Model Output Discussion

[Cheese Rice]

yes its all great but the downgrade is annoying! I still think that temperatures here will be higher, they always are, but not by much.

It's hardly a downgrade, it's to be expected that GFS and all weather models will under/over estimate the temperatures 5+ days out, I'm sure you are fully aware of this so I don't really know why you are so let-down. Also the weather station that you use is likely to be wrong as there is very little chance that you always experience the lowest and highest temperatures, more-so as your location isn't special.

Anyway it looks pretty spot on for a warm spell to approach but mainly for central and western areas, eastern parts look to be plagued by cloud which will affect the temperatures significantly, I wouldn't be surprised to see below average maxes especially along coastal areas. Central/western areas look best for plenty of sunshine, temperatures look pretty decent, I can't really see maxes of 25.c more like 19-22.c for most.

[summer blizzard]

ECWMF12z concurs with the GFS upto 216 hours out (semi-relaibale timeframe), brings in the 8C isotherm, so 22C-24C looks the mark, though it brings in a northerly at 216 hours out.

Europe vs America!

[frostyjoe]

It's hardly a downgrade, it's to be expected that GFS and all weather models will under/over estimate the temperatures 5+ days out, I'm sure you are fully aware of this so I don't really know why you are so let-down. Also the weather station that you use is likely to be wrong as there is very little chance that you always experience the lowest and highest temperatures, more-so as your location isn't special.

Anyway it looks pretty spot on for a warm spell to approach but mainly for central and western areas, eastern parts look to be plagued by cloud which will affect the temperatures significantly, I wouldn't be surprised to see below average maxes especially along coastal areas. Central/western areas look best for plenty of sunshine, temperatures look pretty decent, I can't really see maxes of 25.c more like 19-22.c for most.

acutally its a meto station, i've noticed that its for warmer and colder than the ballypatrick one, ballypatrick is only 2 miles from sea and high up.. and ballykelly is right on lough foyle would that have an effect????

[Thundery wintry showers]

A "switch-around" has recurred in the ECM FI, showing a warm sunny HP spell followed by a northerly, though due to how late in the spring it is, anything of interest in terms of wintry precipitation, or hail/thunder (this would be more likely with a W component to the flow or strong cyclonic element) would be significant odds against I reckon. GFS 12Z meanwhile does away with that northerly that appeared in its 06Z, keeping high pressure on top of us.

One problem with Britain being an island is that unless the HP is right on top of us, or to the east, we always need to watch for cloud- too far south and the north & west gets cloudy westerlies, too far north and the east get cloudy easterlies. I think the GFS 12Z, except for a time out in FI, has the high too far south to allow the progged easterlies to bring in much cloud, but I've seen these highs progged further north in successive runs before in these situations.

In the meantime it's looking odds-on that at least two or three warm sunny dry days, and probably more, will be experienced over a large majority of the country towards the end of the coming week. Some parts, particularly the SE, may become sunny and warm before that.

I don't think the GFS necessarily overdoes temperatures in these situations but what it often does do is overdo the extent to which warm airmasses take hold- warm extremes tend to downgrade as we get closer to the time just as cold extremes do. I don't think many places will breach 25C but on the other hand I think most places will comfortably surpass 20C.

[Optimus Prime]

Looks like HP will dominate the second half. Very like it could end up as an exceptionally sunny, dry and warm second half to May.

[Frosty.]

A mini heatwave looking more likely with every run with the second half of next week including next weekend seeing temps reach their peak at around 25c but generally 22c seems a good figure for many areas by next wed/thurs but the upward temperature curve begins on monday and blossoms by around midweek into the best spell of the spring so far, nationwide. It will probably subside eventually with cooler NE'ly winds and more unsettled weather later but thats a long way off to be bothering about.

[Stormyking]

I could be completely wrong here but it looks to me that at about T+288 it shows some sort of plume can anybody help me by saying if this is a plume or not?

