March CET

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I don't see a 'significant warm up' in the models at all. Compared to the coldness we have seen it will indeed be 'less cold' but any milder weather looks fairly shortlived with the pattern quite amplified and every chance of further northerly incursions down the line too.

I would still suggest that another below average month is on the cards - with just the deficit being cut back to a degree or so below average

[West is Best]

I would still suggest that another below average month is on the cards - with just the deficit being cut back to a degree or so below average

I must say I'm surprised at the confident suggestions about 5.5C or above. We are currently well below average with a pattern towards mild that is still stuck out in FI, if at all.

Another significantly below average month looks a near racing certainty to me.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Hello Richard - yes it would take a bigger turn around than occured in March 2005 to push the CET above average from here. As you say, any hints of anything properly milder remain on some model output a long way out

[SteveB]

3.0c, -2.0c to the 10th.

As others have said, above average looks unlikely.

[Milhouse]

Its worth noting that we are only 1/3 through the month with 20 days to go so a lot can change. Saturday should see the first widespread double figure temperatures so if the fairly mild conditions were to persist through the rest of the month we would end up close to average. I'm not basing this on what the models are showing, its just a possibility. Likewise i cant see any prolonged cold indicated either.

[summer blizzard]

March 2005 was 3.9C and ended at 7.2C, we only need 6.4C to be above average, so even taking into account that we are a bit over 0.5C below March 2005 at mid month, we can effectively average a degree lower and come out above average.

My opinion is the warmth will breakdown before the end of the month, so between 5C and 6C looks odds on to me.

[reef]

March 2005 was 3.9C and ended at 7.2C, we only need 6.4C to be above average, so even taking into account that we are a bit over 0.5C below March 2005 at mid month, we can effectively average a degree lower and come out above average.

My opinion is the warmth will breakdown before the end of the month, so between 5C and 6C looks odds on to me.

By my reckoning, we need a mean of 7.9C now to reach average and to be honest, the value required could climb more by midmonth as there arent really any widespread double figure days until after T+168 on the models. Unless things turn exceptionally mild, I think below average is the best bet. As we're only 10 days into the month though, anything is possible for the time being.

Also Interestingly:

1st-10th March 2006: 3.06C

1st-10th March 2010: 2.97C

Which gives an idea of how cold it has been.

[Weather-history]

Warmest second halves to March

2005: 10.3

1938: 10.0

1945: 9.4

1803: 9.3

1936: 9.3

1815: 9.1

1920: 9.1

1957: 9.1

Its shows how exceptional the second half of March 2005 was.

[kold weather]

The 12z ECM would pretty much make a below average pretty much a certainty, the 12z GFS probably make it a close run thing with some very mild nights in the latter part of the run.

That being said above average is still synoptically do able and some of the GFS ensembles would still probably get there as well. It should be noted as well that temps in this set-up tend to be a little under-estimated by the models as mins don't tend to go quite as low as progged, esp in cloudy high set-ups.

I'd guess 5-6C is still very much the range.

Edited March 11, 2010 by kold weather

[LomondSnowstorm]

The 12z ECM would pretty much make a below average pretty much a certainty, the 12z GFS probably make it a close run thing with some very mild nights in the latter part of the run.

That being said above average is still synoptically do able and some of the GFS ensembles would still probably get there as well. It should be noted as well that temps in this set-up tend to be a little under-estimated by the models as mins don't tend to go quite as low as progged, esp in cloudy high set-ups.

I'd guess 5-6C is still very much the range.

So my 5.5C looks another reasonable guess then!

[TonyH]

Although maxima here have been close to the average, the mean minima here so far is -3.5c.

[The PIT]

Day time temps have been c lose to normal for early march the last few days but night time below. If the mornings forecast is correct above average temps should resume this weekend.

[SteveB]

Still on 3.0c upto the 11th -2.1c

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

A relatively brief milder spell in the offing which will lift the CET somewhat - but every probability that this will be slowed and halted as pressure builds over or just to the north of the Uk and quiet, fairly cool weather with frosts overnight returns for the last week.

Still expect a below average CET, even if not as impressively below as it has been up to now

Edited March 12, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[kold weather]

Depends really NSSC, the 06z GFS is for a good chunk of the run mild or very mild, even bordering on warm towards the end of the run, and I' guess March would come in above average if that solution came off...

Meanwhile though the ECM develops a cut-off low which causes temps to be close to average or even a touch below so any warm up would indeed as you say brief.

Much depends on what model is right, the ECM would probably make a below average month just about a certainty, the 06z GFS would make above average the fav...

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I am looking at both the ECM and the GEM in respect of the medium term. GFS is prolonging and overdoing the milder synoptics - the developing ridge to the north is being underplayed. I'm also looking at it I guess in terms of what Brickfielder and Glacier Point suggested of late.

I think the first warm spell, for those who are looking for it, will come during April.

[kold weather]

Sure enough the 12z GFS has pretty much come inline with the ECM/GEM, with a very similar broad evolution.

Therefore if this is the trend then something between 4.5-5.5C would likely become the most probable outcome, though there is obviously still time for change. Either way now the GFS has dropped the idea of a very prolonged mild spell it seems just about nailed on we will come in below average, its just to what extent.

[Stu_London]

Sure enough the 12z GFS has pretty much come inline with the ECM/GEM, with a very similar broad evolution.

Therefore if this is the trend then something between 4.5-5.5C would likely become the most probable outcome, though there is obviously still time for change. Either way now the GFS has dropped the idea of a very prolonged mild spell it seems just about nailed on we will come in below average, its just to what extent.

Interesting that this pattern has persisted for 3 months across all of the models. Mild being downgraded - not used to it at all.

[Roger J Smith]

From 11 Dec to 12 March, a period of 91 days, the average CET value was about 2.1 C ... I find that quite astounding given the many discussions we used to have about possibly seeing a month below 3.0 C.

Oddly enough, that same period has averaged about 2 degrees above normal here -- we recently had our first below-normal readings in ages on the past two days.

[Stu_London]

Still on 3.0c upto the 11th -2.1c

3.2 to the 12th

[Stu_London]

3.3 to the 13th

Looks like the 18th might register the first double figure CET value of the year as part of a very mild spell lasting at least 3 days.

Any below average period of 2 days or more, between now and the end of the month however, will in my opinion secure another below average month

Edited March 14, 2010 by Stu_London

[Thundery wintry showers]

3.2C for the 1st-13th for Manley, so much the same as Hadley. By midmonth we will probably need around 9.3C for the second half of March to raise the CET above average (71-00). To beat the 61-90 average we would need about 8.0.

Both are achievable but if this attempted plunge from the north at around 6-7 days out comes to fruition, then it is almost certain to stay below the 71-00 average.

[The PIT]

If Netweather is right we'll be getting a mean off 8.5C next Wednesday and 11c for Thursday. Should be slightly higher in the cet zone. However quite a few days don't near this. Could be a close run thing and perhaps my punt of 5.5c isn't too bad.

[phil nw.]

Yes looking at all the output over the last 24hrs. a warmer 4-5days looks odds on ,at least in the CET area.

An upward trend for this week then in the March Figure.

At this stage though it looks likely that colder air will be coming back South by the weekend so the chance of a below avaerage Month still possible.

Inevitably now though unless we get a sustained direct Arctic/Polar Continental flow -such as shown on 12z GFS-a slower rise will still be evident even in PM air i think.

The increasing warmth of the sun inland and further south diluting any effect on the CET the cooler nights may have.

[SteveB]

3.6c to the 14th, -1.5c