Atlantic Invest Thread 2010

[Cookie]

Good grief - in the time it's taken for me to have a bath, the NHC have raised the TD formation potential of 97L from a Yellow Alert to a Red Alert probability of 60%!!!!! :blink:

SHEESH ALMIGHTY!!!! Can we have a steroid/urine test for the tropics?

Nothing really that unusall to be honest.

And another large disturbance now about to drop into the atlantic! Could we see 4 'canes on the prowl in the basin all at one time? What will that mean for the Forecast thread?

[summer blizzard]

97L now up to 70%. We could see more development of it today now that it is daylight in that area.

This one could get interesting, because it is almost certain to hit Haiti/Cuba given the steering currents this train is causing, even if it does recurve afterward.

[Iceberg]

97L or Fiona is also doing well this morning, upped to 80% from NHC and with Dvorak at T1.5 we only need a little squeeze to get this to T2.0 and get it followed as a tropical depression.

GFDL again makes her a hurricane, but tbh their is considerable disagreement, GFS has Fiona absorbed by Earl, HWRF doesn't develop her too much and her track is pulled into the same ridge weakness as Earl.

ECM as above last night had a slower storm, which was more developed.

So essentially too much speed and too little development and it risks becoming part of Earl and will be a fish.

If it slows down and develops then a possible land hit.

[Iceberg]

ECM sticking to it's guns and sending Fiona up the throat of NYC at 240Z (too far out for any certainty though)

[Gray-Wolf]

There seems to be a pattern emerging here.....

First Danielle,a fish spinner, then Earl (a little straighter and a little lower and maybe a glancing blow on the U.S. mainland) then Fiona, a full on hit on the U.S.?

[Iceberg]

Latest ECM sends Fiona BANG into Carolina........

[Iceberg]

Bad news with the Future Fiona....

It's looking quite good, which is a problem considering where it might be going.

Advisories should really start at 9.30-10am today Dvorak is T2.0 which supports a Tropical Depression, an LLCC is evident and the models show continual strengthening.

The path follows Earl's for awhile, then we split into two camps the first is the GFS supported Camp which quickly merges Fiona with Earl, the second is ECM which allows Earl to take the ridge, but Fiona misses it and continues westwards. ECM seems to be moving Fiona SW with each run and I tend to favour ECM in these scenario's.

ECM has shifted from a Carolina hit to a Direct Florida(Orlando) hit with a very powerful hurricane.

I think in the next couple of days we will get some model agreement and if its on the ECM side then it looks like the first major hurricane strike of the season.

[Iceberg]

Advisories have not commenced on Fiona this morning, rather surprising considering how she looks, but understandable they are rather busy atm and Fiona can wait until later today.

[Paranoid]

Fiona will probably take a bit more time to develop than Danielle and Earl did, i suspect the two previous storms have cooled the waters in the area slightly.

[Cookie]

Fiona will probably take a bit more time to develop than Danielle and Earl did, i suspect the two previous storms have cooled the waters in the area slightly.

I was just going to ask that question, thanks mate

[summer blizzard]

Soon to be Fiona at 80%, mainly because while there is a strong circulation there is not a massive amount of convection due to the fact that Danielle, Earl and 97L are all affecting each others outflow, which means that until Hurricane Earl makes its northward turn shear is likely to be a factor.

That is the track i expect, steering currents will ensure that it stays further south than Earl and makes its northward turn further west, meaning that Haiti/Cuba should be concerned, once it makes its first hit there, shallow hot water will ensure it hits Florida/Carolina as a major hurricane.

[Katherine]

A couple of people on Twitter have said Fiona is heading for the Gulf of Mexico??????????????

[Paranoid]

Most of the model runs have her heading up towards the east coast at the moment, although it may be worth keeping an eye on whether she crosses Florida and into the Gulf. Some of them have her being absorbed by Earl so there's quite a lot of division on there.

97L isn't looking brilliant at the moment so the arrival of Fiona may be delayed for a bit.

[Iceberg]

A couple of people on Twitter have said Fiona is heading for the Gulf of Mexico??????????????

Your twitter was totally right Katherine, ECM yesterday evening showed a shocking model run, where Fiona missed Florida, skirted Cuba and crashed into New Orleans as a major hurricane, see below.

Thankfully it's changed, but tbh pretty much anything could happen to Fiona, from being absorbed by Earl, to going into the GOM and being a real problem.

ATM Fiona looks awful though and is struggling to survive as even an invest.

[summer blizzard]

Upped to 90% with a clear circulation still present, though it barely warants TD status. It should be named either tommorow or wednesday once Earl makes his northward turn. My prediction still stands as far as i am concerned, though models do seem to be shifting south a bit meaning he could well make a hit in the Gulf Of Mexico and given his long track, he could be quite big.

Edited August 30, 2010 by summer blizzard

[Gray-Wolf]

N.Y. and then N.O.? Maybe the U.S. public will take note if they have two costly strikes in a year?

[peterf]

it's all gripping stuff this.the wife has just called me a sado lol.

[Rob]

looking at latest satellite i'd say it's looking pretty organised now, might well already be a tropical storm, NHC expecting to start issuing advisories shortly.

[Somerset Squall]

The winds have risen to 35kts now, so if there was an upgrade we'd likely see Fiona. However, convection still a little patchy at present, though you could argue this is normal for a disturbance in it's formative stages.

[Paranoid]

Some of the models are showing two storms forming in the western GOM and off the Cape Verde islands respectively. This is still off in FI so nothing may come of it, but the one in the GOM has appeared on the models over the last few days. Interesting the Cape Verde system seems to be moving north rather than west as the previous systems have.

[mrpsb]

98L is up and running on the NHC satellite imagery, I expect with Danielle, Fiona and especially Earl to worry about they've just not got round to tagging it yet,

Edited August 31, 2010 by mrpsb

[Cookie]

98L, less then 10%

[mrpsb]

Lol, got all excited then and they shot me down!

[Paranoid]

I think 98L may just take a long time to develop; a TS appears in that area sometime later this week on the models.

[Paranoid]

98L up to 80% now. NHC say a TD could form at any time.