Convective Outlook

[Andy Bown]

Today's set up and conditions remind me of June 29/30 last year with a complicated front trailing the West and a Southerly flow bringing the best conditions to the SE regions (though with risk of rain) and the worst to the West, with the in between (like here) having a mixture of rain and warm (hot on that occasion) sunny breaks.

[Harry]

Yep agree with that Ian

It certainly feels and looks thundery today, temp when I left at 10am was 14c in SE Essex so something could crop up tonight. It would Beat my earliest mini Plume scenario but about 3 days, 27th March a few years back had a great MCS Come up from France. Last years first 2 Plumes were the 15th & 16th April!

Paul S

I remember last years two plumes very well - especially so as I was spoilt on two consecutive nights. The downside of course was that I saw nothing after that until early June.

Interestingly, Estofex have upgraded their forecast to now include a relatively narrow strip of Western France, the T'storm zone stopping at the N Coast(ish). This of course will back up indications of some heavier precip moving North later this evening. As we know the good old Channel is still v cold after the bitter winter, which I would have thought be looking to slaughter anything of interest heading this way, unless in the unlikely event anything which forms is elevated in nature.

Edited March 24, 2010 by Harry

[Harry]

Just been out for a cig and I have to say, it does feel rather thundery. Didn't so much this morning, but right now there's spits of rain in the air, and in general feels rather clammy.

Could be an interesting evening, especially if at any point we get some clearing skies (though have to say at the moment this seems a bit unlikely) - could give some views of any lightning especially as any storms move towards the channel.

[Nick F]

Blue skies and blazing sunshine here now and muggy. After overcast and heavy rain at lunch time.

Interesting cell been progressing NNE across NW France this last hour, just south of Cherbourg Penninsula right now:

Some cells popping up further SE too now

This evening we should see a moistening plume advecting into SE England from France destabilise as height falls spread in from the west with appraoch of upper trough, could get the odd rumble with any heavy shower, though any storms likely to be elevated - with a stable boundary layer present today.

Storm forecast: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=c2ca43b60ad8d2b443ac99adccedcf74

[Harry]

Been watching these myself - getting all exciting again now as our time of year approaches.

Stunning weather here at the moment - blue albeit slightly hazy skies, feeling warm and ever increasingly muggy in the sun - lovely!!

[Lightningboy]

That does look like potent cell and looks interesting.

Not sure if im in the right place but feels a little muggy here at the moment jsut wondering if there will be any kind thundery weather here tonight as well.

[Coast]

Well, some interesting stuff from todays 12Z Herkymoo sounding, very slim (no CAPE) but worth repeating here:

[kold weather]

Gotta admit this is quite early for such a set-up, pretty interesting to see though it does seem quite east based sadly!

Thats quite an interesting cell there Paul, I'm watching it very closely as it moves up the plume NNE as the frontal system. As Paul said things should be starting to destablise at the middle levels during the eveing hours which will help, though I wouldn't look too France just yet given how colod the channel SST's are, any storm over there will have a very harsh trip across the channel, but elevated systems are something to watch out for.

This certainly has snuck up though, at least to me!

ps, Coast where di you get that sounding from, I remember using it in the past but lost the link!

Edited March 24, 2010 by kold weather

[Thundery wintry showers]

I expected a dull damp drizzly "Atlantic" type of day here in Norwich and when I got up this morning, the dull drizzly conditions I was greeted with didn't change my opinion. But since mid-morning it's been a classic "Spanish plume" type of day with hazy sunshine for the most part, a high of 17C (well above the late March normal for Norwich of 10 or 11C) and now has clouded over with rain from altocumulus castllanus structures.

I'm not expecting any thunder from this but isolated reports, particularly towards Kent and Sussex, strike me as being quite probable.

[Coast]

Coast where did you get that sounding from, I remember using it in the past but lost the link!

www.skystef.be :lol:

I'm not expecting any thunder from this but isolated reports, particularly towards Kent and Sussex, strike me as being quite probable.

That would tie in with the local BBC TV forecast for us.

Channel SST's and other wave/sea observations here (click on the place of interest and view charts): www.channelcoast.org/data_management

Currently 6.5 DgC off Pevensey Bay :wub:

[staplehurst]

Saw the first wasp of the year here today, along with some storm flies. Must be humid!

According to latest GFS, Kent & Sussex need to keep an eye on the Cherbourg peninsula area mainly for any possible action later on...

Edited March 24, 2010 by staplehurst

[Harry]

Speaking of which, we've had the daffodils out for over a week now (some, not all), some HUGE bumblebees out on mission, the first honey bees (quite peculiar looking I have to say) along with the occasional wasp.

The parakeets are out in force too enjoying the milder weather.

