March CET

[Optimus Prime]

Nones ruling out anything kold.

[damianslaw]

Can't see the CET rising that much over the next week, some very cold minima in the next 2-3 days and average maxima at best, maxima look like being quite supressed later in the week 6-8 degrees whereas minima will be higher but still only around 2-3 degree mark.

[SteveB]

2.9c to the 7th, -1.9c.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

That was a big drop, expect another one tomorrow, could be looking at around 2.6c

[reef]

2.9c to the 7th, -1.9c.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

That was a big drop, expect another one tomorrow, could be looking at around 2.6c

The min today is down as -5.3C, so another big drop yes.

1-8 March 2010 Mean Min: -1.97C (-3.40C).

[Weather-history]

however that being said March 2005 was down at 3.88C by mid March yet that month ended up above 7C thanks to a very mild second half...so we still can't rule out something as much as 1C above average however unlikely it looks...

Bit of an understatement calling it very mild, it was exceptionally mild. Infact, it was the mildest second half to March on record for the CET with 10.3

[Stu_London]

2.9c to the 7th, -1.9c.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

That was a big drop, expect another one tomorrow, could be looking at around 2.6c

After tomorrow, the trend should be up, but ever so slowly. I wouldn't expect a half way value any higher than about 3.3C

Below average looks nailed on

Sub 6 - strong odd on

[Thundery wintry showers]

I wouldn't rule out an above average March just yet. Some of the models are hinting at a possible transition to mild, moist tropical westerlies around midmonth- the sort of pattern that can promote high minima as well as high maxima due to cloud cover- and if that sort of regime "locks in" for the second half of the month it could send the CET rising very quickly.

[kold weather]

After tomorrow, the trend should be up, but ever so slowly. I wouldn't expect a half way value any higher than about 3.3C

Below average looks nailed on

Sub 6 - strong odd on

I'm not sure its nailed on either to be honest, the 06z suggests a set-up that really isn't that far removed from the 2005 evolution for the second half of the month and whilst I have few doubts it may be overdoing it as per normal, the trend is a slow change to milder weather eventually, its just how long that process takes.

Still March 05 was down at 3.88C and ended up nearly 1C above normal so it'll still be more then do able...but its not likely I will admit that!

Besides, I'm going to need a decent correction to get the CET close to my punt of 5.5C!

[SteveB]

I'm not sure its nailed on either to be honest, the 06z suggests a set-up that really isn't that far removed from the 2005 evolution for the second half of the month and whilst I have few doubts it may be overdoing it as per normal, the trend is a slow change to milder weather eventually, its just how long that process takes.

Still March 05 was down at 3.88C and ended up nearly 1C above normal so it'll still be more then do able...but its not likely I will admit that!

Besides, I'm going to need a decent correction to get the CET close to my punt of 5.5C!

At what point in the Month would you say that an above average CET is unlikely?

[The PIT]

Well the clouds arrived here but is fairly thin. I suspect it's got further west further south so tonight's mins won't be as low so probably a slow rise from Tuesday onwards.

[Stu_London]

I wouldn't rule out an above average March just yet. Some of the models are hinting at a possible transition to mild, moist tropical westerlies around midmonth- the sort of pattern that can promote high minima as well as high maxima due to cloud cover- and if that sort of regime "locks in" for the second half of the month it could send the CET rising very quickly.

Although there does look like being a transition to somewhat milder conditions (quite welcome, btw), the immediate outlook for the next week isn't that mild and will see only a slow recovery. By that time we will need something like 9.0C to 9.5C for a two week period to get above average - not impossible as 2005 showed, however with the current profile, it would be pretty exceptional.

Between 5 and 6 looks the call to me.

At what point in the Month would you say that an above average CET is unlikely?

Much depends on how far below you are in running and what the immediate outlook is.

Personally I believe an above average CET for March is already in the unlikely (less than 10%) category, although as others have pointed out in a transitional month like March, where the average temp is much higher at month end than month beginning, things can change rapidly

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

If the overall modelling of this morning was to verify then the CET would end the month below average. As long as the jet stream remains amplified then colder incursions are always able to return to balance out any milder one's.

[SteveB]

2.7c to the 8th, -2.2c.

I notice FI has changed once again with milder weather in the outer reaches. But upto mid month things still look below average.

