Atlantic Invest Thread 2010

[AderynCoch]

95L now up 80%. Almost there.

The ghost of Julia has also made a reappearance on the NHC's tropical activity map, but is pegged back at 10%. It hasn't been assigned a new invest designation.

[Iceberg]

Been busy today, but just back in time to see the first pass of recon....

SFMR winds of upto 40kts have been recorded in the NE and a closed circulation has been recorded with N, NE, E, SE, S, SW, W and NW winds. around a 1008mb centre.

This probably came in just out of time to get a 4.00pm advisory started on it, however the next advisory should see this updated to TS Matthew.

I should say the globals are having a torrid time deciding what to do with this and how to develop it, atm it's probably too small for them to fully digest.

[dallas]

I think there is a fair chance this (95L) could end up in the GOM now that the trade winds have started to drop off

[johnholmes]

from NOAA

DOWN SOUTH...THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO

ADVERTISE A SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN /POSSIBLY

INVEST 95L/ TO THE NORTH ACROSS EITHER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OR

WESTERN CUBA BY MID NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS BY FAR THE

STRONGEST/LARGEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WAS DISCOUNTED.

CONSIDERING THE TRENDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/EAST...IT APPEARS THAT

THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE HEADED NORTH TO NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST

GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST GULF

COAST/FLORIDA IN 7-10 DAYS. THE POINTS AGREED UPON WITH NHC KEPT

GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE MORNING ISSUANCE.

[CardiffStorm]

95L is now a Tropical Depression...NHC to issue advisories momenterily.

From NHC:

"DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL ADVISORY AT 2 PM EDT TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS"

Edited September 23, 2010 by jamo_s

[CardiffStorm]

Watches and warnings in force:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

[summer blizzard]

We may have another Carribean system on our hands in a few days, the stalling Tropical Storm Lisa has allowed a tropical wave to slip underneath, no really turning at the moment however it is one to watch in 3-5 days.

[Katherine]

One of my Twitter people has said 'multiple tropical threats' in the next fortnight....

[Cookie]

One of my Twitter people has said 'multiple tropical threats' in the next fortnight....

what's their evidence?

[Katherine]

what's their evidence?

Foolishly, I forgot to ask them to elaborate. Speculation already about Nicole...

[Cookie]

Foolishly, I forgot to ask them to elaborate. Speculation already about Nicole...

yeah their is indeed.

[Cookie]

We now have 96L

[dallas]

Almost there 80%, looks to be Florida bound, how strong will depend on how quick it moves I think, the sst's are pretty much up there so slow movement would not be good for Florida

[Cookie]

96L became Nicole

We now have 97L

[Iceberg]

Yep 97L is a big bugger of a mess atm, Globals arn't too keen in the shorter timeframe, ECM develops a hurricane from it between 168 and 240 though.

However due to it's size and envelope it's not going to be named or followed anytime soon.

[Cookie]

97L

Edited September 30, 2010 by cookie

[Somerset Squall]

97L is slowly organising. The invest consisted of two large tropical waves which seem to be merging and developing a broad area of low pressure. Convection is becoming more concentrated about this developing low, and I can't see why this one wouldn't become a tropical depression later this weekend or early next week. As Iceberg says however, development is likely to be slow due to the sprawling nature of 97L.

[Cookie]

its gone a bit quite in here lately, down to 10%

very disorganized

[joggs]

its gone a bit quite in here lately, down to 10%

very disorganized

its gone a bit quite in here lately, down to 10%

very disorganized

Sorry Cookie ignore last post. Just one thing! You been in this field n all, i give my predictions on the amount of t storms n hurr this season, are you suprised with how its all going? and or if not what do you think is the cause of in my oppinion a quieter season than a few experts predicted?

[Cookie]

Sorry Cookie ignore last post. Just one thing! You been in this field n all, i give my predictions on the amount of t storms n hurr this season, are you suprised with how its all going? and or if not what do you think is the cause of in my oppinion a quieter season than a few experts predicted?

not surprised at all,

I don't think its been a quite one at all we've had 9 storms in September and we also beat the ACE for the entire year of 2009 in September alone.

most hurricanes this year have been from the cape Verde and have stayed away from land mostly.

we still have 2 weeks left of the season and still plenty of time for thier to be a few more named hurricanes!!

[joggs]

not surprised at all,

I don't think its been a quite one at all we've had 9 storms in September and we also beat the ACE for the entire year of 2009 in September alone.

most hurricanes this year have been from the cape Verde and have stayed away from land mostly.

we still have 2 weeks left of the season and still plenty of time for thier to be a few more named hurricanes!!

Cheers Cookie, im learning all the time and im commited to the cause.

[Cookie]

Cheers Cookie, im learning all the time and im commited to the cause.

no bother mate we all starting learning from somewhere.

[summer blizzard]

not surprised at all,

I don't think its been a quite one at all we've had 9 storms in September and we also beat the ACE for the entire year of 2009 in September alone.

most hurricanes this year have been from the cape Verde and have stayed away from land mostly.

we still have 2 weeks left of the season and still plenty of time for thier to be a few more named hurricanes!!

Not only are we above average for the season in terms of ACE total, but September had the joint highest number of named storms on record.

[Gray-Wolf]

I've been well surprised with the mid Aug/Sept period, certainly made up for lost time didn't it?

It's a good job synoptics/Steering currents kept them out to sea really, a straighter East West passage into the Caribbean/Gulf and we'd have had a lot of problems I think?

[Cookie]

I've been well surprised with the mid Aug/Sept period, certainly made up for lost time didn't it?

It's a good job synoptics/Steering currents kept them out to sea really, a straighter East West passage into the Caribbean/Gulf and we'd have had a lot of problems I think?

yup totally agree