3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 11

[Ben_Cambs]

We have the same symbols on the Poole chart here on the central south coast, difference is Ive seen this gfs promise a thousand times before and time has taught me to take it all with a pinch of salt. Veru unlikely imo but I would love to be proved wrong.

I understand your caution greatly, we have seen this scenario many times this winter but now we have quite decent agreement for next week from all models, nothing springlike until at least Mid March IMO

Edit: Some of the models at T+144:

ECM: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

UKMO: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021

GEM: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

NOGAPS: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

GEFS ensembles mean: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=144&code=0&mode=0&runpara=0

GFS: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0

JMA (yesterday): http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=168&mode=1

All in all, some form of agreement from these models

Edited February 27, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Ben_Cambs]

This is my very first blog entry, feel free to read and comment: http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/241/entry-3990-will-winter-end/

[SnowAngel]

Cant have lying snow in march 1947 saw temps in the south of england of -21 with 40cm of snow in Birmingham.

Met office go along with the idea of major blocking and below average temps.

And April isn't called the cruel month for nothing. I remember walking around in a tshirt in an April heatwave then a couple of days later battling in a blizzard.

One memorable day, it was so warm and sunny one morning that some pals organised an impromptu barbeque in the afternoon. By the time we all turned up at their house, the first flakes of snow began to fall. An hour later it was a foot thick. We still carried on with the barby !

[Bolton67]

Yes very good, you will be able to keep your tan topped up

All but faded now

Today when the sun came out it fell very pleasant. i was at my lads football training and had to take my jacket off.

Sign of thing to come i hope!!!

[Snowangel-MK]

This is my very first blog entry, feel free to read and comment: http://forum.netweat...ill-winter-end/

Well done, I found that very clear and informative, you should get a job on the BBC

So are we looking to as soon as Thursday now for the next potential snowfall, not Friday ? What has happend to bring this possibility forward 24hrs ?

Please keep blogging and keeping us updated on this regional thread which I guess may last for a little bit longer now !

[Ben_Cambs]

Well done, I found that very clear and informative, you should get a job on the BBC

So are we looking to as soon as Thursday now for the next potential snowfall, not Friday ? What has happend to bring this possibility forward 24hrs ?

Please keep blogging and keeping us updated on this regional thread which I guess may last for a little bit longer now !

Thanks

I would say the potential is next Friday/Saturday, but my blog covers the whole of the UK, I personally think the snow risk will increase from Thursday in the North, and this risk will transfer southwards during Thursday evening into Friday and possibly even Saturday. A little too far out to know for sure though!

Whatever happens, its certainly going to get much colder by towards the end of next week. Time will tell.

An awful day outside, windy, light-moderate rain, Temperature 4C....

[fatyido]

The BBC do make me laugh the way they hype up the weather these days.

For a few days now they have been going on about a winter storm, with mega rain and gale force winds.

Well either it hasnt reached me yet, or they have over hyped it.

Its no more than a traditional 'wet and windy day'. Storms? do me a favour...

[Hammer]

The BBC do make me laugh the way they hype up the weather these days.

For a few days now they have been going on about a winter storm, with mega rain and gale force winds.

Well either it hasnt reached me yet, or they have over hyped it.

Its no more than a traditional 'wet and windy day'. Storms? do me a favour...

3 people dead, nearly a million without power across Portugal, Spain and France. Gusts over 90mph.

If you listened to BBC they said we needed to keep an eye on it and we did.

Dangerous storm, we dodged the worst of. Thankfully, unless you wanted people hurt.

[80sWeather]

rain here is turning sleety, anybody else confirm sleet or is it my imagination lol

[jennyjane]

Countryfile weather forecast confirmed what Snowman said, snow across us on Friday.

Currently calm here, I am releived as Southernman is working outside this afternoon and I was worried about him working in a storm.

[fatyido]

3 people dead, nearly a million without power across Portugal, Spain and France. Gusts over 90mph.

If you listened to BBC they said we needed to keep an eye on it and we did.

Dangerous storm, we dodged the worst of. Thankfully, unless you wanted people hurt.

What sort of stupid statement was that ? Of course I dont want people hurt - are you for real.?

I made no reference to world weather at all, just the fact that the BBC forecast a winter storm hitting the British Isles during Sat. night and Sunday. My comment was that it was another over reaction as it is just a plain old 'wet and windy' day. And yes thankfully, it was no more than that.

[Hammer]

What sort of stupid statement was that ? Of course I dont want people hurt - are you for real.?

I made no reference to world weather at all, just the fact that the BBC forecast a winter storm hitting the British Isles during Sat. night and Sunday. My comment was that it was another over reaction as it is just a plain old 'wet and windy' day. And yes thankfully, it was no more than that.

The BBC at all times I saw forecast, said, "please stay tuned and up to date on this storm and its track", and that "it is a dangerous storm that could impact us". Good advice and not an overeaction. Thankfully I and others heeded the adivice of tracking the storm.

Yet somehow, you seem to think it correct to criticise them for being concerned at the possibility.

[John London]

Our wind almost went as high as "Gentle Breeze" a few minutes ago.

[BlueHedgehog074]

@fatyido: To be honest, even if the storm did not turn out to be as bad as the BBC said for South of England (I ended up with pieces of light rain and some wind), I think the BBC still made the wise choice to predict the worse outcome and that it would be rather stormy, just in case it did actually happen. And it would have also given people the chance to prepare.

