3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 11

[grab my graupel]

Please continue

[Thundery wintry showers]

Someone asked a question regarding what the easterlies shown by ECMWF and GFS would bring.

I think the ECM easterly would bring sunny intervals and a wintry mix of showers initially (T+192, T+216), with accumulations of snow likely in places overnight and daytime thawing in maxima of 3-5C, but it would then turn dull and dry at T+240 with warmer upper air moving up from the SE.

The GFS evolution (both 12Z and 18Z) has a moderately cold northerly followed by very cold uppers undercutting a sinking high pressure cell from the NE. This would mean sunshine and showers, the showers falling as a wintry mix during the northerly, but then falling and lying snow would be highly probable from the following NE'ly on the southern flank of the high. East Anglia, Kent and Sussex would be most favoured to see substantial accumulations that would have a good chance of surviving the daytime sunshine given maxima of just 2 or 3C.

[mackerel sky]

I have to say irrespective that I don't think I can stand any more dampness, wintery or not.

My 2-3 inches is clinging on for dear life in parts, and this evenings dusting has now gone. I can't stomach a week of rain. I want to now sniff the smells of spring.

We've had some decent snow round here over the past week, but its not of the fun type. Thursday/Friday was more along those lines, but its the case that snow does lie on existing snow, but not on wet roads, so you find sheltered spots with 5-6 inches, next to nothing. Some people who bother to clear drives have impressed somewhat since Thursday, because all that promotes is more snow settling on top. Sunday's snow settled on the existing bits, as did Monday's - Monday's more widely though until noon.

The prospect of dull wet weather as a replacement does not warm my heart. 15C and sunny weather would.

As for a progged easterly/NE flow... I don't see a particularly cold source to tap into off the continent. Not sure how with that, combined with SSTs being at their lowest would generate much convection for the far SE corner - though dewpoints would be low. If high pressure settles in, for the south it would be -2C by night and +7C by day. I'd take the sunlight definately.

As we get into March, and there is little sign of anything to tap into to the east, only northerlies will do. But at least they will be interdispersed with sunny spells. I haven't seen anything to imply a major plunge of cold air into the continent other that bits and pieces of the typical weather we have been experiencing over the past week, i.e. 850s of -5. Yes they can generate some surface cold if stuck there long enough, but its March on monday.

Edit: good northerly at +180 hrs on the 18z GFS. That would be cold - struggle for 2-3C by day. Then it just goes silly. But to reiterate, there isn't much point looking east as we head into springtime - as much as looking east involves Julie Reinger's forecasts. Good old Jim Bacon - old school.

Edited February 24, 2010 by mackerel sky

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think all the excitement over possible easterlies comes via easterlies sourced from high latitudes- you could call it easterlies with a "northerly" source. We had a lot of those between 17 December and 9 January. Those can still be very cold in March and, as I can vouch for via experiences in Tyne and Wear, still bring significant convection over the North Sea.

However, an easterly sourced from the continent will usually be dull and dry, cold by day and average by night.

Regarding the question "how long does it have to be snowy for before you start longing for a pattern change", this winter has taught me that if it's bright and snowy, the answer is "at least a month" (certainly there was no sign of me getting bored of the 17th Dec-9th Jan spell), but if it's dull and snowy, it's about a week, and if it's dull and sleety, rather less than that. Some sunshine would be nice- we did have a couple of reasonably sunny days last Friday and more especially Saturday in Norwich, but that's been about it over the last week and a half.

Things are looking up from that perspective into next week, but we do have that rather dangerous looking low to watch out for on Sunday.

[Ben_Cambs]

Luckily temperatures didnt reach double figures here today. I dont think next week anything Springlike will occur ( when I mean springlike I mean widely 13-15C or that sort of range). Probably turning cooler after Sunday, I should think next week will have below average temps for March, widely 5-7C by day and down to -2C or so at night. Like most on here I want a dry 'n' sunny week next week, although most likely single figure maxima's

Edited February 24, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Bolton67]

That Iberian low looks some nasty stuff.

Sunday is it due to arrive? looks like a few tiles from the roof could be missing for some.

Edited February 24, 2010 by Lancs_Northants

[Jason T]

That Iberian low looks some nasty stuff.

Sunday is it due to arrive? looks like a few tiles from the roof could be missing for some.

I dont think anyone is sure at the moment the bulk of it is in france and touching south uk, But it is a beast and packing a severe punch. I know SNOWMAN and i think TWS is watching it carefully.

[Jason T]

This was posted in thr models thread Defo something to keep a close eye on.

#280 Ian Fergusson

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Posted 13 minutes ago

grab my graupel, on 24 February 2010 - 19:06 , said:

Indeed, Although I'm fond of a bit of extreme weather, I certainly wouldn't welcome a chart like that one. It's a very nasty looking system with some rather tight looking

isobars.

IAN FERGUSON SAID...

Clearly the finer details of track disparity remain an issue for now, but there's sufficient concern (based on collective evidence, not solely UKMO-GM runs, which look ominous enough) that the MO has now advised F&CO on severe weather potential for various parts of NW Europe (NW Iberia - and of course, Madeira - obviously in the crosshairs but they're not alone). This is all obviously irrespective of the eventual UK outcome.

Weather Blog: www.bbc.co.uk/ianfergusson

Edited February 24, 2010 by silver line

[Ben_Cambs]

I would laugh if this happened! http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Snowangel-MK]

I would laugh if this happened! http://news.bbc.co.u.../forecast/10209

Wow, Snowman !

How likely is that for Sunday ?

[Ben_Cambs]

Wow, Snowman !

How likely is that for Sunday ?

