Atlantic Invest Thread 2010

[Jack Wales]

Please see the system I've pointed out with the blue arrow on the below attachement, I first noticed this little disturbance about three days ago and it has been creeping westwards accross the atlantic ever since. It has suffered from shear and a generally settled air mass but convection finally appears to be getting more organised. There also appears to be a fairly good circulation although it is due to enter some moderate northerly shear in the next 12 hours or so. After that there appears scope for some development, especially as it is due to pass over warmer SST's.

I thought it may have been picked up by NOAA by now but they obviously know a lot nore than me!! Does anyone else have any views on this little disturbance?

Satellite image.doc

Edited July 9, 2010 by Jack Wales

[Iceberg]

My take on it would be that it will struggle to get enough convection to develop given the pressure (1020mb) which will keep a lid on any deep convection developing.

There is a positive sign in that the ITCZ is leaving Africa at the most northerly point this year (see below). This would normally provide a few storms crossing the atlantic.

However the HP is set to sit out in the mid atlantic and just build for the next 4 or 5 days which is really preventing anything from developing from over Africa, hence why I think we need to wait 9-10 days which should allow the High to move nearer us allowing a lower of pressure between 10N and 20N.

In the current pattern the next tropical storm is likely to be another TD2/Alex affair due to the steering currents in the caribbean, so personally I will be looking for good convective blobs with a bit of turn in them as they cross the Windies into the eastern caribbean.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Kat! Here's another 'nasty blob' falling into the Atlantic, I bet this get's a number then name pretty quickly!!!

[Cookie]

Hi Kat! Here's another 'nasty blob' falling into the Atlantic, I bet this get's a number then name pretty quickly!!!

these dose have a habit of going poof, A heck of a lot of SAL out thier

[Katherine]

Hi Kat! Here's another 'nasty blob' falling into the Atlantic, I bet this get's a number then name pretty quickly!!!

Apologies for any terminology shortcomings!!

[Cookie]

We now have 97L

[Iceberg]

Yep, As per my post over on the disturbance thread This might have some legs on it, path is generally westwards maybe into GOM or Florida.

I actually prefer the one centre at 80 17 more but convection is still starting to get strong around 97L, Shear however is strong and forecast to remain strong to the north over the next 2 to 3 days.

[Iceberg]

97 seems to be firing off well atm, still sheared though.

Paths seems to taking it into the GOM, with HWRF creating a well formed low in the middle of the GOM, Ships probably has too much strengthening and too quickly takes 97 into a tropical storm.

Not long before we get 98 IMO.

[Rob]

97 looks promising for development, and i agree with you Iceberg , i don't think it'll be long before 98L is declared either.

[kold weather]

I'll keep this very brief since I've had a long day and am far too shattered for a long post right now!

97L showing good convection now close to PR. Earlier in the day the convective shield was huge due to the shear helping to establish a broad divergent set-up. Since then the ULL has weakened a good deal and the shear is weakening quite rapidly as a result. Upper Divergence is HUGE right now hence why this system is having no problem creating deep convection. Sat.loops suggest perhaps a new MLC/LLC is trying to develop about 50 miles to the NE of PR which would fit where the super divergent set-up is right now. If this one didn't trek into Hispaniola it'd probably very likely develop but the interaction with Hispaniola and later Cuba.

Track looks like a west/WNW close or through the islands and then into the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions aloft look ok though there is only a small region of lower shear it must move through. Its well worth watching thats for sure!

[Cookie]

97L

h

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

Needs to develop convection over the centre and shift north, but a good chance of development.

[Cookie]

[Somerset Squall]

Been upped to a medium 40% risk now. Showers have become more concentrated with the wave this morning, and shear is weakening. However, as Kold says, land interaction may well hinder development.

[Paranoid]

Now up to 60%

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE

EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA.

ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS

BECOMING BETTER DEFINED JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF

HISPANIOLA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE

FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH

CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OR STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE

VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...

EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN

BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

If it aint TD3 now, it will be by tommorow morning. Good chance of a major hurricaner from this.

[Nick L]

The Weather Channel just showed the storm track to be literally just off the Florida coast by Thursday afternoon. I fly home on Friday evening...

[Cookie]

The Weather Channel just showed the storm track to be literally just off the Florida coast by Thursday afternoon. I fly home on Friday evening...

keep any on it mate and all the media outlets

[Nick L]

The Weather Channel has a tropical update every hour at :50. Just said that it will head towards Florida, bringing a lot of rain whatever happens. Does anybody think it will make it to central Florida by Friday evening?

keep any on it mate and all the media outlets

I have TWC on pretty much 24-7 anyway

[kold weather]

http://www.ssd.noaa....t/carb/wv-l.jpg

If it aint TD3 now, it will be by tommorow morning. Good chance of a major hurricaner from this.

Agreed but because we have recon going in they probably won't bother to upgrade unless there is obvious proof of there being a LLC from either a ship or land ob with solid westerlies. This is obviously in the process of developing. There is shear aloft but that should ease somewhat as the upper high builds to the north. The only slight issue I do have is the lower levels really are racing at the moment, indeed the shear right now is being caused by the lower levels really being too quick for the upper flow. Upper Divergence and Lower convergence are just amazing and the Vorticity has improved markedly in the last 24hrs.

General idea remains the same for a WNW just to the north of the islands and then either heading towards the Florida Straits or into S.Florida. Whilst i'm not sure what option to go for now I perfer maybne a far south Florida hit based on perhaps a quicker development then some models are gunning for.

[Iceberg]

97L still looks to be suffering from lack of a true centre and multi mini centres.

I doubt it will get TD or TS status today, but tomorrow might be more promising, the tracks are very consistant with a double strike on Florida if it can get it's act together, however it only has 48-72 hrs before hitting aouthern Florida and IMO it might be touch and go whether it forms a CDO around a LLCC before this time.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

97L seems to have shed its convection strangely, though its centre has relocated eastward which should give it more time over water. Could this be the lower and upper levels being too detached? NHC have upped development to 70% and recon will be in at 18:00, so it has six hours to regain convecdtion, though there is now a pretty well defined curviture. Must say, this system reminds me of Danny (definitely began with a D) in 2005, just north of the Islands.

[Somerset Squall]

Dennis was the D storm in 2005, though I think you may be on about Danny from last year? A very decoupled storm if there ever was one.

[summer blizzard]

No, i did mean Dennis from 2005 in that it eventually hit the Florida Panhandle.

[Katherine]

Hurricane Hunter recon flight for today cancelled. It's gone back from 70% chance to 60% chance of development. Why would this be, given the conditions are right?

Edited July 21, 2010 by Katherine