Convective Outlook

[Stuart]

Good luck the ones down south

my turn will come sometime

Edited March 12, 2010 by Stuart

[sunny scunny]

Plenty of showers here today, and it's just started chucking it down again as i type.

[tcc]

The best thing today apart from the heavy showers was the fantastic cloudscapes!

Reminded me of Brens Florida chases! http://www.1whitley.co.uk/chaseflorida.htm

That always gets the juices flowing in respect to storms!!

Taken from this excellent site: http://www.eots.co.uk/chase/chase.htm

Edited March 12, 2010 by tcc

[CardiffStorm]

I know its a long way off but what do people think about next Monday 22nd. Just had a flick through the charts and CAPE & LI dont look too bad.

[Coast]

Have been focusing on this period as well, and it doesn't look too bad. But as you've already said, it's quite a long way away.

Too far away for me to get exited yet (-72 hours and I'll have a look).

Just for info, we have opened a general weather banter thread here for all the conversation that doesn't fit into specific threads: netweather.tv/weather-banter

[SteveB]

Any news on possible storm activity?

Looks very unsettled this weekend

[Costa Del Fal]

Looking possible for the odd storm or two in places next week with some Cape, negative LI, steep lapse rates. TT index good but other factors poor so any storms wouldnt be severe.

Edited March 17, 2010 by Blizzards

[Nick F]

Yes, really need there to be some cold polar air aloft for there to be any storm potential this time of year. Warm air advection aloft at 500mb from the S and SW for the rest of the week and over the weekend looks to prohibit any thunderstorm potential, though Atlantic fronts will bring dynamic rainfall at times. It's only really into early part of next week that we start to see colder 500mb temps move in with the upper low from the west that we start to see lapse rates steepen sufficiently for possible storm potential, more particularly in the west perhaps.

[CardiffStorm]

As far as I can see, the latest run is even worse. I think anybody outside of Ireland has no chance really.

[CardiffStorm]

Oh yes the end of next week doesn't look too bad, im certainly not going to get my hopes up though lol.

[Harry]

While seeing the CAPE/LI indexes looking good is rather exciting, I really think we are foolish to get our hopes up until we get to late April.

Then, let fun and games begin!!

[Guest FireStorm]

TORRO convective discussion issued http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

S Scotland

W Scotland

NW Eire

N Ireland

THREATS

Wind gusts of 45-55mph; hail; isolated weak tornadoes; isolated CG lightning

Also, Any registered Skywarn UK spotters - They have an Amber alert out also - http://www.skywarn.org.uk/alert.html

[Stuart]

Nice i could see some then but my luck i wont

[Guest FireStorm]

CAPE shouldn't be too much of a concern to be honest as long as other determining factors can come into play. The Birmingham tornado was using 300j/kg and any storm will have the potential to produce severe weather be it hail, convective gusts, FC's or tornadoes.

[Paul]

There are certainly some bright echo's on the radar over western scotland at the moment, rain rates of 25mm an hour +, which could also be indicative of some hail..

[Ross B]

The line of showers is probably at its weakest here so there hasn't been much here this afternoon. Nice to see the convective cloud back though :lol:

[Harry]

Interesting clouds around here as the front approaches - some of the wispy lenticular clouds you sometimes get on the leading edge of heavy rain bearing clouds are present.

Obviously, the 'good stuff' I'm not expecting, but its certainly nice to see some threatening looking skies back after the relatively dry, harsh winter :lol:

[Coast]

I'm not sure all the conditions are right yet for some sparks to fly this week. True the CAPE does look to be interesting later on Thursday, but towards the end of the run it seems to back off a little.

I'll wait and see Thursday morning with the overnight Camborne sounding

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, it's the "returning polar maritime" scenario that I discussed a couple of times recently in the Model Output thread, which at last looks set to come to fruition.

Most of Thursday's rain looks like coming from a vigorous frontal system which will move north during the afternoon, and in my experience those fronts tend not to produce much thunder or dramatic cloudscapes at this time of year- we tend to be looking at a few hours or so of heavy rain. The showers following behind are a different matter though, and Thursday does indeed look like being a thundery day over large areas of France. I think Friday could well see some hail/thunder reports coming in across central and southern England, with the front having cleared a long way north and the showers packing in behind.

[Supacell]

Although i am not expecting any storms this far north on Thurs/Fri it is still good to see the mention of storms and convective forecasts starting to trickle out.

Heres to a good storm season this year and many successful storm chases for those of us that partake in it :winky:

[Costa Del Fal]

Latest GFS looks good for the risk of a storm across the Midlands on Thursday. Could change though.

[Coast]

Thursday and Friday a period to keep an eye on

Our local weather girl (morning Kaye!!) did mention the possibility of thunder in the region today. Not quite sure where that was coming from but it is her full time job and who am I to argue!!?? :lol:

I'm still waiting for more up to date info on tomorrow, but later Thursday into Friday for more SW parts is slowly shaping up for a possibility:

[Harry]

There has been talk on the London radios today, of it being a very mild day (poss 17C+) with increasing risk of some heavy showers, increasing risk through the evening period.

All I can presume based on this, and maybe where Kaye is coming from, is that the heavy/thundery precip expected to develop over France will move our way.

Other than that...who knows :lol:

[Thundery wintry showers]

I've just seen indications of it on the latest GFS: a zone of heavy convective precipitation set to move up from France tonight, which didn't appear on earlier runs. It has brightened up in Norwich and certainly does look like the kind of day that would give thunderstorms if it was later in the season.

[Paul Sherman]

Yep agree with that Ian

It certainly feels and looks thundery today, temp when I left at 10am was 14c in SE Essex so something could crop up tonight. It would Beat my earliest mini Plume scenario but about 3 days, 27th March a few years back had a great MCS Come up from France. Last years first 2 Plumes were the 15th & 16th April!

Paul S