Atlantic Invest Thread 2010

[kold weather]

Sadly not got much time tonight for an update, just some basic thoughts.

Models aren't too keen on the system, I'm not too sure why though because conditions aloft become very favourable over the W.Caribbean as the SHIPS models pick up (they go very agressive with 93L...but wrongly assume we already have 25kts TD of course.) with an upper high over the region

Convection right now is quite weak, so that has to improve if we are to get development but if you put a gun to my head and asked me whether this will develop, I'd probably say yes...track ideas would be generally WNW, landfall in Yucatan then lift out somewhat towards the NW.

I'll post again tomorrow some point when I've had time for a much better look at things.

[Iceberg]

some very evident mid level circulation now around a centre at roughyl 15N 69W.

NHC have also upped it to 50% chance of being a tropical storm in the next 48 hrs, (just shy of a red alert)

However now that circulation has improved, convection is sparse again near the centre.

Largely though I agree with the NHC that there is probably a 50/50 chance of this developing into a TS within the next day or so.

Models are still sticking with the path, i.e NW probably more chance of Cuba than Yucatan, before starting northwards on the west side of a ridge hitting the GOM under belly somewhere near the oil well.

Strength is still anyones guess with anything from a Cat 1 to Cat 4/5 , conditions are still very good over it's lifetime, but going from how this wee beastie(or it's daddy) coped with the shear prior the caribbean and the fact it's getting it's act together again now it shouldn't be under estimated.

One last quick thing, the 00Z models will be interesting and I think this might make TD1 within the next 24 hrs, it's very close IMO

[The PIT]

So BP's clock has been set and now is ticking. Just thinking if it does make hurricane status the damage it could do by spreading the oil in land.

[Paranoid]

Just noticed on the latest CMC model run that it shows two systems in the gulf at the same time at about 120h. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010062200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Edited June 22, 2010 by Paranoid

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm sure Haitii and the oil leak are uppermost in our minds but let's not forget N.O. and it's 'rebuilt' Levee's.

N.O. has not faced a cat 4 or 5 since Katrina and the models keep showing 93l smashing straight into that area.

Then there are the rest of the rigs and infrastructure along the gulf coast. We saw U.S. warships shepparding oil tankers back in 05' so we know where we are headed....just that petrol was a lot cheaper back in 05' and we weren't trying to recover from a ecconomic downturn!!!

[kold weather]

I'm not all that impressed by its current look, we've got some convection popping up but no real LLC evident and just broad Mid level turning. The region its in tends to not see very much activity in June because the Columbian low feature tends to push up a lot of more stable air up from the land into the Caribbean and whilst upper conditions are very good I think this is probably preventing any tightening of the feature. Convergence is very broad and this tends to not be too great either because it doesn't really allow any tight convective zone which makes it harder for any system to develop a circulation down to the surface.

Usually with these sorts of systems we won't see much actual development till we get the system into the more climatologically favoured region of the W.Caribbean. Conditions in the W.Caribbean look very good according to the models so as long as we can get convergence at the surface by then I see no real reason why it can't develop as the models are keen on the upper high currently over 93L...

The models aren't at all keen on this system with most runs showing a weak TD/TS developing and pretty much staying at that level till landfall. An added uncertainty is 95E, with several models trying to recurve it NE towards Mexico as 93L creates a weakness, that would mean shear from 95E's outflow will down the line hit 93L. Thats some way out yet but something to keep an eye on.

[Iceberg]

Looking at the visual loops there seems to have been a marked increase in circulation and mid and high heights, what's happening at the surface is more difficult to find out, but the circulation is quite tight, with convection staying repeatedly above the centre (currently at approx 70W 16N).

GFDL did take this to a CAT 4 on the 00Z run and what we are seeing IMO is each model picking up and developing it then dropping it again, dependent probably upon how it picks it up initially.

Still with 25kts, mid to upper turning and convection persistantly near the centre (although lacking elsewhere), all thats needed to turn this into TD1 IMO is the confirmed LLCC.