[John London]

I feel it was quite obvious what fatyido was trying to say, so I don't think there was any need for the personal attack on him. Some people do like to hide behind their computer screens and throw insults.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Sorry, I think that was little harsh of me and I really wish I left it now.

I suppose the storm was still exaggerated a little, and that it's not been the only time a storm has turned out to be not quite as bad as expected.

[John London]

Sorry, I think that was little harsh of me and I really wish I left it now.

I suppose the storm was still exaggerated a little, and that it's not been the only time a storm has turned out to be not quite as bad as expected.

Your reply was perfect, it wasn't your post I was talking about.

[Hammer]

I feel it was quite obvious what fatyido was trying to say, so I don't think there was any need for the personal attack on him. Some people do like to hide behind their computer screens and throw insults.

No insult from me. If you read my post it states, the BBC correctly advised to watch the storm, fatyido however suggested they overhyped, with the beauty of hindsight. I am entitled to challenge that view. Not least as more than 5 people have died as a result of storm. A storm that could have hit us.

As for throwing insults, not me. I stand up for what I believe, respect posters who follow the same hobby as me on here and will quite happily annoy those intent on wind ups and posting nonsence on here because they think they are funny.

I would hope fatyido did not see it as an insult, if he did, perhaps he may need to consider the BBC were merely trying to warn people to be prepared.

Nothing wrong with that.

[Ben_Cambs]

Well here's my more in depth take in what might happen next week:

The GFS 06z OP run is wrong and should be ignored because of a very technical reason, and that reason is because there should be an upper high around Iceland towards the end of the high resolution run, and it isn't and that run is messed up because of it.

GFS is acting strange recently, yesterday the 00z had us HP dominated then the next run had LP, bitter Easterlies and Blizzards! The GFS is the model to ignore at the moment. If you can remember in Mid Jan when the models all showed the Bitter Easterlies and then gradually dropped the idea, and is unlikely to happen this time IMO because it is a different setup. GFS 12z is going to be different than the 06z, but how different I dont know. Due to the forecasted strength of the block, the energy of the sinking LP etc, thats why I think some form of Easterly towards the end of next week is likely. Though it wont last more than 2 days at maximum, it is possible we may some heavy snowfalls next week.

Interesting aswell the NAEFS ensembles for London:

A few members on there go below -10C (Uppers) for next week, very interesting model watching over the next few days. Credit for helping me understand about Blocking goes to Bluearmy, who is very good with models and a lot better than me!

[SnowAngel]

The netweather local forecast has taken all the snow predictions off my area's forecast :) :wallbash: :wallbash:

[fatyido]

No insult from me. If you read my post it states, the BBC correctly advised to watch the storm, fatyido however suggested they overhyped, with the beauty of hindsight. I am entitled to challenge that view. Not least as more than 5 people have died as a result of storm. A storm that could have hit us.

As for throwing insults, not me. I stand up for what I believe, respect posters who follow the same hobby as me on here and will quite happily annoy those intent on wind ups and posting nonsence on here because they think they are funny.

I would hope fatyido did not see it as an insult, if he did, perhaps he may need to consider the BBC were merely trying to warn people to be prepared.

Nothing wrong with that.

Whatever. I think people agree with me that it was hyped alittle. It was wet and windy. And yes there many flood warnings including my area, not just caused by todays rain as it was steady rather than heavy. This is a forum which means everyone has a view. Mine was shared by a few. You seem intent on petty arguing. Im not posting anymore on this subject as its quite childish, but I expect you will want the last word and be right. So feel free...

[shotski]

Whatever. I think people agree with me that it was hyped alittle. It was wet and windy. And yes there many flood warnings including my area, not just caused by todays rain as it was steady rather than heavy. This is a forum which means everyone has a view. Mine was shared by a few. You seem intent on petty arguing. Im not posting anymore on this subject as its quite childish, but I expect you will want the last word and be right. So feel free...

Now now

Edit : latest ECM run looks good for cold

Edited February 28, 2010 by shotski

[John London]

Very quiet on this forum tonight so I thought I would give my own personal view on the winter of 2009/10.

For my area the model output discussion thread promised much, but in reality delivered very little. We had a few centimetres of snow for a couple of days, and some quite chilly weather. Other areas of the UK might have had a winter to remember but we didn't. The one saving grace is I live 50 yards from the beach so the late spring and summer are a delight.

[Bolton67]

The one saving grace is I live 50 yards from the beach so the late spring and summer are a delight.

Lucky you john!!

my in-laws have a caravan about 40 yards from the beach @ chapel st Leonard's near skegness.

Nothing better than reading the News of the world on a sunny, Sunday -spring morning knowing the beach is only 40 yards away.

Will be taking a trip up there soon ( 1st of march the caravan park re-opens) just hope spring will come smashing in.

[John London]

Lucky you john!!

my in-laws have a caravan about 40 yards from the beach @ chapel st Leonard's near skegness.

Nothing better than reading the News of the world on a sunny, Sunday -spring morning knowing the beach is only 40 yards away.

Will be taking a trip up there soon ( 1st of march the caravan park re-opens) just hope spring will come smashing in.

Woke up to an absolutely glorious morning, beautiful blue skies an unbroken sunshine. This is much more like it.