Atlantic Invest Thread 2010

[summer blizzard]

Hurricane Hunter recon flight for today cancelled. It's gone back from 70% chance to 60% chance of development. Why would this be, given the conditions are right?

Lack of convection.

[Gray-Wolf]

It's only just 'sun up' out there though? shouldn't we wait until their 'T' time and see what the day instigates (in the way of Convection)?.

[Cookie]

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

Looks close to being TD3.

[Cookie]

A close up

[kold weather]

97L showing a classic sheared presentation. There is hints of a lower level circulation but the problem for it right now is the ULL is still impinging a certain amount of shear upon it still. The ULL has sped up recently looking at the WV imagery so that maybe a sign that shear reduces a little. Broad thoughts are similar still to yeswterday, but I'll make a proper update tomorrow morning at some point.

98L has been declared by the way, a broad Cyclonic Gyre very similar to a WPAC storm in its developmental period, but its not got a huge amount of time over water, probably 24-36hrs...

[Cookie]

97L

98L

[Iceberg]

Both 97L and 98L look better this morning.

97L is showing signs of up to down organisation, it's still being sheared, but outflow is improving and convection is steady(particularly when compared to yesterday).

The path looks to still be through southern Florida, back into the GOM and upto the Florida western boarder for another landfall. It's difficult to see this gaining Hurricane strength now, given the time and conditions but it might well make a TS over the next 48 hrs. Once into the GOM it really only has 24 hrs before the second landfall. I remember hurricanes crossing florida which really remain intack as it's a bit like going over a flat pancake.

98L is starting to get it's act together nicely but only has 24/36 hrs, however in the BOC it's possible for storms to spin up very quickly. Best guess would be another TS before it hits into Mexico again, conditions look ripe for development but time is very very limited.

[Cookie]

thanks for the update iceberg

98L

[Somerset Squall]

97L now a tropical depression or storm, advisories will be issued at 1500 UTC according to NHC:

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS INDICATE

THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS

BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.

ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE

INITIATED AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC TODAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY

INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE

BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

[Cookie]

Just waiting for official confirmation yes?

[Somerset Squall]

Just waiting for official confirmation yes?

Indeed, though it's pretty much dead cert- unclear whether it will be named Bonnie straight away or left as a tropical depression.We shall know shortly. This thing has certainly put on a rapid spurt of intensification!

AL, 03, 2010072212, , BEST, 0, 216N, 744W, 30, 1008, TD

98L looking pretty good in the BOC too, has been upped to 50% chance of TC formation in the next 48hrs. Though the LLC is broad, convection seems to be concentrating towards the proposed centre.

[Nick L]

Weather Channel saying it will definitely be either a Tropical Storm or Depression, to be announced at 11am my time I think they said. The local forecast for tomorrow is scattered storms and windy, so I should be able to get home without any problems.

[Iceberg]

Looks like TD3 going from the Navy pages.

[Paranoid]

Up to near 100% now, first time i've seen that on there.

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE THE DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST

BAHAMAS.

1. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS INDICATE

THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS

BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.

ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE

INITIATED AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC TODAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY

INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE

BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

[Cookie]

97L has become TD3

98L

Edited July 22, 2010 by cookie

[Cookie]

98L dissipated

99L the on land invest located over Mexico

[Katherine]

Twitter saying Invest 90L has formed from one of the tropical waves under surveillance. 20% chance of development in the next 48 hours.

[summer blizzard]

Twitter saying Invest 90L has formed from one of the tropical waves under surveillance. 20% chance of development in the next 48 hours.

The wave given 20% was the one at 35W, does not have a floater over it yet.

[kold weather]

Convective mass has been declared Invest 90L around 30W. Its a very complicated evolution suggested by the models. A Tropical Wave is just emerging from Africa and the models seem to attempt to merge the current convection that has steadily moved WSW over the past 36hrs and that has been helped by the ITCZ. The models finally merge the systems at 72hrs and develop the system from then onwards with a bit more purpose.

Till then the models forecast only slow motion of the convection westwards. 90L does have a weak circulation that has become more obvious with the Dmax occuring right now and weakening the convection outside of the ITCZ. Any development will be slow till 50W IMO but after that strengthening is certainly more possible. The models do at least hint at some shear possibly near 60W but much depends on how much latitude it gains till then.

Very early days but I'd say odds are fairly decent that this one threatens the US/Caribbean down the line, the upper high looks pretty strong and whilst there is probably going to be a weakness between say 50-65W that will help to lift out the system to some degree, the system starts from a very southerly position...Also I think this one has a decent shot at being a hurricane down the line.

[Cookie]

90L

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

Well, development certainly looks at least 48 hours away. For the moment, it has multiple centre syndrome which is resulting in speradic convection, also dry air in front of it will most likely mean that the centre relocates eastward, especially when it encounters some shear.

[Cookie]

90L

h

[summer blizzard]

90L seems to be merging as expected with the wave coming off Africa, and is a likely candidate for develpment down the road.

Personally i think our attention should be given to the Carribean, the wave the NHC says only has a 10% chance of development looks great wit an evident circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

[summer blizzard]

Neither wave looks anything special this morning, though the African wave has more curviture.