Atlantic Invest Thread 2010

[Somerset Squall]

Looks like some dry air is filtering into 91L's circulation. This could slow development. Interesting to note also is the increasingly better organised wave behind 91L, surely we won't see another absorption scenario (91L absorbed 90L)?

[Jack Wales]

Still at 90% chance for developing into a TC

"SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE

SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE

VERDE ISLANDS REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS

REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD

FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...

90 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS".

The system seems to have lost a lot of it's deep convection although the low level circulation appears to be developing.

[Cookie]

Still waiting on an upgrade to a tropical depression

[mountain shadow]

TD cannot be far off now looking at that sat picture Cookie. Certainly seems to be some circulation in there.

[Katherine]

Another yellow blob has... erm.... 'blobbed' its way onto the NHC's website... Invest 92L anyone?

[Somerset Squall]

I wouldn't be surprised Katherine. NHC currently only giving 20% chance of development, and this probably mainly due to it's very southerly location. As long as it doesn't move to quickly, then the environment in the Caribbean is actually not bad which could allow some development to take place.

[Somerset Squall]

91L became Tropical Storm Colin.

As Katherine predicted above, the disturbance in the Caribbean has become invest 92L. The system has gained a little lattitude and has therefore moved further away from the landmass of South America. An anticyclone appears to be settling in above the system, sheilding the invest from high shear and creating a favourable upper level environment. Add to this some toasty waters and you have the ingredients for further development, this one needs to be watched.

[Jack Wales]

92L looking much better organised today...

[Cookie]

92L

looking better tonight.

Edited August 4, 2010 by cookie

[Somerset Squall]

Agreed Cookie. Ex-Colin's not looking bad either considering

[Iceberg]

92L is looking good, I don't have time to do a detailed post, but the path forecasts are through the Yucatan, into the BOC and into Mexico.

I would not be surprised if this makes Hurricane status personally, but it's got a long path ahead of it.

[Jack Wales]

It appears that convection has decreased considerably overnight for 92L and that it will have a lot to do today to stand any chance of development. I think it could be dead in the water.

[Iceberg]

93L has now appeared, which was being followed in the wave thread. Looks like a very likely TS in the near future, with all models taking her upto TS strength (some beyond).

Anyway definately a fish as the same ridge weakness exists which Colin has gone through, except for this storm it will be even weaker and further east. so the turn should occur by 50W, path is NW and the northward component will help very much good circulation.

[summer blizzard]

93L has now appeared, which was being followed in the wave thread. Looks like a very likely TS in the near future, with all models taking her upto TS strength (some beyond).

Anyway definately a fish as the same ridge weakness exists which Colin has gone through, except for this storm it will be even weaker and further east. so the turn should occur by 50W, path is NW and the northward component will help very much good circulation.

NHC gives it a 40% chance of development within the next 48 hours.

[Cookie]

93L

[Cookie]

the 3 systems in the one place.

[Cookie]

92L

[Katherine]

Any thoughts on 93L?

[Cookie]

92L

[Cookie]

93L

Still at 40%

40%

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000

ABNT20 KNHC 070551

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL

STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 245 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS

ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST

OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE

FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A

MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE

NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.

THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND SIGNIFICANT

DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND

OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE LATER TODAY. THERE IS A LOW

CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

92L

Still at 10%

924

ABNT20 KNHC 070551

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL

STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 245 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS

ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST

OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE

FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A

MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE

NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.

THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND SIGNIFICANT

DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND

OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE LATER TODAY. THERE IS A LOW

CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/vis-l.jpg

93L certainly looks like a Tropical Depression to me.

[Paranoid]

93L has been upped to 60% in the last 20 mins or so.

[Iceberg]

93L is still struggling to get any decent convection going, it has the circulation and could be declared a TD probably, just like Colin it's going to have to go north as it moves around the ridge where intensification might be possible.

TBH I am struggling to get excited about 93L even though it's likely to be Danielle at some point.....

[Cookie]

93L

A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued.

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//

WTNT21 KNGU 080400

RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE

WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.0N 41.0W TO 26.0N

49.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT

JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS

TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

METSAT IMAGERY AT 080000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS

LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 41.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD

AT 15 KNOTS.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST 1050NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE

VERDE ISLAND IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KTS.

AT 08/0000Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF

CONVECTION THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SAHARAN

AIR LAYER LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DE-

CREASED IN STRENGTH OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS PRODUCING FAVORABLE

CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW WIND SHEAR, UPPER

LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF

83 TO 86 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, HELPING TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT

OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE VALID UNTIL 090400Z.//

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/bd-l.jpg

93L has been upped to 70% and from radar images looks like it could be upgraded at any moment.