Model Output Discussion

[BlueHedgehog074]

Looking at the various replies, I think it would be fair to suggest that the outlook for next week is still unclear, with the models and maps (especially ECMWF) partly unsure where the Low for next week will end up.

Before that, the GFS and ECMWF generally agree to some warm, dry, settled weather ahead for the next three or so days while the high shifts further Eastwards. Temperatures of 20*C and over looking increasinly likely the further on into this week with Friday and Saturday perhaps looking the warmest as the high pressure takes a seat in the East of the U.K and brings in some warm air from the South /South-East:

Temperatures of around 21 - 24*C likely in the South from Thursday onwards, with slightly cooler temperatures in the North. North-Western areas will probably see some showery and cloudier conditions during the weekend with pressure gradually lowering from the Northwest.

Just to quote you from last week:

Were you not advising other members not to focus too much outside of the reliable timeframe? I think an unsettled pattern is looking likely going into next week but in terms of specifics, I think there's still a lot of uncertainty regarding the low's track and depth as it approaches the UK, and this will make all the difference in terms of what the weather will be like.

Indeed.

Edited June 1, 2010 by Rainbow Snow

[SP1986]

Just to quote you from last week:

Were you not advising other members not to focus too much outside of the reliable timeframe? I think an unsettled pattern is looking likely going into next week but in terms of specifics, I think there's still a lot of uncertainty regarding the low's track and depth as it approaches the UK, and this will make all the difference in terms of what the weather will be like.

Yes but that only applies when the outlook is far from certain, and when we don't know what the near timeframe will bring. If the near timeframe is known like it is on this occassion until the weekend, then we can concentrate on what we may term FI.

When I said that we were still unsure that the next 4 days weather was sorted out, now we know it is generally.

Besides after that I posted a post saying that in some circumstances FI can be a useful tool for trend setting, as long as you dont divulge too much in specifics which is fair to say.

[mushymanrob]

The mid-Atlantic ridge often means dry sunny weather in the west and rather cold, cloudy weather in the east- a lot depends on how far east the high gets. The first half of June 1995 had a dominant mid-Atlantic ridge and was a good case in point.

Mushymanrob is right about thunderstorms- again referring back to June 1995, that month saw a notable lack of thunder activity in most areas of the UK, the only exceptions being parts of the northeast which saw some thundery showers from cyclonic NW regimes, mainly the 1st, 2nd and 7th. Unless you get a prominent Scandinavian Low you probably aren't going to see any thunder activity anywhere in the UK with a mid-Atlantic ridge.

However it only takes a small eastward shift of that pattern and suddenly Britain is sat under high pressure.

true, but that then wouldnt be a 'mid atlantic ridge'

well this mornings runs all agree on the general theme next week, low pressure stuck over/close by to us. of course that doesnt mean 'monsoon', but theres no sign of any heatwave either.

[Frosty.]

The good news is that the gfs 00z yesterday was too progressive in breaking down the fine and warm spell and it is now giving us an extra 24 hours of summer sun and high temps so the weekend will be very nice and very warm for most of the uk, best in the southeast but the bad news is that next week is looking every bit as unsettled and maybe even more unsettled than was shown 24 hours ago, a very unsettled spell through next week with a trough over the uk giving spells of rain and showers, some heavy and thundery and temps falling back to nearer average.

[weather_it_will]

It looks like a wet outlook with average temperatures beyond the end of the week according to GFS ensembles.

[The PIT]

A nice settled spell before cooler more unsettled weather arrives and continues into FI. ECM and GFS in fairly good agreement on this so enjoy the weather while it lasts.

[SP1986]

The good news is that the gfs 00z yesterday was too progressive in breaking down the fine and warm spell and it is now giving us an extra 24 hours of summer sun and high temps so the weekend will be very nice and very warm for most of the uk, best in the southeast but the bad news is that next week is looking every bit as unsettled and maybe even more unsettled than was shown 24 hours ago, a very unsettled spell through next week with a trough over the uk giving spells of rain and showers, some heavy and thundery and temps falling back to nearer average.

18-21C is average for June though, after than warm spell, the night temperatures shown are fairly average for many the daytime maximums shown would be few degrees below average and actually way way below average in the west (as much as 6-7C below)

Of course this has no bearing on what will happen becuase frankly the GFS is now starting to wobble around showing different outcomes all the time past 180 hours

[Frosty.]

18-21C is average for June though, after than warm spell, the night temperatures shown are fairly average for many the daytime maximums shown would be few degrees below average and actually way way below average in the west (as much as 6-7C below)

Of course this has no bearing on what will happen becuase frankly the GFS is now starting to wobble around showing different outcomes all the time past 180 hours

The 6z is even worse than the gfs 00z in my opinion with stronger winds and cooler temps and next week is looking pretty horrible to be honest and I don't think there is any escape from a significant poor spell beyond the weekend.

I was being optimistic about the 00z temps but as you say, below average temps are likely during next week and maybe even beyond.

Edited June 2, 2010 by Frosty039

[mushymanrob]

The 6z is even worse than the gfs 00z in my opinion with stronger winds and cooler temps and next week is looking pretty horrible to be honest and I don't think there is any escape from a significant poor spell beyond the weekend.

indeed its looking like there will be a gradual decline in the weather away from warm sunny and dry weather to wetter, windier, and cooler into next week. id be very surprised if something like the expected synoptics as shown on the gfs didnt happen now. next wednesday in particular could be very wet in the south if that small low tracks over southern counties. hopefully things wont be quite as bad... but my earlier optimism has all but vanished.

