Model Output Discussion

[frostyjoe]

I'm not quite sure what forecast you were looking at. But the BBC/MetO one only had scattered showers and sunny spells, certainly no sign of 'rain all day', where did you get that impression from??

The woman on the weather showed a rain band and all that came was cloud.

Edited June 4, 2010 by frostyjoe

[RichardR]

Again no data too look at.... Apart from the ukmo which shows an unsettled outlook.

Yes the 12z is there on www.wetterzentrale.de.

[mushymanrob]

my word.... what a run! (gfs 12z), no doubt a warm... erm.. hot outlier but who knows, maybe, just maybe its spotting a new trend.. ok im hopecasting!

[snowlover2009]

my word.... what a run! (gfs 12z), no doubt a warm... erm.. hot outlier but who knows, maybe, just maybe its spotting a new trend.. ok im hopecasting!

there has been a lot of trends in the ensembles of warmth and dryness.

TBH the FI charts have shown wet conditions, but not much trend and certainly hardly anything to worry us of another repeat of 07,08 and 09. there has been more trends to typical summer conditions for the UK in fi than wet conditions and that run would bring thunderstorms and heat and a long dry spell for some(obviously maybe thunderstorms but nothing in the way of pesty long spells of grey and wet weather crossing the country like recent summers )

What a terrific start to summer, next week looks like a temporary blip to me and the world cup could kick off good with some lovely temperatures and hopefully the low to the south could spark a bang to the world cup.

WHAT A BRILLIANT CHART TOO FOR THUNDERSTORM LOVERS!!!

Edited June 4, 2010 by snowlover2009

[Thundery wintry showers]

Interestingly the GFS 12Z shows the scenario for Tuesday/Wednesday that I mentioned in my month-ahead forecast at the start of the month (available under "monthly outlook" in the free section of Netweather.tv). A slow moving band of rain over S Scotland + N England, slowly drifting south, with bright, showery, thundery weather over the southern two-thirds of England and also Wales. Of course, plenty of time for the positioning of these areas of weather to be revised further, so I could yet be proved well wide of the mark!

I note that GFS 12Z FI again has a mid-Atlantic ridge but the key difference is that a ridge is thrown up from the main high over to the British Isles keeping the weather relatively warm and sunny.

[johnholmes]

below is the current prediction state by NAE and GFS/Extra for the rainfall this weekend, pdf file

rainfall for this weekend-4-7 june 10.pdf

[rmc1987]

my word.... what a run! (gfs 12z), no doubt a warm... erm.. hot outlier but who knows, maybe, just maybe its spotting a new trend.. ok im hopecasting!

Without a doubt a warm/hot outlier! Although the temperatures never really look to get that high despite the high 850's! I've seen a few runs that have shown much cooler weather!

Edited June 4, 2010 by rmc1987

[Cheese Rice]

The current synoptics that we are in could continue for the rest of the summer, ie. A warm spell followed by a week of Atlantic, seems like a very probable outcome. More so as at the end of the week a ridge of high pressure sets in (GFS) providing further warmth, which would equal the third time there has been a period of warmth followed by a period of the Atlantic. Personally I would be happy if this was the case and I see no reason why the current pattern wouldn't be the prevailing synoptics of this summer.

Edited June 4, 2010 by 10123

[Ben_Cambs]

Tonights ECM and GFS are pretty similar out to T+144, the only major difference being the slack low slightly deeper than the LP that GFS progs. On ECM another LP tracks over the North of the UK pretty quickly around T+168, but on GFS the LP's that are progged track north of the UK. The Mid-Atlantic ridge is prevelant and fits in perfectly with GP's thoughts. At the end of the ECM run, HP builds in from the south west leaving dry and warm conditions.

[conor123]

Quite a messy run the 18z, the track of the low will be interesting as we could well end up having a very hot thundery blast from Europe next weekend, or the atlantic high ridging over us giving pleasantly warm conditions.

It amazes me how the GFS never seems to get fixed with its bug regarding nightime minimums, no way would it get down to 1c in June under fairly warm air (180hrs).

[rmc1987]

Tomorrow looks to be the last warm day I mean mid 20's sort of warmth for a while according to 18z. This cooler/average type of outlook has been coming up a fair bit. Seen the odd warm up but the cooler/average seems the more likely. Last warm up on 12z was an outlier.

[Eugene]

Yes rmc it was. everyone seems to be concentrating on the warmer runs when there are so many runs on the ensembles showing cooler conditions, ecm 12z seems to be lining up a northwesterly at the end.

Edited June 4, 2010 by Eugene

[Vince]

Yes rmc it was. everyone seems to be concentrating on the warmer runs when there are so many runs on the ensembles showing cooler conditions, ecm 12z seems to be lining up a northwesterly at the end.

behave , we have just had plenty of cool /cold weather and the coldest winter in 30 years , now its summer lets have something to enjoy before the downward spiral starts

im sure you would be happy for cold wet weather and NE's all year long, you and retron from two should get together !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Noctilucid]

We could do with less of this deliberate bias and provocative behavior please, you're spoiling my lurking of this thread.

May I take this opportunity to remind you that you cannot wish the weather to change, and so there is no point in deliberately twisting things either way. Scientists have allegedly been deliberately twisting things and look at the mess thats got us into, but thats a different teapot of crabs.

