Surviving Snow Patches

[Sleet30031972]

Some confusion here - unsurprising since the Arctic Hare (L. arcticus) is closely related to the Mountain Hare (L. timidus), and is still considered by some authorities to be a subspecies of it (see http://www.iucnredli...details/41274/0 ). To confuse matters still further, the name 'Arctic Hare' is sometimes used as an alternative name for the Mountain Hare.

But Firefly is right in saying that it is only L. timidus (correctly the Mountain Hare) that is found in Scotland, and that it is also found elsewhere in the north of the British Isles - most notably a subspecies in N. Ireland. L. arcticus is only found in Canada & its islands north of the treeline, and in Greenland. Most populations of L. timidus are stable and often abundant, and they are found throughout the north of Eurasia from Britain to Scandinavia to Siberia, and also further south in the Alps. They do not appear to be endangered (or anywhere near it) in Scotland.

The most important point, though, is that the presence or absence of snow is entirely irrelevant to their wellbeing, as they only have a white coat when there is snow present. They happily survive much of the year throughout their range with a brown or grey coat, and in Ireland - where they do not compete with the absent European Brown Hare (L. europaeus) - they largely live by choice at lower levels, and never acquire a white coat at all.

I cannot speak with any knowledge of other fauna, or the rare arctic flora of the Cairngorms - a strange and tenuous hangover from the last ice age. I suspect that a bit of skiing on odd remaining snow patches is of very minor significance when compared with the issues of a warming climate (allegedly - don't want to argue!), and less consistent snow retention at high altitude. An interesting article here, though, from 2006: http://www.independe...rms-426485.html .

But on reflection, Adam, I think your point about possible benefits in leaving the summer snow patches alone - especially if they are becoming rarer and frailer - is worth considering and indeed researching.

This is not correct. The mountain hare population in the Peak District have white coats throughout the winter whether there is snow cover or not (often/usually there isn't).

This is not correct. The mountain hare population in the Peak District have white coats throughout the winter whether there is snow cover or not (often/usually there isn't).

On reflection, perhaps we are both right? Perhaps the white coat of a mountain hare is triggered by snowfall but, when it melts, (which wouldn't happen in its 'normal range' - the species was introduced to the Peak District in the 19th century i believe), it remains white?

[stewfox]

Down to the real nitty-gritty now in terms of remaining snow! Single figures of snow patches now, and it'll be touch-and-go to see what survives and what doesn't. I'm still of the opinion that we'll only get one or two this year, but it really wouldn't surprise me if they all vanish..

Any change in the out look ?

[firefly]

Sorry for not updating this thread as often as I ought to!

The snow-patches are now getting very small, and only 7 persist.

Braeriach (Garbh Choire Mor): 2

Cairn Gorm (Ciste Mhearad): 1

Ben Nevis (various): 3

Aonach Beag: 1

You can see some recent snaps on my flickr account: http://www.flickr.com/photos/28183399@N03/collections/72157623776983597/

My gut feeling is that we'll get a couple of survivals, but nothing's guaranteed. Fingers crossed!

A nice picture of Pinnacles in Garbh Choire Mor, courtesy of Stuart Gordon. Taken on the 26th September. Quite a bit of new snow.

And here's Sphinx on the same day. The old snow you can see fell in late 2006. This is true of both photographs.

[picog]

Sorry for not updating this thread as often as I ought to!

The snow-patches are now getting very small, and only 7 persist.

Braeriach (Garbh Choire Mor): 2

Cairn Gorm (Ciste Mhearad): 1

Ben Nevis (various): 3

Aonach Beag: 1

You can see some recent snaps on my flickr account: http://www.flickr.co...57623776983597/

My gut feeling is that we'll get a couple of survivals, but nothing's guaranteed. Fingers crossed!

A nice picture of Pinnacles in Garbh Choire Mor, courtesy of Stuart Gordon. Taken on the 26th September. Quite a bit of new snow.

And here's Sphinx on the same day. The old snow you can see fell in late 2006. This is true of both photographs.

Wow, 2006? Is that correct?

[firefly]

Wow, 2006? Is that correct?

Indeed it is. At present, there are 4 patches in Scotland which date from late-2006: Aonach Beag, Sphinx (Garbh Choire Mor), Pinnacles (Garbh Choire Mor) and Observatory Gully (Ben Nevis). What may amaze you even more is that had you gone Garbh Choire Mor in Braeriach in July 1996 you would have been looking at snow that fell in 1959! And... had you gone to Ben Nevis in September 1933 you would have been able to see snow that had been there since before 1840...

