Atlantic Invest Thread 2010

[Somerset Squall]

Not until the system has more convection I wouldn't have thought. The LLC is well defined but is entirely exposed. Moderate shear and dry air appears to be slowing development. I think this one will become a tropical depression eventually however.

[Cookie]

93L

94L

Radar http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=amx&loop=yes

92L

got deactivated today

NHC_ATCF

invest_DEACTIVATE_al922010.ren

FSTDA

R

U

040

010

0000

201008081512

NONE

NOTIFY=ATRP

END

[Cookie]

93L

94L

[CardiffStorm]

NHC now giving a 30% chance of 94L becoming Tropical in the next 48 hours.

[Rob]

Recon due to investigate 94L tomorrow, could become a depression tomorrow in my opinion.

[Somerset Squall]

That's possible- a circulation is clear to see off the west coast of Florida now, though all the convection is limited to the southern semicircle at present with 94L.

93L has gained a little more convection over the last 6 hours. If this persists, this one may well become a tropical depression tomorrow too. Models are keen on development.

[kold weather]

94L is progressing very nicely indeed this morning, convection has developed near the circulation and on the southern side. The ULL currently is still inflicting shear upon this system but as the ULL moves to the west probably quicker then 94L it may well start to provide a more favourable set-up aloft.

The models are pretty negative overall for this system, most models do develop the system but they aren't too agressive other then the GFDL. I suspect most models keep the shear high enough to prevent much strengthening but its a delicate balancing act, esp as this is coming out of a cold cored evolution and they tend to be able to withstand high shear set-ups better then pure tropical systems, probably because they keep a cooler set-up in the upper levels which serves to keep the instablity high enough even wirh higher shear. Will be interesting to see how this all plays out!

I do so hate trying to predict these sorts of systems, they very often throw surprises, the last one that caused some real fun was Humberto...

[Rob]

oooh, i see 93 and 94 are neck and neck, both at 60%, who will be christened Danielle?!?! the race is on!

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/wv-l.jpg

93L should be declared a Tropical Depression in the next advisory, however it is about to start moving north, so it will be nothing more than a Tropical Storm at best.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

94L still has some work to do, but may be declared a Tropical Depression tommorow in my opinion depending what happens during the durinal maximum.

[Cookie]

94L

[summer blizzard]

94L has been upped to 70%, however while there is a strong circulation, there is no convection at all over the centre.

http://www.ssd.noaa....flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

[Cookie]

94L

[summer blizzard]

Anybody have the recon observations for 94L?

[CardiffStorm]

Anybody have the recon observations for 94L?

Not sure if this helps:

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/archive/access.cgi?year=2010&storm=DD&product=URNT11&who=AF&mission=01

[CardiffStorm]

94L is now Tropical Depression 5

[Iceberg]

93L might now finally make TD 6 in the next hr or so, given the stronger central convection and better organisation.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hmmm , been watching it on it's way from Africa and it seems to be doing OK?

Couple of big storms about to plop into the Atlantic from Africa too!

[smhouston]

Any idea what the east coast of mexico is going to be like from 23rd August onwards? This is probably the wrong thread for me to post in, but I don't care about whether I get sun or rain....I'm just bothered about getting hit by hurricanes when I go (I don't want to be hit by one! )

[summer blizzard]

93L has died. TD5 may be reinstated soon, but it looks like there sno real threat of development from any system for the moment.

[Paranoid]

There's another system off the coast of Africa which is currently 40%. Up from 20% earlier today.

[Iceberg]

There's another system off the coast of Africa which is currently 40%. Up from 20% earlier today.

Not been around much but I have been following this on the models for the last few days.

This has Atlantic Hurricane written all over it, so a few basic predictions.

Invest in the next 36 hrs, probably 24.

Hurricane in the next 7 days.

A Hurricane still in September !

Possible northern US east coast landfall, but tbh we are talking about 10-14 days away.

Definately a slow burning as steering currents a very low.

Conditions are favourable and a major is very realistically in the offering.

Track is difficult as there is a westward trend , then a gap in the atlantic ridge allowing a NW movement, which is might not take before the ridge reforms forcing it west wards again.

[Iceberg]

Well this is now invest 95: see below for the latest paths and intensity forecasts.

It looks like it will get its act together in the next 3 -4 days so the NHC percentages should gradually increase.

The biggest interest for me is how strong will it get and will it move through the temporary ridge weakness.

GFDL and HWRF are certaintly taking it to a CAT 2 or 3 as quite a large feature medium term.

Longer term GFS shows what happens when the hurricane does break through the ridge as it steam rollers across the Atlantic as a powerful extra-tropical storm and slams into the UK.

Whether this happens or not is still very debatable but it's certaintly already playing havoc with the forecasts for the UK.

So longer term the three main options are still

1 ) A hurricane develops Does NOT follow the Atlantic ridge weakness and moves westwards hitting the north of the Carolinas.

2 ) A hurricane develops Does get through the weakness gets caught in the Jet stream, but extra tropical transition isn't great and we get some wet weather.

3 ) As above but the extra tropical transistion does go well and we get a mother of a summer/autumn transition storm.

Going from what has happened previously and how the models tend to overplay the ridges moving of the US at the 8-10 day timeframe so far this summer I would have to go for something between 2 and 3 atm.

[Iceberg]

Latest ECM is out, is doesn't develop the system as much initially, however the general pattern and track is the same. As the system approaches our part of the atlantic it comes from a deep SW approach and so on the final ECM at T240 still has a tight sub-topical centre.

[The PIT]

4) Shear says din dins and east it all. I presume there isn't much shear around in it's projected path though.

It would be rather ironic in the so far quiet year we get battered by a huge storm. You can see the headlines now can't you.

[Somerset Squall]

After a lull in organisation, 95L really appears to be getting it's act together now. Banding features are impressive, along with increasing central convection and an increasingly tight centre of circulation. Will be a TD by tomorrow if this trend continues. NHC now put 95L at 60% chance of beocming a tropical depression in the next 48hrs.