Atlantic Invest Thread 2010

[summer blizzard]

The above is now invest 94L, has a 60% chance of being a TS in the next 48 hrs according to the NHC.

Dvorak estimates are T1.5 and Navy have him as 25kts. This is also what Ships etc initialise him as.

There seems to be good circulation and some persistant convection, however there is some SW shear.

The likes of GFDL do take it to a CAT 3 Hurricane (Again) and depending on the track this might not be too far off.

Anyway IMO this is likely to be a TD soon and TS Lisa either today or tomorrow. (we are getting through the names arnt we)

This could be a threat to the USA, it should turn more west after 40W.

[Cookie]

up to 80% only a matter of time till wet get Lisa

[Katherine]

Another one for the fish?

[Iceberg]

Yep, I would probably but money on this staying along way from land.

Looking at the floater and microwave imagery, this is definately a TS IMO, Visual shows a good circulation and convection over the centre, winds look to be at least 25kts and quite likely 35-40kts.

TBh I can't see why advisories haven't started, except as mentioned this is no threat to anybody really...

[Cookie]

Still holding off on the upgrade as of yet.

[Iceberg]

Well Lisa has now been named, but where will Matthew be.....(I'll show some interest in this one since it's my name).

It looks like the Yellow area of interest just entering the Caribbean will become Matthew, Latest models show it then hitting Nicaragua, then moving up and over Honduras before re-entering the Caribbean and moving between the Yucatan and Belize in the GOM proper, there is good model agreement here.

ECM shows what Matt might become as it heads towards the underneath of the US, quite a monster really.......This Season shows no sign of stopping..

[AderynCoch]

Yikes, that's a bona fide beast alright!

Much of 95L's fate will depend on how much land interaction there will be before any potential emergence in the Gulf of Mexico. SSTs are very warm in the Caribbean and wind shear should remain low before the system reaches Yucatan/Belize/wherever, so it should continue to develop whilst it's over the ocean. A more land-based track over Central America would greatly lessen the chances of it re-emerging over the Gulf of Mexico.

[Iceberg]

He does need to be watch very very closly, atm he looks like a very angry, disorganised child (but getting more organised).

Here's are the few tracks available atm and the intensities(not many yet as GFDL and HWRF have not yet initialised him we will need to wait until 6-7pm later tonight.

However the thing that's striking is how SHIPS et al take him to a strong CAT 4 very very quickly due to a fantastically good environment for strenghtening.

It looks like it will likely spend it's life as a barrel of TNT waiting to go off.

convective image as well.

[Paranoid]

Conditions in the area around 95L are excellent, although shear is forecast to increase to about 10-15kt in the next day or so. SSTs are well above average and pretty much the entire Caribbean has SSTs of at least 30c, along with lots of moist air. I feel it is worth mentioning that all of the October Cat 5 storms (such as Hattie, Mitch, Wilma) formed in the Caribbean. As for how strong 95L can get, it really depends on how quickly it gets itself organised before it makes landfall in Nicaragua (the CMC shows it about to head back out into the Caribbean at T=144h.) Given the historical precedent of strong storms in this area of the Atlantic at this time of year, 95L definately needs to be watched closely.

Edited September 21, 2010 by Paranoid

[Cookie]

needs to be watched very closely this one

[Paranoid]

NHC have upgraded 95L to 50%. Quite a jump from 20% so looks like it's getting organised fairly swiftly. Recon reported a gust of 48mph so it may end up skipping TD status if it is deemed to a be a tropical system.

[Iceberg]

Looking at the visual loops it's possible that he has developed at least an upper circulation today, recon are due tomorrow to see if it's closed near the surface.

The 12Z models are showing some uncertainty (not on whether it will be a TS though), ECM does still develop a hurricane that goes heading off into the Caribbean, HWRF shows something similar, timings are all different though, GFDL follows GFS and takes it further inland (before assumingly) taking him back into the GOM.

Still alot of unknowns about this one, but buckets of potential for something.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/rb-l.jpg

Less than 24 hours away from becoming a TS in my opinion and certainly the most exiting storm this season if it does develop.

In terms of track certainly interesting but i think the models will take a northward shift, with a possible Yucatan hit however if the trough moves in faster or is more amplified the turn north will occur earlier, which would be extremely concerning given the heat content off western Cuba.

In terms of strength, a category 3 is a given, if he turns north and aviods landfall, we have a category 5 heading for western Florida.

[summer blizzard]

Sustained winds of 26KT would make this a TD if convection was over the centre.

[Paranoid]

The next update will be at 1am and then another one at 7am, so we should know whether we have TD 15 (or indeed TS Matthew) by morning.

[Iceberg]

IT's still in it's convection = circulation phase, rather than a circulation = convection stage, due to this and the fact it has to do alot of work yet to get the circulation down to the ground(unlike the cape verde storms) I wouldn't be surprised if this took 2 or 3 days to develop, certainly tonight or tomorrow morning at the earliest.

[Iceberg]

There is more agreement in the models this morning(at least the better ones) of a sharp turn north either over C.America or just before. Whether it misses Yucatan is open to debate atm. After that the Globals are starting to agree on a Major hurricane developing, maybe clipping Cuba and Entering the Eastern GOM.

This will change, but at least some general consensus.

[AderynCoch]

I feel it is worth mentioning that all of the October Cat 5 storms (such as Hattie, Mitch, Wilma) formed in the Caribbean.

Yes, as we head towards October the attention focuses away from Cape Verde and towards the Caribbean. In the late season tropical disturbances have a knack of loitering off the coast of Central America before taking shape, Wilma being a classic example. Storms also tend to curve northeastwards very quickly, often hitting Cuba.

The recurvature of 95L has been brought forward by the models, which now mainly turn it northwards before hitting the Yucatan Peninsula. Not good if you're in Cuba or Florida, as the potential for development over highly favourable seas has increased.

Edited September 22, 2010 by AderynCoch

[Iceberg]

The biggest problem for him, will be to strink the upper circulation, ECM is a prime example where it shows a broad area of low pressure(whichout a fine centre) moving up towards florida.

I think ECM is wrong and it will develop, but it will need time...

[Cookie]

Getting its act togeather now

[Iceberg]

Flights today and tomorrow, with todays expected to find an invest and tomorrow a cyclone(TD or TS), going from this they are probably thinking he will be named tomorrow morning UK time, probably the 10am BST update.

I am still not convinced we are have an LLCC, definately a broad Low pressure area with westerly winds though.

. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. SUSPECT AREA -- CARRIBBEAN

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71

A. 22/1800Z A. 23/0600-1200Z

B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST B. AFXXX 0215A CYCLONE

C. 22/1700Z C. 23/0400Z

D. 12.5N 68.5W D. 12.6N 71.0W

E. 22/1730-2300Z E. 23/0500-1200Z

F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. SFC TO 15,000FT

[AderynCoch]

95L upped to 60%.

[Cookie]

95L

[summer blizzard]

We are getting close to developing a closed circulation, plenty of convection, the only problem currently being that the upper and mid level circulation have not currently got down to the surface yet, possibly due to the fast westward movement.

[dallas]

Some track forecasts for 95, one to be watched, they have being saying nearly all new storms will have westward motion,