Aonach Beag a few days ago. This is an example of the snow that fell in 2006 and has not yet melted. I think it will be lucky to make it this year...

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looks like our only real chance of many of those patches surviving is if we get an October like this:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1981/Rrea00119811012.gif

[Norrance]

Last year the lasting snows came to the high Cairngorms patches at Braeriach, [Garbh Coire Mohr] in early October and to the Nevis area in late October. Not looking so likely this year though and with the recent wet and mild weather the patches must have taken a real pounding. Only going to be the Garbh Coire Mohr patches left in the East shortly with the last on Cairngorm just about gone. Over in the West not much different and they are more exposed to warm south westerlies.

Possible that they will all go this year?

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Last year the lasting snows came to the high Cairngorms patches at Braeriach, [Garbh Coire Mohr] in early October and to the Nevis area in late October. Not looking so likely this year though and with the recent wet and mild weather the patches must have taken a real pounding. Only going to be the Garbh Coire Mohr patches left in the East shortly with the last on Cairngorm just about gone. Over in the West not much different and they are more exposed to warm south westerlies.

Possible that they will all go this year?

Which would be quite ironic given last winter in Scotland was a record-breaker for cold.

[Norrance]

Which would be quite ironic given last winter in Scotland was a record-breaker for cold.

Unfortunately in some ways the heavy snowfalls either came in with light winds or on Northerlies through to N'Easterlies so the snow built up on South / West facing slopes exposing the drifts to the sun and the prevailing wind and rain. It is a bit ironic that after some of the deepest snow on record that none may make it through to the Winter. Only about the 5/6th time that this has happened in the last hundred years but I think the third this decade.

[firefly]

Don't write them off just yet, chaps!

Whilst it is true that we're at a critical stage, there is still enough snow around for optimism. Sphinx patch at Garbh Choire Mor is largely unchanged from a week or so ago, and Ben Nevis has a couple of reasonably sized ones. As I write, Ciste Mhearad has now gone (it went today), leaving only Ben Nevis (3 there), Garbh Choire Mor (2 there) and Aonach Beag (probably still 1 there).

Of those, I'm fairly sure that one of the GCM ones will go (Pinnacles) in the next 2 weeks. Ben Nevis' snow is good for a wee while yet. All in all, I think it's 50/50 as to whether we'll have any survivals. As usual, if there is, it'll be Sphinx at Garbh Choire Mor. This particular patch has disappeared only 5 times in the last 100 years (1933, 1959, 1996, 2003 & 2006).

[Optimus Prime]

1996 was a record breaking year for loss of ice/snow for Scotland. Yet it was a Cold year nationally mainly due to the same conditions we're getting at the moment.

Edited October 5, 2010 by Optimus Prime

[stewfox]

Don't write them off just yet, chaps!

Whilst it is true that we're at a critical stage, there is still enough snow around for optimism. Sphinx patch at Garbh Choire Mor is largely unchanged from a week or so ago, and Ben Nevis has a couple of reasonably sized ones. As I write, Ciste Mhearad has now gone (it went today), leaving only Ben Nevis (3 there), Garbh Choire Mor (2 there) and Aonach Beag (probably still 1 there).

Of those, I'm fairly sure that one of the GCM ones will go (Pinnacles) in the next 2 weeks. Ben Nevis' snow is good for a wee while yet. All in all, I think it's 50/50 as to whether we'll have any survivals. As usual, if there is, it'll be Sphinx at Garbh Choire Mor. This particular patch has disappeared only 5 times in the last 100 years (1933, 1959, 1996, 2003 & 2006).

Given the forcast is for cooler weather has the 50/50 changed ?

[spindrift1980]

Tentative signs of better weather for snow patch retention/survival from the 'planning outlook' Mountain Weather Info Service forecast:

"Showers on western, or by late Tuesday mainly northern mountains will turn to snow to a low level as a plunge

of very cold air covers Britain. Snowfall may well be extensive Cairngorms and northwest Highlands."

http://www.mwis.org.uk/mountain/EH.PDF

[stewfox]

Tentative signs of better weather for snow patch retention/survival from the 'planning outlook' Mountain Weather Info Service forecast:

"Showers on western, or by late Tuesday mainly northern mountains will turn to snow to a low level as a plunge

of very cold air covers Britain. Snowfall may well be extensive Cairngorms and northwest Highlands."

http://www.mwis.org.uk/mountain/EH.PDF

So maybe we will have had 4/5 that made it ?