[kold weather]

I think its quite clear the trend will be for it to become milder past midmonth, that doesn't preclude getting NW/N at some point but I do think we are heading towards a 15 day spell which will be fairly above average, with the Azores high being the dominant factor, much depends on just how much LP intrusion from the NW we can manage to get.

FWIW some of the GFS ensembles are VERY above average, in fact probably quite a few of them would lead to the CET bring above average by the end of month with a mild spell akin to the second half of March 2005....so above average still very possible...

I'd say 5-6C is indeed the rough range, but with the caveat that above average is very much do able, and if anything the odds for that hgas increased quite a lot over the last 48hrs....I'd say 25% risk of above average, despite a very cold first half to the monthy, if some of the GFS ensembles are right then 9-12C range days are more then reachable....

Edited March 9, 2010 by kold weather

[karyo]

I think its quite clear the trend will be for it to become milder past midmonth, that doesn't preclude getting NW/N at some point but I do think we are heading towards a 15 day spell which will be fairly above average, with the Azores high being the dominant factor, much depends on just how much LP intrusion from the NW we can manage to get.

FWIW some of the GFS ensembles are VERY above average, in fact probably quite a few of them would lead to the CET bring above average by the end of month with a mild spell akin to the second half of March 2005....so above average still very possible...

I'd say 5-6C is indeed the rough range, but with the caveat that above average is very much do able, and if anything the odds for that hgas increased quite a lot over the last 48hrs....I'd say 25% risk of above average, despite a very cold first half to the monthy, if some of the GFS ensembles are right then 9-12C range days are more then reachable....

This looks possible now! However, what the models currently show, is in contrast to what Brickfielder and GP posted in the In depth model discussion thread. Further changes are possible.

Karyo

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

The models, well mostly the GFS, are over cooking the milder pattern. The GFS ensembles change like the wind so nothing to read too much into them.

Less cold is a probability at least for a while - but I think the models are being over progressive with trying to force change the pattern.

[BornFromTheVoid]

For Ireland so far this month, everywhere is running at least 2C below the 61-90 average, most are over 3C below average and Dublin Airport is at 1.7, which is 4.6C below average! 1.7C was the figure it finished at for January too.

[damianslaw]

Doubt the final CET will be much above average if above at all, certainly it will be significantly below average mid month, I don't believe a westerly regime will dominate the second half, amplification of the jet will allow north westerly even northerly incursions from time to time.

[SteveB]

2.8c to the 9th, -2.1c

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[kold weather]

Doubt the final CET will be much above average if above at all, certainly it will be significantly below average mid month, I don't believe a westerly regime will dominate the second half, amplification of the jet will allow north westerly even northerly incursions from time to time.

The one thing that is agreed upon by the models is quite impressive strengthening of the Azores ridiging, this therefore will dominate our weather whether we like it or not. Northerlies are possible in that flow but they will be topplers therefore aren't really going to help unless they hold for longer then 24hrs.

That being said the GFS is very likely overdoing things to a great degree...though IF the GFS 06z did come off then above average would probably be the result, as amazing as it sounds at this stage in the game...however I have few doubts its overdoing everything.

Still warming is going to happen, the degree of which however is not agreed upon. I'm still feeling quite happy with 5.5C for now however.

[Stu_London]

GFS 12z suggests 3.9C by the 17th

9C needed thereafter to hit 6C

9.5C to get us above average

A big call that it would be that mild for the full two weeks given the overall background, but not an impossibility

[kold weather]

12z GFS would probably do the job on this run, ECM would be a close run thing but also could do it as well as mins would hold temps up well....the 12z GFS is very similar to 2005 as well for that matter

I think anything below 5.5C is looking on very dodgy ground right now IMO, I'm seeing signals for a big warm up, 50-50 as to whether it can get above average but I think its an option we are looking at...

[cooling climate]

Could someone post the CET values for December, January and February. I have looked back

through the different threads but these CET months no longer seem to be there.

Thanks in advance.

[SteveB]

Could someone post the CET values for December, January and February. I have looked back

through the different threads but these CET months no longer seem to be there.

Thanks in advance.

http://hadobs.metoff..._info_mean.html

http://hadobs.metoff...o_mean2009.html

I am not sure whether this is what you are looking for, but I hope it helps.

Edited March 11, 2010 by SteveB

[Stu_London]

GFS 0z would probably deliver sub 6C although it is very much on the cooler side of the ensembles.

A reminder that while a significant warm up from where we are is very much on the cards, some of the really mild stuff of the last few runs is in FI