Convective Outlook

[Coast]

Please chat about any convective potential from March 11th onwards here!

[Coast]

ESTOFEX have a forecast area along the extreme East coast of the UK for today:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 11 Mar 2010 06:00 to Fri 12 Mar 2010 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 10 Mar 2010 20:38

Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A very cold situation has evolved across Europe given a polar trough centred over the north Mediterranean Sea. A strong mid-level jet is pushed towards Africa and affects Turkey during the period. At low levels, low pressure systems will spread eastward over north-western Africa, the central Mediterranean, and Turkey. An additional low yields another cold air outbreak over Scandinavia. The air over most of Europe including the Mediterranean is characterized by low-level mixing ratios of about 2 to 5 g/kg. This dry boundary layer limits the potential of deep moist convection. The best potential of isolated thunder is forecast in the range of the mid-level trough centres across the North Sea and the central Mediterranean, where some showers may produce isolated lightning. To the south-west and south-east, rather moist low-level air exceeding 8 g/kg is located over Morocco and initially over the Aegean Sea, where it is replaced by drier air masses in the wake of a cold front during the day. Quite stable lapse rates limit the potential of thunderstorms and stratiform precipitation is expected to be most likely in these regions.

UKASF and TORRO have nothing, I can't see it myself, here's what the charts have for today:

Perhaps a little bit more chance tomorrow?

[ZONE 51]

new thread and a new convective outlook cool!

starting tomorow friday we could see some hail and maybe some thundery activity across england/wales i can upload data later when i have more time unless someone else can or does before then thanks.

could see some thundery action next wk to getting milder and moister next week

[Harry]

new thread and a new convective outlook cool!

starting tomorow friday we could see some hail and maybe some thundery activity across england/wales i can upload data later when i have more time unless someone else can or does before then thanks.

could see some thundery action next wk to getting milder and moister next week

That's what I thought re: next week. Nick F explained though that we are still too early in the season to get anything of interesting from southerly wind flows, which kind of makes sense to me. The continent is still cold (Wintry showers in Majorca I heard on the radio this morning!!!) and so too the sea temperatures. Therefore, all is relatively stable for anything to get really interesting. That said, it doesn't rule out convective opportunities totally, but if we are to get excited by southerly airflows/plumes, then ideally mid to late April onwards would be the time to start getting interested.

Edited March 11, 2010 by Harry

[ZONE 51]

That's what I thought re: next week. Nick F explained though that we are still too early in the season to get anything of interesting from southerly wind flows, which kind of makes sense to me. The continent is still cold (Wintry showers in Majorca I heard on the radio this morning!!!) and so too the sea temperatures. Therefore, all is relatively stable for anything to get really interesting. That said, it doesn't rule out convective opportunities totally, but if we are to get excited by southerly airflows/plumes, then ideally mid to late April onwards would be the time to start getting interested.

yes i agree with this , we wont see any plumes for a while , theirs the chance of late snow i think alto signs of milder air at times and we will know when the storm season really starts, cant wait, i really enjoyed last year reading the convective threads but wasnt a member then.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Also, re. getting milder and moister next week, moist tropical maritime airmasses actually tend to be quite stable: in a Tm airmass you really need strong surface heating (whether over Britain or over France followed by an import via southerlies). For convection at this time of year we're better off looking at polar & arctic maritime airmasses.

[ZONE 51]

Please chat about any convective potential from March 11th onwards here!

cool animation!

Also, re. getting milder and moister next week, moist tropical maritime airmasses actually tend to be quite stable: in a Tm airmass you really need strong surface heating (whether over Britain or over France followed by an import via southerlies). For convection at this time of year we're better off looking at polar & arctic maritime airmasses.

im learning all the time

[Thundery wintry showers]

I should add that indeed, tomorrow's northerly (an arctic maritime blast) looks like producing a fair amount of shower activity over eastern England. Probably not cold enough for snow, but rain & hail likely, thunderstorms an outside bet though IMHO.

[Nick F]

Have issued a brief storm forecast for tomorrow, think E Anglia and SE England most likely to get chance of hail and odd rumble of thunder:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

18z GFS shows upper cold pool moving south down east side of UK - which will steepen lapse rates - insolation will then aid allow cbs to develop - some low end MLCAPE (~100 j/kg) showing:

Cold pool/upper low moving S Friday morning - steepening lapse rates:

MLCAPE:

Might be worth having the camera handy tomorrow.