Looks like our only real chance of many of those patches surviving is if we get an October like this:

http://www.wetterzen...00119811012.gif

Will arrange it for next week.

[Norrance]

A good cover on the highest mountains today, especially the Cairngorms, so I would hope at least that Garbh Coire Mhor will survive. Not sure if as much has fallen in the Nevis range?

Edited October 20, 2010 by Norrance

[spindrift1980]

A very interesting and informative post from Dr Adam Watson over on the Winterhighland messageboard. It appears likely that lasting winter snows have now been established at the Garbh Coire Mor patch. Not sure about the situation in the west..don't think there has been as much snow. As far as I can gather there are still 2 patches at Ben Nevis' Observatory Gully and one (probably) at Aonach Beag.

"There has been a deep snowfall on Ben Avon and Beinn a' Bhuird on Tuesday afternoon and on Wednesday, accompanied by heavy drifting. I saw the hills in good light Wednesday afternoon. The eastern Cairngorms showed some boulders along exposed ridges and tors but otherwise were completely white, and with deep drifts facing south and southeast. On Tueday there was a strong N wind, Wednesday also strong and NW, though at times in the afternoon about 3.30 pm blowing from W. The east Cairngorms were out of the sun, and smoking with drifting. Snowline was at 1800 feet on Morven, with drifts several feet deep in hollows on the SE side of the hill. There was not much on the Buck, but the Ladder Hills had had a heavy fall. Very little on Mount Keen, Braid Cairn, and Mount Battock but of course they are further south and seldom get much snow during autumn snowfalls. Brown Cow Hill had more than Morven, and already the Broon Coo's White Calf has a nice wreath. Even at 800 feet on Kerloch the wind on Tuesday and Wednesday was strong, about Beaufort 5 and at times 6 during squalls. When I left at 3.40 pm Ben Avon and Beinn a' Bhuird were out of sight in a fresh snowstorm, and also the Ladder Hills, and Morven was getting the edge of it. I would judge that there has been a lot of new snow blown on to the old snow below Sphinx Ridge. The snowfall has been so deep and the drifting so great that I would be very surpirsed if this were not lasting winter snow at the Sphinx patch."

[firefly]

Beaten me to it, spindrift!

I'm certain that we will have at least 1 survival this year, and possibly 3: 4 at the best, though Aonach Beag is still very much in the balance I feel. It won't be getting as much as the others due to the fact it's about 700 ft lower down. I was at Aonach Beag a week past Saturday and it is barely above 3000 ft. Astonishing really. The snow visible in this photograph fell in November 2006.

I'll wait until this cold spell passes before I commit to the final tally!

[stewfox]

Beaten me to it, spindrift!

I'm certain that we will have at least 1 survival this year, and possibly 3: 4 at the best, though Aonach Beag is still very much in the balance I feel. It won't be getting as much as the others due to the fact it's about 700 ft lower down. I was at Aonach Beag a week past Saturday and it is barely above 3000 ft. Astonishing really. The snow visible in this photograph fell in November 2006.

I'll wait until this cold spell passes before I commit to the final tally!

With more mild weather has most of the recent snow gone ?

[spindrift1980]

Snow cover was still pretty much 100% at 1100m on Cairngorm at 4pm as this webcam image shows:

http://www.cairngormmountain.co.uk/news/webcams

Cover starting to look a bit patchy at 700m on the Lecht, however. Looks like a major thaw on the cards with the mild temperatures and 'hairdryer' winds forecast for the near future. Currently 6.3C on the summit of Cairngorm and 15.3C in Aboyne! Will be interesting to see what remains in the usual places after the thaw...

[stewfox]

Beaten me to it, spindrift!

I'm certain that we will have at least 1 survival this year, and possibly 3: 4 at the best, though Aonach Beag is still very much in the balance I feel. It won't be getting as much as the others due to the fact it's about 700 ft lower down. I was at Aonach Beag a week past Saturday and it is barely above 3000 ft. Astonishing really. The snow visible in this photograph fell in November 2006.

I'll wait until this cold spell passes before I commit to the final tally!

Well we have another mild spell, is this going to impact the surviving snow patches or can we put this season to bed.