[Stormyking]

Cheers mate, most of our storms for this time onwards until august time are mainly elevated and yeh I know it wont be there on the 00z but thought it would be interesting to point out and now I have learned fully what a plume is now which is why I posted it .

Anyway also interesitng to see stuff like this even if they dont stay on there for long

Edited May 15, 2010 by Stormyking

[Derp Patrol]

Cheers mate, most of our storms for this time onwards until august time are mainly elevated and yeh I know it wont be there on the 00z but thought it would be interesting to point out and now I have learned fully what a plume is now which is why I posted it .

Anyway also interesitng to see stuff like this even if they dont stay on there for long

Well next week will see the first real warmth of Spring - about time too, it's almost summer now!

It will definately be a pleasant change, some warmer nights too, probably 14C lows towards the end of next week in southern areas.

[Stormyking]

Well next week will see the first real warmth of Spring - about time too, it's almost summer now!

It will definately be a pleasant change, some warmer nights too, probably 14C lows towards the end of next week in southern areas.

Yup and am looking forward too it so I can get some fishing done

14c lows sounds good infact very good considering of what this spring has been like but yeh it is looking like a very nice spell of weather coming up indeed

Lets see what 00z brings tomorrow well today now so Night all

[rmc1987]

Temps look to be higher further West on Friday. Can't see us reaching 25c, haven't spotted it on GFS. Also in the past I've noticed temperatures on the GFS at this range end up lower on the day.

Edited May 16, 2010 by rmc1987

[Thundery wintry showers]

I saw the "first real warmth of Spring" type of comment on the front page as well, and I think it would be better described as "first real taste of Summer", and perhaps illustrates the elevated expectations of spring in the UK. Temperatures into the 20s Celsius are typical summer temperatures not spring temperatures. And as for us not having had any real warmth- we may not have had any in May so far, but April was warmer than average, had a couple of notable warm spells, and was one of the sunniest on record.

Will be interesting to see if tomorrow's runs continue to prolong the high pressure or go back to the ECM scenario of northerlies by T+216. GFS throws up a rather cold cloudy north-easterly for a time in the near reaches of FI but it doesn't last for long. Before that plenty of warm sunshine.

[Guest]

I saw the "first real warmth of Spring" type of comment on the front page as well, and I think it would be better described as "first real taste of Summer", and perhaps illustrates the elevated expectations of spring in the UK. Temperatures into the 20s Celsius are typical summer temperatures not spring temperatures. And as for us not having had any real warmth- we may not have had any in May so far, but April was warmer than average, had a couple of notable warm spells, and was one of the sunniest on record.

April in the UK can only be described as warm, it was a good bit warmer than average across the whole of the UK:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/

We had temps up to 19C here at times which is average for the height of summer.

As for next week, these two temperature charts show the differences possible with any "hot spell" in the UK with the north often seeing warmth for a day or so and then missing out:

[mushymanrob]

nice to see both the ecm and gfs agreeing that a spell of high pressure dominated weather will build slowly as the week progresses, resulting in possible high temps depending on the exact orientaion of the high. earlier on in the week however there are some front to contend with that will give cloudy conditions for a time. the fax shows 2 high level fronts over the country midweek which will cloud things up.

no real sign still on any decent precipitation, this morning is sunny and dry here in derby... weve missed the rain. we might get some on wednesday as a warm front crosses and the northwest will get more cloud and rain in the week before the high really kicks in next weekend.

[Frosty.]

A super ECM 00z run with high pressure taking full control and remaining close to the uk throughout, temps will respond by rising a degree or two each day until they hit 22-26c by next friday and the weekend, I would not be surprised if 80f is exceeded with southeast england being the hot spot.

[ANYWEATHER]

Looks as though high pressure will be building across the nation, but unfortunately a lot of moisture trapped underneath that ridge courtesy of some weak weather fronts as shown by the fax charts and the gfs. A cooler evolution is still shown by the models but not in the more reliable time frame!

