Convective Outlook

[Coast]

Nice if it brings a rumble or two. Heading my way for lunch?

[The PIT]

Some torrential falls across southern and south-western coasts, and chances for lightning should increase within the next few hours. Though as I said yesterday, I think this evening is when hail and lightning seem more likely as cold upper air is introduced.

As for tomorrow, going on the latest GFS, I would agree with Nick in that eastern England has a somewhat better chance of seeing hail or lightning given the timing of cold upper air arriving, since the coldest air and steeper lapse rates will be situated over eastern England during mid afternoon, and also given less cloudcover over this region, this should promote better convection. Overall, a showery day tomorrow - heavy showers widespread across the country with a risk of thunder and lightning in any active showers, but the risk increases further east.

Interesting lunchtime forecast said the further east you are the most likely you are to stay dry. The rain at the moment to the south is now get getting less intense. These things do build up then go down again. Plenty of warm sun down further north though.

[staplehurst]

Interesting line of showers over Channel, some heavy rainfall in those though no sferics yet.

[Harry]

Interesting line of showers over Channel, some heavy rainfall in those though no sferics yet.

Really? Hell of a lot of sferics being detected at the moment on the NW radar from those showers across the Channel/Northern France.

They are heading due North at the moment so some areas of S England could be in the luck in the next few hours unless the channel destroys them...fingers crossed they dont. They do seem to be lining up also.

[staplehurst]

Really? Hell of a lot of sferics being detected at the moment on the NW radar from those showers across the Channel/Northern France.

They are heading due North at the moment so some areas of S England could be in the luck in the next few hours unless the channel destroys them...fingers crossed they dont. They do seem to be lining up also.

I was referring to the ATD network, but yes there are sferics on there now

[Paul Sherman]

I might be proved wrong but the Showers over the Cherbourg Peninsula are going to have a pretty tough time of surviving the journey, better chances would be from a Straight South Easterly feed and only 22 Miles of Channel to cross much like last 16/17th April.

Let's see how the brutal channel deals with em

[Andy Bown]

I would expect the showers/storms to go the same way as the main band of rain, that being the heaviest rain falls on or near to the South coast with rates easing quite quickly as they move inland. However after a few dull hours of showery rain, the sun has shone recently so there is some heating energy around between the main band and the showers.

[BlueHedgehog074]

I have my fingers tightly crossed for seeing at least one shower with hail in it tommorrow, although to be honest I don't really mind if that didn't happen. I get the impression, however, that most areas will be seeing some rather heavy showers tommorrow.

I suppose it will be interesting to see how the showers keep their energy as they head towards the East. I remember once going on holiday to Norfolk and how most of the showers that arose had hail and thunder in them. I guess it must be, like some people have said, that this was due to some very cold high-up temperatures.

[kold weather]

Yeah without a doubt Paul, the conditions really aren't too good for systems surviving the channel. That being said there is some decent forcing aloft and the cells are merging into stright line features, with some decent returns on the radar now showing as the system heads towards SC.England.

Its quite interesting to see fronts/troughs all power up in exactly the same spot over and over again looking at the radar then slam into the Portsmouth-Southampton region.

Anyway I'll keep you all reported on what the convective line brings to Chichester, should be here in the next hour I'd have thought.

I wouldn't be surprised by the way to see a couple of reports of lightning but I suspect the channel will drain that element out of the cells, esp at this time of year...still not a bad set-up really for March!

Edited March 25, 2010 by kold weather

[Rustynailer]

The thunder and lightning survived the crossing 6 claps of thunder and visible forked lightning. Seagulls going mad atm

The small storm is heading North.

Russ

[Harry]

The thunder and lightning survived the crossing 6 claps of thunder and visible forked lightning. Seagulls going mad atm

The small storm is heading North.

Russ

LUCKY YOU!!!

[Paul Sherman]

Excellent News Russ! Heads up for Darren further along the coast!

[staplehurst]

Ooh sferics on the eastern side of the Channel leaving France fingers crossed!

[A.J]

The thunder and lightning survived the crossing 6 claps of thunder and visible forked lightning. Seagulls going mad atm

The small storm is heading North.

Russ

HURRAH!!....After months and months of tedious winter weather crud, there's something for us summery/stormy type peeps to get excited about!...Plenty of sferics around in the channel..C'mon Russ, get your camera out and lets see the first lightning piccies of the year!

[Andy Bown]

Blimey, 15.40 radar shows a cell with 200-250mm per hour rate slap bang over the IOW!!

[Joey.G]

Blimey, 15.40 radar shows a cell with 200-250mm per hour rate slap bang over the IOW!!

Yup, they grew pretty fast too. Seems the interesting activity today is a bit further East than first forecast, fingers crossed it propagates a little further west and survives long enough for me and JL! Nothing but some rain and a few interesting clouds here so far today

[Paul]

For those who haven't seen it yet - here are the storms as shown on the v5 version of the netweather radar:

[BlueHedgehog074]

Man, there is lots of extremely intense precipitation being injected into that almost banana-shaped shower around the far South of England.

[staplehurst]

warm spells of milky sunshine here, fingers crossed.

[kold weather]

Excellent News Russ! Heads up for Darren further along the coast!

Getting dark here now, though radar suggests the line is starting to weaken, though still some big returns just north of Southampton, hopefully the eastern part of the line doesn't weaken too much in the next 15 mins as it arrives.

[Harry]

Skies starting to brigten a wee bit!

If the line of storms kept that path (and intensity) the SE may even get something. Though with reduced CAPE levels across us (typical) there may be little for them to tap into here.

Fingers are nevertheless well and truly crossed

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Thunder, fork lightning , mega heavyrain ... the whole works. Scared the living day lights outta me.street lights on.

Edited March 25, 2010 by *Stormforce~beka*

[Coast]

Sorry folks, going to take one post to be a little bit selfish!

This isn't conclusive in either way, but sets the scene in the atmosphere at lunchtime in Herkymoo:

[Lightningboy]

WOHOO im so happy now, had quite a lot of thunder and lightning on this part of the island, all CGS and loud thunder, there still distant rumbling going on and so good hear the first proper storm of the year

[coldfingers]

Just gone really dark, very heavy rain and strong gusty winds. just one flash of lightning and clap of thunder so far.

Very fast moving clouds though.