[spindrift1980]

Is actually not desperately mild up here - in fact, not only is it snowing above 900m on many hills through the west highlands, but in the words of one poster on the Winterhighland website (http://www.winterhighland.info/forum/read.php?2,124508,page=25):

"Prolonged and heavy snow now falling at Nevis Range above around 900m with drifting in the strong wind.This could be the day for lasting snow at the top of Observatory Gully. "

Certainly, the summit of Aonach Mor was looking well-plastered on the webcam a moment ago, and is now a complete whiteout!

Often it might seem relatively mild at low altitude, but the higher parts at least of west highland mountains can gain as much or more snow through westerly zonal-type weather patterns than in the type of weather which predominated last winter. The consensus seems to be that a significant factor in the relatively low amount of survivals generally this year (given the sheer volume of winter snowfall) was the relative lack of westerly storms last winter.

In summary, there seems at least a chance then that lasting snowfall will be established on Ben Nevis this week. The consensus also appears to be that the one remaining patch in the Cairngorms (Garbh Coire Mor on Braeriach) has already survived to lasting winter snow (barring some freakish outbreak of warm weather)

[firefly]

Yes, the consensus amongst those in the know is that lasting snow came to Garbh Choire Mor on the 18th October, thereby preserving the one remaining patch there (known as Sphinx, which can be seen here, from the 26th September 2009).

Barring a prolonged mild spell (very unlikely, looking at the medium-term forecast), it looks as though four patches made it on Ben Nevis. These really did make it by the skin of their teeth. None of them were longer than two metres, and the smallest was only half a metre or so long. You can see the larger ones here, and the small ones here. Had there been even a few more days mild weather then they'd have gone.

We don't yet know the situation at Aonach Beag, where snow has been ever-present since late 2006. The last report was from the 27th October, where a 4.5 metre patch was observed (though only from above, amid new snow). Myself and another intend to visit this on Monday to see (a) if there is any left, and (B) if we can find it! It will be well covered by now, so it may be very difficult.

Watch this space...

[Guest]

Watch this space...

A cracking read as ever firefly, lovely stuff :)

[firefly]

Unfortunately the weather put paid to me and my friend's attempt to find the small patch of snow that we're certain remained on Aonach Beag today. However, the plus side is that we're now pretty certain lasting snow has arrived at Ben Nevis and its neighbours.

After a winter characterised by very low temperatures (the lowest average temperature in Scotland for many a year) and heavy snowfall from the north, the expectation amongst certain people that I spoke to was that this was to be a vintage year for snow-patch survival in Scotland. This was to prove to be completely unfounded, as the snow that survived did so only by the skin of its teeth.

In England we saw snow persist until the 13th June, when a small patch on Cross Fell finally succumbed to warm weather. This was a month later (on Cross Fell) than last year, and pretty unusual by recent standards. In Wales a patch survived on Carnedd Llewelyn (at a location called Y Ffoes Ddyfn (the deep cut)) until the evening of the 28th June. Very unusual we think, though we have no recent records to compare against. This late date almost stands up against historical accounts (pre-1930) where it was known to persist into July quite regularly.

The reasons why such a deep snow fall in Scotland failed to translate into lots of surviving patches is purely speculative, as no meteorological research was done (to our knowledge). However, there are - in my opinion - two reasons why this was the case. Firstly, the snow came almost exclusively from the north this past winter. These big northerly storms give the impression of deep cover, and indeed in some instances hollows that do not normally get filled up were full, but the traditional long-lying patches that face NE or E fared poorly, given that they really need SW or W storms to fill them up to the level required to see them through the summer comfortably.

The other reason, in my view, was a distinct lack of freeze/thaw cycles. The winter stayed sub-zero on the hills for weeks at a time, and successive snowfalls just piled up on top of each other. When it did warm up, the pack was very unstable, resulting in the very high numbers of avalanches (a cracker of a picture of one from April 2010 at Glenshee, here). Unconsolidated snow is removed rapidly from the hill in warm/hot summer weather. It became obvious by July that although some locations would retain snow far longer than they normally do, the usual suspects would suffer. So it proved.

A final number will be posted on here once we've come to a definitive conclusion.

[osmposm]

Thanks, as always, Firefly. Your hypothesis about the unexpectedly poor survival rate makes very good sense to me.

That Glenshee photo is a peach - though I'm not sure I'd like to be standing next to a huge 4m deep shelf of unstable snow like that for too long!

Edited November 9, 2010 by osmposm