Atlantic Invest Thread 2010

[Cookie]

Both 95 AND 96L

don't look as good this morning

[pyrotech]

Looking great for my 15 days in Cuba from the 13th of July. possibilities of seeing a tropical storm are increasing as it looks like a active season as forecast is coming to fruitition.

[Gray-Wolf]

And summat big is about to drop off Africa! I wonder how far out FI will become over the coming weeks as these fish spinners get their acts together?

I can see at least 2 'canes developing, from what we have in the Atlantic today, over the next couple of weeks and possibly more!!!

Was it 05' that had a couple of 'twin 'canes' with one ending up gobbling down the other?

[summer blizzard]

95L is all but gone.

96L has a well defined circulation but no precipitation over the centre, a good chance of becoming named once in the Gulf Of Mexico though.

The other two waves have been dropped, though i quite like the one above the Winward Islands, has a clear circulation. The one east of Florida is the reason 95L is dying, they are part of the same conective mass. I will post about them in the wae thread.

[Katherine]

And summat big is about to drop off Africa! I wonder how far out FI will become over the coming weeks as these fish spinners get their acts together?

What weather/science site do you use to check these African waves?

[summer blizzard]

Looks like the wave next to Florida could actually join with 96L which could be interesting.

The wave north of the Winward Islands is in a diffluent zone, good chance of this developing.

[Iceberg]

Have to admit the only realistic chance of a tropical storm IMO is 96L atm, Africa might throw something up in say 8-10 days time but it's a while off yet.

Nor am I overly convinced of anything currently in the GOM.

96L though looks like missing the Yucatan and staying over water, the circulation is pretty good and convection has started to appear near the circulation centre again as we hit a better part of the day.

Track looks much more US based than Alex, but it only has 72 hrs until landfall due to stronger steering currents. The shear over the GOM is set to relax only should only be moderate at most near Florida.

GFDL does make This into a 60kt storm, however HWRF and ECM do not.

Edited July 5, 2010 by Iceberg

[Katherine]

GFDL does make This into a 60kt storm, however HWRF and ECM do not.

What are the websites for GFDL, HWRF and ECM? What do the initials stand for in each case?

[Paranoid]

Hmm, that was unexpected. 95L has suddenly been upped to 60%. I'm somewhat sceptical of this as previously it was said it had a near zero chance of becoming a tropical cyclone, so this could be a mistake. I guess we shall have to wait and see.

. A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS MOVING ONSHORE

TERREBONNE PARISH NEAR CAILLOU BAY. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE

DATA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE COULD

OCCUR ACROSS TERREBONNE PARISH...ESPECIALLY IN TERREBONNE

BAY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES

ONSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM

BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM

WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AND PRODUCE LOCALLY

HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN

LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL

NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY

WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

Edited July 5, 2010 by Paranoid

[Cookie]

Rather odd what's been going on with 95L

[summer blizzard]

95L certainly looks good, though whether it has a closed circulation or not is another question.

96L has had a big convectional blowout, could be a Tropical Depression within 24 hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv-l.jpg

[Somerset Squall]

95L looks similar in presentation to last night, except it appears surface winds are stronger now. If it's to be upgraded, then it will have to happen tonight. Looks like a rapidly developing midget cyclone, if this was further from land it could have exploded.

[pyrotech]

What are the websites for GFDL, HWRF and ECM? What do the initials stand for in each case?

The models include GFDL which is the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GFS Global forecasting system, ECMwf European computer model - European centre for medium range weather forecasts.

HWRF The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model and CMC is the Canadian Meteorological Centre

All these are on the floodwarn site. Along with your last question about the African waves. They are found along the ITCZ .

For the models go to the hurricane tracking page.

Hope that helps you and enhances your enjoyment of this forum

Edited July 5, 2010 by pyrotech

[Gray-Wolf]

Ice looks to have a good take on 96L as it sails through the straights. I suppose a few days over the Gulf is gonna set things into motion.

Kat,Hi! I generally either use Eumetsat;

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/AIRMASS/CENTRALEUROPE/index.htm

or just use the NHC sat section, "Atlantic and Caribean section;

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

[kold weather]

Not too impressed with 96L right now, there has been broad mid level turning for a few days now but the convection has remained quite disorganised and there is little to suggest there is a LLC, though winds obs do suggest 30kts is about right. Presentation right is still suggestive of a sheared look with NW winds aloft of probably about 20kts still which is marginal for development.

There is decent convection but it is away from the region of great potenial right now which is slapbang in the Yucatan Channel, where high Upper level divergence and low level convergence is present and where there is the greatest Voricity but the system, the fact the system is a little t othe west probabl suggests conditions aren't perfect aloft, though they are good enough for slow development if it can sort itself out.

I think this has an ok chance of developing but not likely to become more then a TD/low end TS because it'll probably be on shore in the next 60hrs. Much depends on wether it can get the more decent conditions aloft a little further west.

Edited July 6, 2010 by kold weather

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv-l.jpg

96L still has a well defined circulation, and while convection has waned due to land interaction, it is all now centred over the centre, if convection holds up, this will be named Tropical Depression 2 once back over water.

[weatherobsuk]

96L getting a nice "boost" on its Western flanks at the moment from rapid convection firing up. As the system moves further North and back into the Gulf, nocturnal cooling will also start to fire up more flanking Storms aiding the progression of 96L into TD2.

[Cookie]

96L

[Cookie]

96L

not looking to great again tonight, time running out for this

[pyrotech]

An area to the East of Cuba 25 North 70 west approx looks like it has good convection, wind shear charts show low wind shear, convergence and upper divergence look fair and so possible slow development , one to watch maybe

Edited July 7, 2010 by pyrotech

[Cookie]

96L

A TCFA has been issued

Starting to get its act together and look better.

[kold weather]

96L doesn't look far off a Tropical Depression tonight. Center of Circulation is quite weak but I do think we have a closed low with it being on the NW side of the convection. Convection is warming as we head into Durinal Min but that is somewhat to be expected and the current pattern looks decent enough for development with a fairly decent presentation and still quite a potent MLC present.

Upper level weakness should take this system NW from now on towards S.Texas but this same feature will spread the moisture from 96L into Texas regardless of development. I think a weak system is still likely though whether it makes it to Bonnie is IMO probably 50-50 still, though there is still time on it side for sure.

[Cookie]

80%

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE

TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND

EVENING...AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED

NEAR THE CENTER. TWO NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY

CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION IN AND AROUND THE DISTURBANCE...AND

INFORMATION RECEIVED SO FAR SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY

BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER

DEVELOPMENT AND IF ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION CONTINUES...THEN

FORECAST ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY

MORNING...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE THAT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR

WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL REGIONS OF CENTRAL

AND LOWER TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH

CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY

WINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN

MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Katherine]

What happened to the vicious blob off Africa?

[pyrotech]

96L is now TD2 and should become Bonnie briefly before hitting land.

Katherine -

The Blob that left Africa will have become less intentense as it moved into the Atlantic, but will be a tropical wave that will have potential as it moves North and Westwards. These "BLOBS" are areas of convection that usually leave the west coast of Africa as thunderstorms. The area is marked on the ITZC as a tropical wave and it is an area that later has potential to reform into a tropical depression.