Back to the weather, getting rather exciting about the small chances later

[Coast]

According to latest GFS, Kent & Sussex need to keep an eye on the Cherbourg peninsula area mainly for any possible action later on...

We may need to keep an eye on here then:

www.ville-cherbourg.fr

[staplehurst]

Showers appear to be exploding over the English Channel, and over the Cherbourg Peninsula! Intense radar echoes too :wub:

Just coming into the range of the public ATD, some strikes detected.

it's more West Sussex/Surrey/East Hampshire likely to get that big one.

Edited March 24, 2010 by staplehurst

[Guest FireStorm]

Cell near Paddock Wood and Brighton too.. showers over SE Kent (NetWeather Radar)

[Bluebreezer54]

^^ Lets hope so. He seems to be in the firing line at the moment.

[Callie]

Oh had some heavy downpours here since about 7.15pm

[Coast]

Yeah, some very heavy rainfall heading towards Eastbourne. Coast may report back on the conditions around there soon. :lol:

Well I was heavily involved with another passion in my life at the time - food!!!! It did bucket down but no thunder or lightning. Still a great intro so early in the season, let's hope it's as memorable in 2010 as the snow we had in the last few months!

I'll start off my little look at the current information with the last (12z) sounding from Camborne:

Not inspiring but still remote chances or the beginning of something?.

ESTOFEX have this for today:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 25 Mar 2010 06:00 to Fri 26 Mar 2010 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 24 Mar 2010 23:42

Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

An intense cyclonic vortex is situated NW of the Bay of Biscay, steering the flow over W-Europe. Embedded in this SW-erly flow are numerous disturbances, assisting in shower/thunderstorm development over W/SW-Europe. A weakening upper low over SE-Europe also fosters a few thunderstorms, whereas high pressure dominates in-between and over east-central Europe.

DISCUSSION

... France (daytime hours) ...

EZMWF and GFS agree well in a progressive SW-erly flow pattern over France during the forecast. A short-wave over the Bay of Biscay around noon affects the central/northern parts of France thereafter during peak time heating. Attendant UVV maximum affects mainly NW France/S-UK and fades somewhat to the SE. Also, best isentropic lift with this feature will be confined to the sharpest cyclonic height curvature to the north, so no thick cirrus shield is forecast over central France during the afternoon. Therefore, temporarily insolation is probable. Bound to the best mid-/upper energy, a surface cold front races to the north over NW-France and S-UK, to the NE over north-central France and trails more or less to the east/southeast over central France. The following storm coverage is therefore forecast for

SW-UK:

Main focus will be the shallow warm sector, which covers SW-UK between 12-16Z.LL mixing ratios are modest at best, but enhanced IPV values and modest mid-level lapse rates, plus crossing short wave yield some low-end MUCAPE/SBCAPE with an isolated thunderstorm risk. In respect of ingredient-based forecasting method, no organized thunderstorm is expected with gusty winds and marginal hail the main hazard. However, degree of insolation has to be monitored for better LL CAPE build-up and an isolated tornado risk due to good LL shear.

UKASF are on site rebuild and TORRO have no forecast yet for today. Here's a look at the big charts:

Latest SatRep:

Devon, Cornwall and Dorset up through to South Wales today folks?

[Nick F]

Upper low to the SW of the UK drags in colder air aloft around the low from the SW this evening steepening lapse rates - more especially towards SW England

... so this evening/tonight heavy showers look to develop from the SW across SW England and S Wales - hail and thunder look possible too in the cyclonic and increasingly unstable SW flow.

Tomorrow, looks like heavy showers will develop more widely across England and Wales, as colder air continues to advect NE aloft around the low to the SW. GFS indicates hail and thunder most likely towards eastern England in the afternoon ... though I don't think it will be exclusive to this area.

[Jane Louise]

Oh, fingers crossed.If I'm lucky I may see something:D

[Coast]

Oh, fingers crossed.If I'm lucky I may see something:D

None of us could bare it if you didn't get some significant storms this year Jane Louise!

Good luck :lol:

[SteveB]

Fingers crossed indeed, would be nice to see some convective showers.

Currently dull with very little sunshine. I am guessing this needs to improve if we are to see convective showers later.

[Jane Louise]

None of us could bare it if you didn't get some significant storms this year Jane Louise!

Good luck

I'm sure 2010 is my year Lol.:lol:

[Harry]

Some sferics detected across the SW.

Rain rapidly intensifying across N France/Channel, heading towards C, S and SW England.

Could be a very interesting day for some, though I fear I am too far East today

Fun radar watching though

[Marcus_surfer]

Some sferics detected across the SW.

Rain rapidly intensifying across N France/Channel, heading towards C, S and SW England.

Could be a very interesting day for some, though I fear I am too far East today

Fun radar watching though

Looking good at the moment! Quite heavy rainfall pushing in now, don't know how far this will push north though, it's making slow progress!