hPa temperature: -2C (good)

Dewpoint: 0-1C (not so good)

Surface Temp: 2C (not so good)

Quite a large gradient between 0-400m in height meaning any altitude will make a huge difference. Im still not confident on the chances of proper lying snow on low ground in the east but with the wind SSE instead of east like the other day there will be less modification of the lower layers so temperatures will be closer to what they need to be. Hopefully the precipitation will be intense enough though, if its light stuff then it'll be a case of drizzle again at sea level. Anyone above 100-150m will have a good day regardless Id say.

Current predicted precipitation:

[Lincs Observation]

Nothing of major interest here last night. There was a few snow grains amongst the frost but that was basically that. Very interested for tomorrow mornings prospects. TEITS posted a NAE (think that what its called) chart showing snow for pretty much all our region tomorrow morning.

Hi GSL

the prospects for snow this week look on the face of it excellent, As you say it starts tomorrow with up to three good hours of snow predicted for our region. Also its worth a mention that the Metoffice still have out an advisory for Monday too, which has been up for the past three days. further into the week has potential to put snowfall totals up.

Its been an amazing winter clocking up 30 snow days for us here and baring in mind im at sea level thats fantastic, still the last dying days of winter to go and early spring could see more potential, However my poor horses have been the victims of the cold due to the fact i dare let them out into the paddocks because they are so wet and have been all winter, from that perspective i would like to see a dry period very soon.

LO

typical the warning for Monday as i typed this has gone for it to be moved further down the week like GSL has mentioned

Edited February 20, 2010 by Lincs Observation

[johnholmes]

Morning Mark Indeed. John's post in the previous thread filled me with optimism. I shall look forward to his updated forecast which I believe will be interesting

ah-I had not realised I was doing an updated forecast!

I can if you so wish?

The summary by Reef is pretty well spot on in my view-taking all the parameters into consideration.

Oddly enough it may be south Yorks, for low ground, that MIGHT get a better snowfall than further north--partly due to the precip intensity-partly time of arrival.

This is what I sketched out for myself-Doncaster a short while ago

06z Extra data

06=1mm, temp=0 to -1C, Td=-1C, 0C=100m, 850mb=-7C=snow

09z=4mm, 0 to +1, <0C,200m, <-5C=snow

12z=2mm,0 to +3, +2, 350m, -5C=sleet prob

overall snow total based on above=4-6cm.

I'll do the same for here when the 12z comes in.

If any of you want to know about your own site-then do just as I have done-don't fiddle the numbers, be totally honest, then IF the model has the right 'handle' on it, you will get a realistic view of snow or not. The values are for sea level but do NOT take into account if the flow is coming off the sea for 10-15 miles, this does vary so its impossible to give a solid figure, so factor this in. IF you have height all the better.

The Peak and maybe south Pennines along with the Wolds (Yorks and Lincs) should get between 3 and 10cm I would imagine.

[Lewis]

Tomorrow morning is an interesting one, still marginal but much better overall than the other night. During the precipitation at sea level we have:

500-1000hPa thickness: 522DAM (good)

850-1000hPa thickness: 1290DAM (OK)

Zero Degree Level: 200m (good)

850hPa temperature: -6C (good)

925hPa temperature: -2C (good)

Dewpoint: 0-1C (not so good)

Surface Temp: 2C (not so good)

Quite a large gradient between 0-400m in height meaning any altitude will make a huge difference. Im still not confident on the chances of proper lying snow on low ground in the east but with the wind SSE instead of east like the other day there will be less modification of the lower layers so temperatures will be closer to what they need to be. Hopefully the precipitation will be intense enough though, if its light stuff then it'll be a case of drizzle again at sea level. Anyone above 100-150m will have a good day regardless Id say.

Current predicted precipitation:

Good post, it's all regarding the timing of the precipitation.

At the time the ligher precipitation hits with hopefully some heavier precipitation close behind, it will fall as snow, as dew point are fine, it's within an hour after when dews are expected to rise, although i don't think this will be the case.

I expect snow right down to the surface for all low lying areas, yes including Hull. 4cm+ I'm going for. Reason why is because if the precipitation is heavier and the 0c isotherm drops, i don't expect dews and temps to recover.

Lewis

[Craig in Leeds]

I have a small concern over Sundays potential snowfall maybe someone can help clear it up as I am sure its me missing something.

I decided to look at the 06z GFS precipitation charts to see where Sundays rain/sleet/snow was coming from. As you can see from the first chart, the precip should be just of the south west coast of Ireland.

Looking at the 12 noon Satellite, I can only see some shower clouds in that area.

So is this showery area one which is to develop, or am I missing something here?

Regards to all,

Craig.

[galba]

It all sounds very encouraging for an interesting week ahead.

Noticed that Met Office now have advisories out for Sunday and Wednesday...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/yh/yh_forecast_warnings.html

On Wednesday the ppn has "the potential to give accumulations of more than 15 cm of fresh snow in places."

