Atlantic Invest Thread 2010

[Paranoid]

92L seems to have vanished on the models for the 12z run. Might just be the models getting confused again, they had trouble recognising Gaston when he formed.

[Iceberg]

92L seems to have vanished on the models for the 12z run. Might just be the models getting confused again, they had trouble recognising Gaston when he formed.

ECM has been quite good at picking it up, but fails to initialise it on the 12Z really, these are tropical models 12Z

[Iceberg]

The models are still struggling to pick 92L up(global models that it). Organisation however continues to improve and I wouldn't be surprised to see NHC up it to Red, it will be slow going, but the circulation is gradually getting there and the convection is moving towards the centre.

[Katherine]

92L now upped to Red, 60% chance of TC formation.

[AderynCoch]

92L upgraded to 60%.

93L has also arrived, hot off the coast of West Africa. Development odds currently at 30%

[Iceberg]

92L is starting to look every bit a tropical depression/storm now, organisation has really got going this afternoon, surprisingly quickly really.

Recon are current on the way to investigation to see if it has a closed circulation, if they find one then we will have our next system and advisories will be started.

I've got a feeling this will be a problem system to forecast simply because the globals still really refuse to believe it exists, tropicals are split into two camps one yucatan then BOC, one up over Cuba.

We also have Invest 93L which might well turn tropical even though it's only a stone's throw from Africa, path takes it NW quite quickly and also strenghtens it quite quickly. It's going to be a bit of race to see whether 92 or 93 becomes Julia first.

[AderynCoch]

A real schism going on with the models I see. It's tempting to go somewhere in the middle but closer to the Yucatan posse - Jamaica looks quite likely to be affected.

[Iceberg]

My head says the yucatan, but I fear the cuban route.

[summer blizzard]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gustav_2008_track.png

92L reminds me a lot of Hurricane Gustav in 2008, however given its track thus far, i would favour a Yucatan hit, though slighly north than models currently show.

[Iceberg]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gustav_2008_track.png

92L reminds me a lot of Hurricane Gustav in 2008, however given its track thus far, i would favour a Yucatan hit, though slighly north than models currently show.

I'd agree normally but I'd put the centre here looking a the latest visual loops, the models just havent got it yet, GFS 12Z was quite a failure of an initialisation of 92L, maybe ECM 12Z will do better.

[Iceberg]

Nope 12Z EM killed a closed circulation at the first frame...

[summer blizzard]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

Just needs some convection over the centre and this could be upgraded straight to a Tropical Storm.

[Iceberg]

Yep it certainly looks the part, 93L looks very good as well.

[Jack Wales]

The convection appears to have all but disappeared from 92L, ironically just when the rotation is starting to look better defined.

[Katherine]

Both areas red-alerted by the NHC. Caribbean one is at 60% and our African one is at 70%. New Yellow blob in central Atlantic looking unpromising.

[Iceberg]

93L looks to be certain tropial storm IMO due to be named Julia at 9.45am today approx, looking at the microwave imagery.

92L looks pretty dire of convection, However it won't take much for convection to fire up in the centre now that the LLCC has become better defined.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv-l.jpg

92L is shown as 50% on the main page, however i do believe it has been delcared Tropical Depression 12.

93L has been given a 100% chance of development.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv-l.jpg

93L was declared TD12.

In regards to 92L, it has taken on a broader look though there is plenty of convection. The problem for me is that it has what i call multiple centre syndrome, one over Haiti which is completely open, and one at 74W, 16N which is sorrounded by convection and should become the dominant centre over the next 24 hours, i actually would not be suprised if we have TD13 in tommorow mornings advisory.

Also, is recon going in at 18:00? If so, do they set off at that time or start reporting at that time?

[Paranoid]

They've upgraded 92L to 70% (in a special advisory). Looks like it's got its centre problem sorted out and it certainly looks the part. I'd say it was a TS from the pictures. I imagine recon will be investigating it at some point so i think we should keep an eye on 92L. Some of the models make it a hurricane in the BOC.

[Cookie]

A TCFA has been issued and this system is just bout to hit massive heat potential. Hurricane Karl won't be far off IMO

Edited September 14, 2010 by cookie

[dallas]

Just been reading a blog from a native from Bermuda, they are syaing that the NHC says "do not put to much credance on the five day path prediction"

A bit nerving though seeing Igor heading in your general direction!

[Iceberg]

The busy last month, looks set to continue with Global model predictions for Yet another FISH storm after Julia and then a GOM storm from the GFS 06Z after Karl.

[summer blizzard]

The busy last month, looks set to continue with Global model predictions for Yet another FISH storm after Julia and then a GOM storm from the GFS 06Z after Karl.

Indeed, GFS insists run after run on a storm forming in around 120 hours just east of the Leeward Islands.

[Iceberg]

A new yellow area of interest from NHC, which is again taken to a hurricane by various models, This is the FISH one talked about above....

[Iceberg]

The above is now invest 94L, has a 60% chance of being a TS in the next 48 hrs according to the NHC.

Dvorak estimates are T1.5 and Navy have him as 25kts. This is also what Ships etc initialise him as.

There seems to be good circulation and some persistant convection, however there is some SW shear.

The likes of GFDL do take it to a CAT 3 Hurricane (Again) and depending on the track this might not be too far off.

Anyway IMO this is likely to be a TD soon and TS Lisa either today or tomorrow. (we are getting through the names arnt we)