[Alex95]

I haven't written off next week yet. It looks awful on the pressure charts, but there is around 50% thunderstorm risk on the GFS for a couple of days, and I can live with a cool / wet week if there is a storm or two. Last July I wrote off a week, and there were thunderstorms on 3 separate days.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Much depends on the strength of the jet and the amount of associated frontal activity. A weak jet, minimal frontal activity and slack lows over the UK are a recipe for sunshine and slow-moving thundery showers. A strong jet and numerous fronts usually lead to dull cool wet weather. July 2009 in Tyneside was quite a good illustration with the "thundery showers" scenario persisting early in the month but more in the way of dull cool wet weather later in the month as the jet powered up.

[The PIT]

Well looking fairly settled until Sunday at least. Question then in FI is how far and how fast those Lows come in. So enjoy the warm weather in the meantime.

[ANYWEATHER]

A few nice warm days to look forward to and highs of 25c by Saturday in the southeast but some convective showers could well spoil play as early as Friday in the western half of the Uk.....

[snowlover2009]

yes please for FI 12z!!!!!!!

[mushymanrob]

indeed id settle for the 12z in its entirety.... but it will not happen of course.

[Eugene]

GFS 12Z FI would produce some horrendous conditions for most people with localised flooding a real risk.

A large warm outlier though on the GFS 12Z ensembles with the vast majority of runs cool and unsettled still.

Edited June 2, 2010 by Eugene

[Rob]

GFS 12Z FI would produce some horredous conditions for most people with localised flooding a real risk

A large warm outlier though on the GFS 12Z ensembles with the vast majority of runs cool and unsettled still.

definately, not looking too dry, bang goes the chance of a nice summer then...

[snowlover2009]

definately, not looking too dry, bang goes the chance of a nice summer then...

oh here we go again! first bit of proper rain for a while and summer is off. ill go hibernate now....

its called trends and it is FI as well. all that rain means nothing, its the trend of a possible plume or warmth coming from the south and i doubt 'all that rain' will be accurate and most of it will be showers and torrential with thunder.

there gos another one joining the band wagon of summers over.

Edited June 2, 2010 by snowlover2009

[BornFromTheVoid]

Liking the GFS. Slight storm risk on Friday with the risk increasing as we enter the early part of next week.

Can't remember the last time I saw a decent lightning display. Temperatures not looking too bad either B)

[Costa Del Fal]

oh here we go again! first bit of proper rain for a while and summer is off. ill go hibernate now....

its called trends and it is FI as well. all that rain means nothing, its the trend of a possible plume or warmth coming from the south and i doubt 'all that rain' will be accurate and most of it will be showers and torrential with thunder.

there gos another one joining the band wagon of summers over.

I agree. Ever since the good summers of 2003 and 2006, anything that is not to its exceptional standards means summer is a write off to some people and its obvious who they are. The outlook looks pretty normal, more showery to me not bands of rain after bands of rain. I see no dartboard Low over the country but a slack low pressure in control keeping things mild, not too warm, not too hot but not dry and not excessively wet imo.

Edited June 2, 2010 by Blizzards

[johnholmes]

definately, not looking too dry, bang goes the chance of a nice summer then...

Rob

PLEASE think a little

why on earth has the chance of a nice summer gone?

We have, fairly certainly for much of the country, especially the south, Thur-Sat before anything is likely, probably Sunday not a bad summery day for a good many.

That is, if we include today 5 days out of the first 6 okay!

From Monday on the models toy mainly with an unsettled spell but at times its a mix of warmth and showery type, much like 12z, so lets have a bit of sense about the issue please!

As to what may happen mid June onwards then I would think it far too early to be even 50% sure of the likely outcome for into mid July let alone what August may have.

Read the measured posts, try the technical thread, if you don't understand some of the terminology, ask for an explanation, any that post in there with their thoughts I am sure will be happy to simplify it if necessary.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Hmmmmm...if I have observed this right, then it looks as though we could see some great thunderstorm/storm potential, especially from 13th June onwards, with lower pressure to the West and higher pressure to the East, which would allow Southerly winds. Lower pressure to the West will probably also help to provide the energy for storms/thundery weather:

Clearly very likely to change with this potential far out, but certainly an interesting 12Z GFS update we have on our hands. Edit: As some have stated we could see some possible stormy and showery weather before this, especially for the weekend and early next week.

The temperatures should be quite warm for the next few days on both the GFS and ECMWF, with winds between the South-East and South-West - temperatures between 17*C to 25*C can be expected quite widely for places. Warm, sunny and dry weather for many places tommorrow, perhaps with some pieces of cloud around (more specifically for some Northern spots according to GFS's cloud cover charts), although should be a very pleasant day. B)

[BlueHedgehog074]

Must say, the GFS do show a number of storm risks for various places from Friday and into the next week with Low Pressure sliding Eastwards, but would have to agree that the Met Office show something different with the Low Pressure more out to the West at the 120 hour mark than compared with the ECMWF.

[Wilxy]

Nice end of the week to look foward to then low pressure moves in next week, and ecm suggesting high pressure to build again by next weekend.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

It would be nice to see just a pleasantly warm/average/cool (not hot) and dry spell continuing - the May weather pattern was very nice and peaceful with lots of dry weather punctuated with just enough gentle rainfall to keep the gardens watered. A few lovely days ahead for the rest of this week and weekend and hopefully when/if any low pressure comes near the Uk from early next week, as suggested by the models, then any disruptive downpours stay well inland and (a few of us at least) within a 10 mile radius of the coast can keep enjoying some pleasant sunshine and quiet weather