Atlantic Invest Thread 2010

[Jack Wales]

Looking far better orgainised now with strong convection, good rotation in a low shear environment. Should be upgraded to a TD at the next advisory.

[Iceberg]

The conveyor has no sign of stopping after TD9, GM's produce 2 more systems after this in the next 2 weeks. (we'll be totally fed up of them by then !)

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

The conveyor has no sign of stopping after TD9, GM's produce 2 more systems after this in the next 2 weeks. (we'll be totally fed up of them by then !)

Nah,

Keep them coming.....

[summer blizzard]

The conveyor has no sign of stopping after TD9, GM's produce 2 more systems after this in the next 2 weeks. (we'll be totally fed up of them by then !)

It is amazing how quickly this season has ramped up, two occasions of having three named storms at once.

[peterf]

The conveyor has no sign of stopping after TD9, GM's produce 2 more systems after this in the next 2 weeks. (we'll be totally fed up of them by then !)

keep the steam train running,i'll never get fed up of these.

[Paranoid]

What i presume is 99L has just formed off the coast of Africa. The Atlantic is really churning them out at the moment. Currently only at 10% but given how quickly 98L became Gaston (and assuming conditions are equally favourable) this could go on to be Hermine fairly quickly.

1. YET ANOTHER STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT TO MOVE OFF THE WEST COAST

OF AFRICA AND IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF

THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH OVER THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS

SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Edited September 1, 2010 by Paranoid

[Katherine]

keep the steam train running,i'll never get fed up of these.

Errrmmmm.... this is getting wholeheartedly ridiculous. There's ANOTHER Big Yellow Blob popped up on the NHC front page.

Hermine's about to appear!

[summer blizzard]

Errrmmmm.... this is getting wholeheartedly ridiculous. There's ANOTHER Big Yellow Blob popped up on the NHC front page.

Hermine's about to appear!

30% Now. Looks very strong, lots of convection.

[summer blizzard]

30% Now. Looks very strong, lots of convection.

Lowered to 20% and is also moving north west, thus if it does develop it is almost certain to be a FISH.

[Paranoid]

We have the remains of Gaston at 80% and a system in the GOM (probably merged with the remnants of TD11-E from the pacific) at 60%.

[Paranoid]

The GFS model shows two more cape verde systems (most likely Igor and Julia) forming in the next 5 days or so. Igor looks like it could get pretty strong even halfway between the Caribbean and Africa, so definatley one to watch. None of the models seem to make anything of Gaston's remnants so i expect they will dissipate due to land interaction before re-organising sufficiently.

[Iceberg]

I don't unfortunately have time to do alot of screen prints, however Invest 91L (which has been expected for sometime), is getting it's act together and is likely to be tropical storm Igor soon.

ECM has been reluctant to develop this too much, but is now fully onboard, so GFS, ECM and tropical models like GFDL all make this a Hurricane pretty sharpish.

GFS and ECM do not create a ridge weakness for a re-curve and ECM in particularly is hinting at a very strong US hit 13 days or so down the line.

This will almost certainly be a slow burner and track and intensity will not be known yet, but that this will develop is as certain as can be.

Personally I am going for a high to mid Florida hit on the 21st or 22nd of September.Hope I am wrong.

The models do show a further development behind Igor leaving Africa and some also toy with another GOM/BOC storm a week or so down the line, which should keep the September activity going and the ACE score rising.

[mountain shadow]

If any name sounds like a Hurricane, Igor certainly fits the bill.

Certainly the laws of probabilities favour a US mainland hit with the recurve into the Atlantic being predominant this hurricane season.

[dallas]

Igor is now named

[mountain shadow]

A Hurricane by Saturday according to NOAA.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl#contents

A case of whether it stays a fish or not.

[Iceberg]

We now have invest 92L, this is a very new feature so not many models are running with it, NHC have upped it to 40% though and GFS 06Z agrees as it develops a hurricane/strong TS that is due to hit the Yucatan and them into the GOM/BOC.

ECM has been toying with this feature as well, so it will need to be watch as it present much more danger than Igor(atm).

[Cookie]

92L

this must be kept an eye on due to its location

[AderynCoch]

It's at an unusually southern latitude, that's for sure. Due to land interaction I can only see this thing developing once it clears the Guajira Peninsula, and even then wind shear in the region of 10-20kts will probably make conditions marginal.

EDIT - scrub that, it should start to move away from South America before reaching the Guajira Peninsula, in which case it will certainly steer clear of 20kts+ shear.

Edited September 9, 2010 by AderynCoch

[jonboy]

Given that many forecasts at the start of the season said that we would be in for a very active hurricane seasons i get the impression that this has failed to materalise. from my own perspective it appears that storms have formed but never quiet developed as people thought they would. Do people agree and if what do people think the causes are?

[Iceberg]

Latest paths and intensities suggest a very dangerous storm.

[Cookie]

Given that many forecasts at the start of the season said that we would be in for a very active hurricane seasons i get the impression that this has failed to materalise. from my own perspective it appears that storms have formed but never quiet developed as people thought they would. Do people agree and if what do people think the causes are?

totally disagree where well in line for a active hurricane season we're on the 9th named storm of the season and on avarge the 9th named storm doesn't usually form to mid October. plenty of time yet.

[summer blizzard]

Not too sure i would be giving this 40% at the moment for a few reasons..

1) The circulation is broad

2) There is a weak low level circulation, however it is nowhere near the upper level circulation

3) There is a lot of dry air north of this system

I think that there is a chance of development in 48-72 hours and i do think that it could be a dangerous storm, however there are many pitfalls.

[Cookie]

92L

[Cookie]

92L

up to 40%

[Iceberg]

92L is starting to show a little more rotation and a bit of banding, although convection is still sparse particularly around any kind of centre.

There has been a worrying trend in the models for this today, with a noticable Northward shift. GFDL and HWRF even bring the future julia/karl north of cuba on a heading towards florida. This is quite a difference from the Yucatan hit that the models where showing. ECM 12Z will be interesting to see if it continues with a Yucantan/BOC combination or follows the trend northwards.

Definately one to watch though.