Personally I would plump for this to be TD1 at 10.00 tomorrow given some diurnal pick up in convection, a flight tomorrow might happen depending on how it peforms over the next 12 hrs.

[Iceberg]

The NHC flight plan below.

Interesting that It's an invest tomorrow but a cylcone they are investigating the day after, this IMO shows their thoughts on the system.

Also they don't often plan such frequent flights to something that is still an invest.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF JAMAICA)

FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70

A. 23/1800Z

B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST

C. 23/1330Z

D. 17.0N 77.5W

E. 23/1700Z TO 23/2100Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71

A. 24/0600Z

B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE

C. 24/0100Z

D. 17.5N 79.5W

E. 24/0400Z TO 24/0830Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Somerset Squall]

NHC have dropped the chances of TC formation in the next 48hrs to 20%. 93L certainly looks less organised than yesterday, and I think we will have to wait until later in the week for this one to become a tropical depression.

[kold weather]

The main problem is it has a broad area of convergence and this is leading to several very weak circulations competing with each other. The western area that I think the NHC were watching has pretty much totally decayed as a somewhat stronger convective mass has blown up in response to the increased Upper Divergence thanks to the shear to the N/NE of the system. This has allowed that region to develop a MLC.

I personally can't understand why the NHC have downed it to 20%, I'd have gone down to 30% myself, esp given the turning that is starting to strengthen on the NE convection. However that being said I'd be worried about the convection weakening quite rapidly once the convection edges away from the very divergent area. Another worry is the upper high has shifted a little further west then expected which is now allowing some southerly upper shear to come up and over the system and with it having quite a tight gradient it probably isn't helping the system

I still think it has a pretty good chance down the line, esp once it can get under the upper high and into an area of the basin which favoured in June for development. It'll probably need watching the most in the W.cAribbean and up through the Gulf of Mexico.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd-l.jpg

Looks very good on sattelite imigary, i would be suprised if we do not have TD1.

In regards to track, it does look like it will hit the Gulf coast, however i would be suprised this early in the season if it more than a category 2 hurricane, category 3 at best, i would also punt for Texas, i can't see it recurving all that much.

[Cookie]

93L

[kold weather]

Thanks for the image Cookie. This region looks like it has some weak broad low level turning and convection has been strengthening over the past few hours. This appears to be in response to it moving away from the convective burst which was stealing and consolidating the convergence over itself, which also prevented the wave axis from developing much needed convergence. At the same time a mid level circulation formed with the convective mass and is still present with it.

However attention needs to shift due south of Haiti with the actual wave axis because there is a ship reporting WNW wind now at least suggestive of a system trying to get to the first stages of closing up. If convergence increases over this region and we can get convection to blow up in the Durinal max in the next 9-12hrs or so then who knows. Both the GFS/ECM do show a weakly closed system passing south of Jamaica.

My own call now would be for a 30-35kts system making landfall in the Yucatan probably Friday into Saturday, probably emerging into the S.Gulf or N.BoC and move WNW/NW as a trough tries to inflict some weakness. Whether or not it totally succeds its far too early to tell.

[pyrotech]

Thanks for the image Cookie. This region looks like it has some weak broad low level turning and convection has been strengthening over the past few hours. This appears to be in response to it moving away from the convective burst which was stealing and consolidating the convergence over itself, which also prevented the wave axis from developing much needed convergence. At the same time a mid level circulation formed with the convective mass and is still present with it.

However attention needs to shift due south of Haiti with the actual wave axis because there is a ship reporting WNW wind now at least suggestive of a system trying to get to the first stages of closing up. If convergence increases over this region and we can get convection to blow up in the Durinal max in the next 9-12hrs or so then who knows. Both the GFS/ECM do show a weakly closed system passing south of Jamaica.

My own call now would be for a 30-35kts system making landfall in the Yucatan probably Friday into Saturday, probably emerging into the S.Gulf or N.BoC and move WNW/NW as a trough tries to inflict some weakness. Whether or not it totally succeds its far too early to tell.

Where did you get the ship reports?