[Guest]

Have issued a brief storm forecast for tomorrow, think E Anglia and SE England most likely to get chance of hail and odd rumble of thunder:

http://www.netweathe...onvective;sess=

18z GFS shows upper cold pool moving south down east side of UK - which will steepen lapse rates - insolation will then aid allow cbs to develop - some low end MLCAPE (~100 j/kg) showing:

Cold pool/upper low moving S Friday morning - steepening lapse rates:

MLCAPE:

Might be worth having the camera handy tomorrow.

Nothing here in Scarborough this morning, so indeed perhaps EA and the SE are set for a rumble or three. Big fat raindrops though in an earlier shower! Looking at the MetO radar there is nothing heavy on the way here atm.

[Coast]

Have issued a brief storm forecast for tomorrow, think E Anglia and SE England most likely to get chance of hail and odd rumble of thunder:

Interesting, thanks Nick.

ESTOFEX have nothing forecast for Europe today, neither do TORRO or UKASF. Here are some indications (or not):

Look like East Anglia and Essex up for anything today. If I had the day off and was looking for action, I might place myself off the M11 at Harlow by lunchtime!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Surprisingly (especially after seeing the radar, which has a rather showery look to it) it's dull and drizzly here in Norwich at the moment- not very photogenic at all! It looks the same over South Shields where there's been some very heavy precipitation at times according to the radar.

[NL]

Surprisingly (especially after seeing the radar, which has a rather showery look to it) it's dull and drizzly here in Norwich at the moment- not very photogenic at all! It looks the same over South Shields where there's been some very heavy precipitation at times according to the radar.

Can confirm ,dull, overcast and quite 'breezy'. Earlier there were some heavy rain showers intermittent by heavy drizzle the kind that soaks you from head to foot..!! Turning quite misty now but also brightening and drying up. Dont think the sun will be making much of an appearance judging by the visible satellite images.

http://www.sat24.com/gb

Yesterday's forecast for possible storm activity down the east coast nearly came into fruition but alas nothing materialized, but there was some dark low base Cb's out at sea i observed.

Edited March 12, 2010 by NL

[ZONE 51]

1st storm forecast of the new season

the next few hrs looking like some good potential for downpours hail thunder even an storm as said in the storm forecast

[Harry]

Two sferics detected on IOWW earlier around W East Anglia area, while NW radar detected lightning near St Albans

Any reports?

[SteveB]

A couple of showers passing through, nice to get a bit of rain & looks like a few more to come.

Been very dry for the last couple of weeks.

Edited March 12, 2010 by SteveB

[Harry]

Sun popping out from time to time here - that should help!

Also, feels markedly milder here today (AT LAST!!!!) - though as Peter Gibbs said, its a rare occurrence where relatively speaking, a northerly will make it feel much more pleasant and raise the temperatures!!

Anyway - back on topic - big showers pleeeease

EDIT - Unless we get another wave, I think we've had our lot in London now (of which was virtually nothing in C London)

Edited March 12, 2010 by Harry

[Coast]

Two sferics detected on IOWW earlier around W East Anglia area

You can see how desperate we are to get back into the UK storm season!!!!

[ZONE 51]

some active downpours just missed my patch now to the south and sw of london area , further shrs are developing further north and nw heading towards se so a risk yet of some developments

latest radar

[Coast]

latest radar

Just arriving here, mostly sharp rain showers, no thunder or hail.

[Andy Bown]

You can see how desperate we are to get back into the UK storm season!!!!

LOL yes, and I have got excited about 3 short lived hail showers - the first of which started to turn the ground white - and have made this the most interesting weather day since Weds 10 Feb!!

[kold weather]

Pretty good shower just came over Chichester in the last hour, radar shows it strengthening as it moves out to sea.

Also heavier showers generally over SE though these aren't quite so potent as the ones that have just cleared into the channel, and even more moderate showers are currently over central Midlands and Northern England, stretching down in isolated fashion to the west country.

Still its good to see some convection even if it is not the most potent stuff and not much in the way of lightning either.

[Callie]

Sharp shower and hail here!

[Harry]

You can see how desperate we are to get back into the UK storm season!!!!

You should have seen me when we had that rogue crack of thunder last month - I was beside myself, lol!!

Bring on our 'storm season'

[Jane Louise]

You should have seen me when we had that rogue crack of thunder last month - I was beside myself, lol!!

Bring on our 'storm season'

Hear hear Harry. Here's to Storm season.

I caught a few unexpected heavy showers today I'm hoping this is just the start of a brilliant storm season to come.