[SP1986]

Perhaps we have got the general jist sorted out, not we just have to work out which model is leading the other models on a wild goose chase

[mushymanrob]

Perhaps we have got the general jist sorted out, not we just have to work out which model is leading the other models on a wild goose chase

indeed the generalgist is pretty much agreed upon, tiz the detail that needs to be comfirmed which of course wont happen until closer to the event. it might upgrade into a hot spell, more likely it will be just very pleasantly warm.

[Milhouse]

Absolutely superb ECM 00z, infact so are all the other models. The only disappointment is the fax charts that indicate there may be quite a lot of cloud trapped under the high later this week. However the northerly in the latter stages has virtually been eliminated maintaing the settled and increasingly warm theme throughout. The longer the high stays with us the better the chance of recording some very high temperatures.

[snowlover2009]

Just seen weather for the week ahead and i have to say all in all it looks brilliant for my location. they had us down like this:

monday 16c

tuesday 18c

wedenesday 19c

thursday 22c

friday 23c

that was manchestes weather, but the best warmth will be more east, so maybe a little warmer here hopefully.

I suppose it will feel warmer in the humidity and the strong sun and i think it will be warmer by a couple of degrees. they also had very little cloud over us, with just the odd specks for the week ahead inbetween the sky as well. No rain on us either havent had a dry may for some time and i have to say i can see nothing in the models to suggest that we will have a very wet summer, although i can imagine there will be some cool stages, but nothing cool in summer where it is below 13c.

Edited May 16, 2010 by snowlover2009

[summer blizzard]

Well, cenrtainly some great model outputs at the moment, with the BBC even going for 24C on friday.

In the reliable timeframe, tommorow (monday), and tuesday look like sunshine and cloud days with dead fronts over the UK, while wednesday and thursday to me look like seeing cloud in the morning being burnt off by the afternoon, and then friday looks the best day of the week with widespread sunshine and temperatures responding in the low to mid twenties.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1203.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

In the semi-relaibale timeframe (120 to 240 hours out), the GFS6z goes against what it was showing yesterday and the trend, in bringing in the northerly almost imidiately, though it does bring the high pressure back in FI, which goes against the ECWMF which continues yesterdays trend in not bringing the northerly at all, and the GEM model also supports the ECWMF.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

In summary, GFS6z looks to me like an outlier, saturday looks the warmest day with temperatures possibly as high as 26C, and the trend from both models until the GFS6z is for no northerly until at least day eleven.

[frostyjoe]

its not looking good for poor old scotland and ni just one or two days of 20c+ then back to 15c.. am getting sick of this....

[MP-R]

A generally uninspiring model output for weather but a super one if consistent settled and often warm weather is what you are after.

Personally I would prefer some rain before another length dry spell begins as there hasn't been much at all so far this month. There have been hardly any 'wet' showery airstreams whether it be Pm or rPm and no thundery spells either. All in all, this could turn out to be one of the most boring Mays on record for me. As long as the isobars have a northerly origin in this upcoming spell, the less interesting it is going to be.

On the plus side, this may help raise the CET quite considerably as it is certainly below average at the moment.

[Costa Del Fal]

its not looking good for poor old scotland and ni just one or two days of 20c+ then back to 15c.. am getting sick of this....

Well unfortunately your are always going to be more prone to cloudy, cool conditions than those down here but enjoy it while it lasts.

The models arent really agreeing much past next weekend yet. We could end up with the High staying in a favourable position or moviing west again to allow a Northerly in. The idea of the Northerly does seem to be less likely for the time being.

[frostyjoe]

Well unfortunately your are always going to be more prone to cloudy, cool conditions than those down here but enjoy it while it lasts.

The models arent really agreeing much past next weekend yet. We could end up with the High staying in a favourable position or moviing west again to allow a Northerly in. The idea of the Northerly does seem to be less likely for the time being.

Not another northernly i love cold but i'm getting sick of it as all it brings is cloud and rain its just CRAP!! I'm raging after looking at those models flipping one day of 22c big whoop.