Atlantic Invest Thread 2010

[Cookie]

94L

Has been Deactivated

[Cookie]

95L we now just off the Florida coast

929

ABNT20 KNHC 022339

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL

ZONE...IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT

70 MILES SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO

MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A

TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Cookie]

95L

is up to 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 PM EDT SAT JUL 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES TO

PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO

MOVE GENERALLY WEST OR NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH OVER THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING

DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS

SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES

INLAND LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT

OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15

MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10

PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BERG

and dont think it will be long at all till we have 96L

[pyrotech]

Two areas of interest this morning.

Both have a 10% chance of becoming tropical storm in next 48 hours.

#1 is as we saw yesterday in the gulf to the west of Florida

#2 South of Cuba

#2 has a great potential over the next few days to develop.

Great start to the 2010 Season.

[Cookie]

we now have 96L

Edited July 4, 2010 by cookie

[Katherine]

Any hunches about 96L? Favourable conditions?

[Paranoid]

Last time i looked the models developed 96L into what looks like a Category 1/2 storm hitting Texas. Some of them also showed 95L getting up to moderate TS strength after looping around Florida, although that would involve it changing direction which seems very unlikely.

Edited July 4, 2010 by Paranoid

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

96L could develop, but it seems to have only a weak circulation at the moment.

95L has dry air to the north, i do not think it will develop.

[Rob]

I can easily see 96L developing this week, possibly at Cat 2/3 htting Texas/Mexico at the weekend?

[summer blizzard]

I can easily see 96L developing this week, possibly at Cat 2/3 htting Texas/Mexico at the weekend?

Are recon scheduled to investigate?

[Rob]

Are recon scheduled to investigate?

nothing planned, however they do oddly have flights planned for Invest 95L?

[Cookie]

nothing planned, however they do oddly have flights planned for Invest 95L?

might be due to the proximity to the oil?

[Paranoid]

96L upped to 20% now.

[Rob]

might be due to the proximity to the oil?

true i didnt't think about that, i fully expect a Recon flight to 96L by Wednesday, if not before, will be interesting to watch to see what happens here

[kold weather]

96L is exactly where Alex was when it developed, quite uncanny really!

SST's are a good deal lower now due to the upwelling from Alex which will mean less energy for 96L to work off. It also nearly isn't as organised as Alex was at this point in the W.Caribbean. Convection is decent but the system clearly isn't at the same stage as Alex was at this point. Central region of the system is currently on the western most convective mass in the Caribbean not far from Central America. It reminds me a lot of Alex when it was in the E.Caribbean, though there is a good deal more Voricity and spin then pre-Alex had in the E.Carribean. The dual convective look is simply due to higher divergence being further east, we could see the two regions compete for a center.

I'm not expecting it develop before it hits land but the general track will likely be very close to Alex but it'll probably be a bit further south given it probably won't be able to develop till its in the BoC. I'd be surprised if this one became a hurricane though you can't totally rule it out as conditions in the BoC look condusive for development IMO.

As for 95L, convection has held over the systems center for a good few hours now, so it may need close watching as it heads towards land in the next 24hrs, we could get a short lived Tropical Depression from this if the current convection can hold.

[Nick L]

Chances of tropical development for 96L have been upped to 30% now.

[kold weather]

Looking at the possible synoptic evolution there seems to be alot of uncertainty on whether 95L can develop enough of a low pressure system to create a weakness. If it does then my track ideas will almost certainly be too far south and the odds of a Texas system will increase quite markedly.

As I said before I think 95L could well become a TD, anything above that is probably a bit of an ask....as for 96L, no reason why this can't become Bonnie/Colin IMO. Whilst the Yucatan may well prevent any short term development beyond a weak system, after the Yucatan the W.Gulf I really don't see much that is going to stop this system developing to be honest, esp once the system can start to wrap itself up.

NHC has upped 96L to 30kts by the way based on a ship report of 27kts. The future of 96L and whether it becomes a threat to the US down the line depends much on 95L.

[kold weather]

A quick uon 95L is needed, looks to me like this could be a tropical depression very soon...Sat.imagery shows a small tight circulation has blown up convection over its center and just to the south of the center and is now rapidly wrapping into the system on the eastern side with banding becoming obvious.

No doubts in my mind this has rapidly fired into a tropical depression, looks to me like its about the same size as TS Marco was, so may have a very small system and if thats the case we could have Bonnie from this one...

[Cookie]

95L

if it quacks like a duck, looks like a duck, it probably is a duck! :lol:

96L

[Katherine]

95L looks as though it has an eye already!

[Katherine]

From Joe laminate floori on Twitter on 95L:

Smaller system in gulf spinning but I cant find any strong wind with it.. should go ashore over Louisiana tomorrow

EDIT: Joe laminate floori???? LMAO!!!

Edited July 4, 2010 by Katherine

[Cookie]

96L is up to 50 %

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN

CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT

APPEAR TO BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...NEARBY

SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE

BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST

FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT

OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10

TO 15 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS

SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER

GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER

THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

[Cookie]

4 Area's under watch tonight yes 4 areas!

[Katherine]

WHOA CRIKEY!!!!

Things are potentially going INSANE!!!!

Look at the attachment!

** faints **

[Nick L]

I'm going to Florida on Wednesday! Fantastic