Atlantic Invest Thread 2010

[Somerset Squall]

95L became TS Danielle.

96L has formed just off the coast of Africa, and NHC give 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 48hrs. Waters are warm, but the system may feel negative influences (shear) from Danielle to the west. Nevertheless, the system is already showing signs of organisation and therefore could become a TD in the next day or so.

[Paranoid]

The invest behind Danielle is now up to 60%.

[AderynCoch]

...and 70%.

[Paranoid]

Now up to 90%. If it continues at this rate we should have TD7 in then next few hours.

Edits done to correct my appauling typing. =)

Edited August 24, 2010 by Paranoid

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/wv-l.jpg

We have convection over the centre and a strong circlation, therefore i would say that we have TD7. This system could present a threat to the north western Windward Islands and eastern US down the line as it is likely to stay further south and west than Danniele.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg

Both storms are over warm waters.

Edited August 24, 2010 by summer blizzard

[Iceberg]

Outflow is increasing to the West, particularly the NW and the drier air looks like it has been digested now. with a bit of Diurnal effect Danielle will come back to it's former glory.

[Iceberg]

Scrub the above post it's junk in the wrong thread. !

[Cookie]

[Iceberg]

Bit quiet in here considering.

96L looks the best I've seen it atm, There is now a floater over it and with daylight sat loops a circulation is evident with the beginings of a CDO, this has a very good chance 80% or so of being named TD 7 cat approx 3.30pm today.

96L looks set to FISH and re-curve in a similar manner to Danielle, however it posses more of a threat to Bermuda, intensity wise it looks to have a high possibility of Hurricane status.

Much Longer range and it again looks set to be in our neck of the woods come the 5-9th of September.

GFS also picks up on another feature Tropical storm development following hot off the heels of 96L.

This would be TD 8 and would form a very conveyor like spell of storms Fishing with a mid atlantic re-curve.

[Gray-Wolf]

Bit quiet in here considering.

That's 'Fish spinners' for you Ice! unless there's a chance for U.S. landfall most folk don't seem to bother.

I'd agree we seem to have a busy period on the way and this may well bring us some nice temps if the H.P. hold off the cores and leave us basking in the S/SW draw!

[Paranoid]

96L is now up to near 100% so unless something unexpected happens we should have TD8 by the 4pm advisory.

[Iceberg]

CIM have now updated their Dvorak analysis of 96L to be TD7, based on this advisories will commence at the next update.

Dvorak is T2.0 BTW

[Iceberg]

96L has been turned into TD7 now, new thread opened.

[Gray-Wolf]

Maybe another 2 threads in the offing? A large disturbance has slipped into the Atlantic today and a very stormy mass in Africa to it's rear?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg

[Paranoid]

The models show the first set of cloudiness eventually becoming a TS or minimal hurricane but not much more, looks like Earl is interfering with development. Nothing on the models regarding the second lot of storms thus far however.

[Katherine]

Invest 97L forms in eastern Atlantic. Anticipated to become Fiona during the weekend.

Click Here.

[Jayces]

I did a quick Google search but couldn't find it so was wondering if anyone here knew what the highest number of named storms active at the same time was?

Looking at the train of weather coming from Africa at the moment we could have 4 or even 5 potentially, is that unusual?

[Iceberg]

IT is unusual but does happen, I can certainly remember 4 names storms in the Atlantic at one time a few years ago.

If it is going to happen then end of August, begining of Sept is really the prime time.

Not sure about 5 though.

[Cookie]

97L

[Katherine]

Good grief - in the time it's taken for me to have a bath, the NHC have raised the TD formation potential of 97L from a Yellow Alert to a Red Alert probability of 60%!!!!!

SHEESH ALMIGHTY!!!! Can we have a steroid/urine test for the tropics?

Edited August 27, 2010 by Katherine

[ZONE 51]

Looking like a record season rolling out now, some time to go yet what is much a concern, time for the big ones to form, i think the upper strong west winds are being cut of now by the developing la-nina , enabling ts to form and circulate for longer and grow into hurricanes. correct me if im wrong.

[Iceberg]

TD 8/Fiona might form tonight if it can get the circulation fully closed, most models place it on a similar track to Earl, but 5 degrees or so further south, which might well mean landfall in the Caribbean or Carolina region.

However I've not seen any very strong forecasts with Fiona likely to make a Cat 1 or 2 at best in the forseeable future, it looks like it will be effected by interaction with Earl and some shear to the south and west.

[Iceberg]

97L is doing well still, as is the future 98L/Gaston behind it in Africa still.

Dvorak for 97L is 1.5 when it gets to 2.0 it will probably be declared as a TD.

[Paranoid]

97L now up to 70%. We could see more development of it today now that it is daylight in that area.

[Gray-Wolf]

And another large disturbance now about to drop into the atlantic! Could we see 4 'canes on the prowl in the basin all at one time? What will that mean for the Forecast thread?