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/ft-l.jpg

Not quite sure what will happen now, because the system has split into three different systems now.

[Cookie]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/ft-l.jpg

Not quite sure what will happen now, because the system has split into three different systems now.

its getting a bit complex!

[Iceberg]

Yep, but the main system is looking every bit a TD, Very strong convection, good circulation and the forming of a CDO.

Only a matter of time before this is named a TD IMO and I think it will strengthen quite quickly.(Shame about the quikscat ending)

The second centre further east could be a forming TD, but circulation is less notable there.

The 12Z model output should be interesting.

[summer blizzard]

Indeed, the first blob is most likely to develop because the second and third are still linked, so until they merge they will hinder devlopment of each other, the third blob certainly has an open circulation.

[kold weather]

Yet again a short post here (thanks to work, going to only catch small parts of the match today, damn!)

The main Wave axis with broad low still not showing any convective development whilst the MLC to the west that was south of DR has moved westwards and strengthened during D-Max again.

The problem for this system is its going the very long way round to development. If convection coul develop over the borad low it would probably become a TD in 12-18hrs...BUT because its started with a MLC and then has to dig down to the surface it takes longer. Sometimes it really can take 3-5 days for the whole process to finish off and sometimes they need frictional help to tighten up the LLC. Whilst I don't think this will be the case, with this style of development, I'd be surprised if we get much in the next 24-36hrs, though it'll still look good in that time. Stll think though we will have TD1 before the end of the week.

[Cookie]

First Visible of the day

Edited June 23, 2010 by cookie

[Cookie]

Now at 30%

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM HAITI SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL

CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF

EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO

RICO...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE

FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD OR

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA

OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF

JAMAICA...CUBA...AND HAITI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS

A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI

[Iceberg]

Recon are still on course atm to take a low level look at him today.

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL

INVEST NEAR 16.ON 77.0W AT 23/1800Z.

This should tell us whether any kind of LLCC is there.

ECM yet again picks up on the system and even has it has a high end TS at the 144 range, later on in the run it performs a worse case scenario for the GULF states is a High end CAT4/5 that sits just off shore pumping the LA New Orleans region with it's NW Quadrant.

GFDL also takes it to a CAT 3 at 144Z in a very similar position.

It would be very rare for ECM to be this far out, given it's consistance and it is IMO the best model at long rang forecasting of hurricanes.

The big questions are where are the centres/centre ?, is a closed circulation evident ?. how will the centre interact.

I have to admit atm I don't think they will interact until inflow and outflow become important to intensity and thats not normally until the system is a TS.

The 72.5W system looks by far the best to be, I you really need a good 4 or 5 looped clear visual shots to really determine it.

Anyway very slow moving over the next 48 hrs and plenty of time for things to change.

[picog]

Is that storm virtually on top of the BP ex-rig?

[Iceberg]

Yep for 24 hrs. Now would be a good time to sell BP shares before the Markets get "wind" of it, maybe even short the share price. Not that this is financial advice of course.

[summer blizzard]

000

NOUS42 KNHC 221500

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1100 AM EDT TUE 22 JUNE 2010

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JUNE 2010

TCPOD NUMBER.....10-022

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF JAMAICA)

FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70

A. 23/1800Z

B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST

C. 23/1330Z

D. 17.0N 77.5W

E. 23/1700Z TO 23/2100Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71

A. 24/0600Z

B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE

C. 24/0100Z

D. 17.5N 79.5W

E. 24/0400Z TO 24/0830Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY

FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

Recon in now, not sure what its reporting though.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd-l.jpg

Middle centre has taken over, there is strong convection over the centre however the system is highly disorganised at the moment, though it does have a clear circulation.

At a push, i'd say it has the nessasary windspeeds to be declared TD1.

000

URNT11 KNHC 111811

97779 18054 41289 94018 30500 17025 08059 /3180

41930

RMK AF306 0209A CYCLONE OB 02

SWS = 25 KTS

Recon has recorded 25 knots, 93L will become Tropical Depression 1 in the next advisory!