Not likely with the current synoptics in the models! There is a small chance of this happening (10%) but colder uppers will filter down when the Deep LP begins to clear off and I wouldnt be suprised if some back edge snow occured. Sunday looks like a dreadful day, although Im sure the Beeb must have some reasoning in putting white in their graphics. This can all change of course, slightly further south and we have a increased chance of it being a little more wintry than currently being progged. GFS 18z coming out now and I will update the thread on what it says for Sunday!

[Timmytour]

I would laugh if this happened! http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

Snowman....looks like someone's already having a laugh! That snow has surely been put there for a joke and someone's drawn it in the shape of a man with an extremely large...well see for yourself!

[Ben_Cambs]

Sunday looks like a horrible day, quite cold and wet, Colder Uppers behind the low so possible back edge snow it looks like to me. (According to GFS 18z)

[saint]

Sunday looks like a horrible day, quite cold and wet, Colder Uppers behind the low so possible back edge snow it looks like to me. (According to GFS 18z)

If this low does get near us, what kinds of wind speed and rain amounts are we looking at Snowman?

[Ben_Cambs]

If this low does get near us, what kinds of wind speed and rain amounts are we looking at Snowman?

The worst of the weather will miss us, though probably 40mph gusts in the South of the region, gusting to 30mph in the North, maybe up to 45mph in the South East of the region, although Essex doesnt count as being part of EA.

[Snowangel-MK]

Snowman....looks like someone's already having a laugh! That snow has surely been put there for a joke and someone's drawn it in the shape of a man with an extremely large...well see for yourself!

I hadn't even noticed that someone's Sunday could be very exciting then

[Thundery wintry showers]

Mr_Data raised a good point regarding the relative safety/insurance costs of a severe wind storm relative to a snow or convective/thunder event in the model thread. Essentially, upon reflection, it would require a much larger severity and persistence of snow or convective event (such as the bigger convective storms they get in Tornado Alley) to rival the sort of spiralling costs and diminishing returns on excitement level that a severe wind storm with >70mph winds brings.

The stronger winds look like missing us (for now at least) and hitting central and northern France- something of a concern for our French cousins, could be a very destructive storm indeed if it doesn't downgrade over the next couple of days.

[SnowAngel]

Snowman....looks like someone's already having a laugh! That snow has surely been put there for a joke and someone's drawn it in the shape of a man with an extremely large...well see for yourself!

They have taken all that lovely snow of the chart now :)

[Ben_Cambs]

Sunday still looks like a horrible day, windy, very wet and cold. Still the chance of backedge snow, especially in the west of the region on Sunday night, as the 528 DAM line quickly moves south.

T+96: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=96&carte=2000

T+120: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=120&carte=2000

Next week still way up in the air, my prediction is a cold and sunny week, as HP builds over us.

[BucksSnow]

met office say heavy snow high wycombe,amersham sunday night

[Bolton67]

met office say heavy snow high wycombe,amersham sunday night

Where does it say that on the MetO site.

No Advisories have been issued for the entire UK for Sunday (Yet).

Edited February 25, 2010 by Lancs_Northants

[Snowangel-MK]

Sunday still looks like a horrible day, windy, very wet and cold. Still the chance of backedge snow, especially in the west of the region on Sunday night, as the 528 DAM line quickly moves south.

T+96: http://www.meteociel...h=96&carte=2000

T+120: http://www.meteociel...=120&carte=2000

Next week still way up in the air, my prediction is a cold and sunny week, as HP builds over us.

Thanks for the info. Snowman, so not quite so dramatic on Sunday then ?

I will take cold and sunny for next week, it's got to be better than less cold and wet !

Will look forward to your updates

[Bolton67]

Got a feeling these Regional threads could be closing soon.

We have all had are ups and downs this Winter with no snow for some and bucket loads for others.

So, what have been your ups and downs!

Ups.

December 18th snow event - first heavy snow of the winter.

Investing in Net weather Radar

Christmas Shopping (3 days before xmas) in a heavy snow shower- felt very festive

Having a laugh on this site after reading someones rant after the snow missed their areas

Week in Tenerife

Downs.

Northants not really tapping into any real heavy precip, just moderate-Light stuff.

When we did get some heavy precip (Green & Yellow echoes ) Nothing fell from the sky think i t was Jimben the other Northants poster who was watching the Radar at the same time who was also astonished to add insult to injury a Gritter went up my street at the same time.

The Bitter Easterlies shown in The Models that never materialised and always downgraded. ( could have been good for our region.

Jan 5th event. i remember the Gfs 06z showing 30 cm for the east mids only for the 12z downgrading and moving it into wales and the south.

The Gas bill when it arrives.

Edited February 25, 2010 by Lancs_Northants

[shotski]

Winter is far but over, High pressure builds over the UK next week pulling in some cold eastily winds with cold frosty nights.

Look at the 850 temp below, if the high was 200 miles north and east we would have big freeze part 3 on our hands

It looks like a pre christmas chart to me.

[Ben_Cambs]

Winter is far but over, High pressure builds over the UK next week pulling in some cold eastily winds with cold frosty nights.

Look at the 850 temp below, if the high was 200 miles north and east we would have big freeze part 3 on our hands

It looks like a pre christmas chart to me.

Yeah it looks like next week will depend on where the HP is positioned, we could potentially have either cold and sunny days followed by v. cold and frosty nights or the slight chance of a Bitter Easterly with a lot of snow, we will need the HP further north as you mentioned.

GFS 18z has the high a bit further west allowing a NE flow to develop by mid next week

And also, I would bag this chart right now http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/180_30.gif

Edited February 25, 2010 by Snowman0697