I also noticed that http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ is showing continuous snowfall from 2100 Tuesday through to 0600 Thursday for Emley Moor. Could this be a little OTT ? :lol:

[Craigers]

great post john!!!!!!!! and reef also! 4-6cm for doncaster sounds like a nice upgrade and potential for a possible big snow event for yorkshire next week also! not usual that yorkshire is in proper firing line! :lol:

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Is the possible snow event tomorrow morning similar to that of Easter 2008? If so I think even the lowest ground should do ok. The bbc local forecast look promising too for the whole of our region.

[Cheese Rice]

Is the possible snow event tomorrow morning similar to that of Easter 2008? If so I think even the lowest ground should do ok. The bbc local forecast look promising too for the whole of our region.

No it isn't similar, the trough came down from the north this front is coming from west to east.

[Lewis]

No it isn't similar, the trough came down from the north this front is coming from west to east.

I think GSL meant in terms of snow/band and conditions.

Which the answer would be yes, it's similiar to that of Easter 08, although it's cominng from the West, and it's more localised.

lewis

Edited February 20, 2010 by Storm Force Lewis

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

I think GSL meant in terms of snow/band and conditions.

Which the answer would be yes, it's similiar to that of Easter 08, although it's cominng from the West, and it's more localised.

lewis

Thanks both of you. Perhaps I wasn't clear enough. What I meant was are the conditions tomorrow similar to that of Easter 2008. I am referring to the dew temps/air temps/dam etc.

[Lewis]

Thanks both of you. Perhaps I wasn't clear enough. What I meant was are the conditions tomorrow similar to that of Easter 2008. I am referring to the dew temps/air temps/dam etc.

Yes, marginal = best in these situations for more snowfall/accumulations.

Closer the dew and temp are = more saturation = larger snow flakes = heavier accumulations.

[Craigers]

Thanks both of you. Perhaps I wasn't clear enough. What I meant was are the conditions tomorrow similar to that of Easter 2008. I am referring to the dew temps/air temps/dam etc.

i do agree with you there! but wont melt as fast as it did in march though ofcourse :lol: snow is still there at whitby now from last nites snow! got webcam

http://www.wheeldale-hotel.co.uk/mapwebcam_ns.htm

snow on grass in the sun!

Yes, marginal = best in these situations for more snowfall/accumulations.

Closer the dew and temp are = more saturation = larger snow flakes = heavier accumulations.

yep and that snow event in jan was the best example as the dews and temps were just around 0c and sticking to everything! including bt lines in the streets!

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

i do agree with you there! but wont melt as fast as it did in march though ofcourse snow is still there at whitby now from last nites snow! got webcam

http://www.wheeldale...apwebcam_ns.htm

snow on grass in the sun!

I really hope not Craigers, I have never seen snow thaw as fast in my life. 3inch to nothing in 2 hours.

[Lewis]

See the difference is this time of the year, is of course the sun is not as strong as that in Easter, but it's easily strong enough now to shift 2 or 3 inches of snow in direct sunlight. Obviously the heavier the falls the less likely it will melt.

It will put us in good stead tonight as the surface temps have dropped from some low overnight mins, so for example tomorrow, if the snow settles with more in the way of cloud cover from the band of precipitation after it pass's through (which will be fairly slow moving) by the time it does move away the temps will drop anyhow as the sun starts to drop.

The reason why the surface temps are important also is because you won't get any melting underneath at the surface. If happens very often, even when the suns not beaming down. Tonight temps should get down to a good -2 to -4 in places, so when the precipitation hit's, hopefully temps wont have time to recover.

Lewis

Edited February 20, 2010 by Storm Force Lewis

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Heres what happened during that snowy morning 2 years ago. Really hope we will see something similar tomorrow.

[Cheese Rice]

So far the dusting still remains in places even in direct sunlight which is pretty good for this time of year, there is 1cm on the grass which is in direct sunlight which has yet to disappear so hopefully we will hang onto the snow till the frontal snow events. It would work in our favour if we have the base as I could see these event's having quite alot of wet snow so if we have got the snow already there we have a better chance of deep snow, as wet snow takes ages to settle.

Edited February 20, 2010 by 10123

[Craigers]

See the difference is this time of the year, is of course the sun is not as strong as that in Easter, but it's easily strong enough now to shift 2 or 3 inches of snow in direct sunlight. Obviously the heavier the falls the less likely it will melt.

It will put us in good stead tonight as the surface temps have dropped from some low overnight mins, so for example tomorrow, if the snow settles with more in the way of cloud cover from the band of precipitation after it pass's through (which will be fairly slow moving) by the time it does move away the temps will drop anyhow as the sun starts to drop.

The reason why the surface temps are important also is because you won't get any melting underneath at the surface. If happens very often, even when the suns not beaming down. Tonight temps should get down to a good -2 to -4 in places, so when the precipitation hit's, hopefully temps wont have time to recover.

Lewis

perfect way to explain how snow melts during these time periods! with cloud cover and nice ground temps tonight then it should be better than the easter event!