Sorry to take this thread further off topic, but it really does need to stop, remember that not so well informed members such as me like to read this thread for its detailed and interesting forecasts, and it becomes very confusing when there is one camp celebrating an impending heatwave and another talking of a chilly northerly, both camps resorting to excessive straw clutching at times.

Thank you.

Edited June 4, 2010 by jshaw

[Cheese Rice]

behave , we have just had plenty of cool /cold weather and the coldest winter in 30 years , now its summer lets have something to enjoy before the downward spiral starts

im sure you would be happy for cold wet weather and NE's all year long, you and retron from two should get together !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You've got it all wrong, he/she is saying we must be cautious and not just look at what we want, we should have an open approach instead of focusing on the warmer runs and should take into account the cooler runs as they are just as likely to happen.

Edited June 5, 2010 by 10123

[mushymanrob]

the bbc are playing down today/tomorrows thundery possibility, but more people are in line for showers/storms (ie not so many in the east but more in the west). some agreement into next week, a depression on tuesday takes up residence either over us or to the south depending on which model you view. the fax/ukmo suggest its further south and also suggest a toppling ridge might settle things down by next weekend IF it continues sinking over us. however both the ecm and gfs atm have the depression over us.

sunshine, showers, longer spells of rain, cool but pleasant in the sun. on the positive side if you would desire more sunny warm weather... whilst theres non on offer, the synoptics throughout wouldnt have to shift much to give us sunshine/warmth.

[The PIT]

Thundery in the South East East and later NW tomorrow then becoming more unsettled. ECM run brings back briefly memories of previous summers. Low across the south and rain.

[snowlover2009]

behave , we have just had plenty of cool /cold weather and the coldest winter in 30 years , now its summer lets have something to enjoy before the downward spiral starts

im sure you would be happy for cold wet weather and NE's all year long, you and retron from two should get together !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

i agree, 95% of people on here enjoy the typical weather for each season. if they want cold all year, they should only post throughout winter and just look at the models in the summer and not post because it is bloody annoying and depressing to here them talk about cool and wet summers. im sorry but what is good about that year round and especially in summer time for crying out loud!

i know people like cool weather than warm weather, but these 2 in particular mean a different sort of cool weather by it being dull and miserable and cold!

you would think people who like that sort of weather year round, would have respect on here to those who love summer type weather. they have already has the coldest winter in decades and TBH i dont mind people on here complaining in the winter of how cold it is, because many people in the uk hate cold weather and it is more normal in some ways to prefer summer, however there is still people who find winter interesting, particularly for snow. but to go on about cold weather in summer and stuff is ridiculus. it was on the other weather site, retron was saying how he hates bbq and there awful etc etc. wow he needs to get out more.

Edited June 5, 2010 by snowlover2009

[MP-R]

Thank heavens what's in FI is in FI! Persistent zonality from the 16th onwards - yuck, and there was me thinking depressions were supposed to move West-East.

With the slacker lows this week, possibly some thunderstorm potential on Wednesday:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

Tentative signs at the return of high pressure although currently a brief affair despite the sheer size of it by the 14th:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.png

This coming week does share similarities with the last week of May 2008 which really was very wet with thunder.

[SP1986]

The 0z on the GFS doesnt look too bad, warm, humid in the sunshine and the possibility of thunderyness in some parts. Other models have broadly similar outlooks

[summer blizzard]

Appaling outlook from all models, with a humid and wet outlook along with high minima.

Into FI, and the GFS has a cooler and more showery outlook take over.

[SP1986]

Appaling outlook from all models, with a humid and wet outlook along with high minima.

What do you expect in June? frost?

the 6z seems a bit strange to me, despite the pumping in of warm air off the continent, dewpoints stay very low, I think this one will be a cold outlier at some point

[ribster]

i agree, 95% of people on here enjoy the typical weather for each season. if they want cold all year, they should only post throughout winter and just look at the models in the summer and not post because it is bloody annoying and depressing to here them talk about cool and wet summers. im sorry but what is good about that year round and especially in summer time for crying out loud!

i know people like cool weather than warm weather, but these 2 in particular mean a different sort of cool weather by it being dull and miserable and cold!

you would think people who like that sort of weather year round, would have respect on here to those who love summer type weather. they have already has the coldest winter in decades and TBH i dont mind people on here complaining in the winter of how cold it is, because many people in the uk hate cold weather and it is more normal in some ways to prefer summer, however there is still people who find winter interesting, particularly for snow. but to go on about cold weather in summer and stuff is ridiculus. it was on the other weather site, retron was saying how he hates bbq and there awful etc etc. wow he needs to get out more.

Blimey, what an extremely prejudiced view, people are not 'normal' if they don't like summer and don't like bbqs? It seems to me you only want people to comment on the models that show warm, summery weather. So if 9 out of 10 runs show a cooler more unsettled outlook, we can't discuss those, we must focus on only the run that shows a heatwave? Wouldn't want to annoy or depress anyone, heaven forbid. The forum is to discuss what the models show, not what you wish for.

Edited June 5, 2010 by ribster

[Kentish Kiwi]

The 0z on the GFS doesnt look too bad, warm, humid in the sunshine and the possibility of thunderyness in some parts. Other models have broadly similar outlooks

Appaling outlook from all models, with a humid and wet outlook along with high minima.

Into FI, and the GFS has a cooler and more showery outlook take over.

A textbook case of glass half full/half empty posting there, or maybe just personal interpretation of what the models are showing, although if would seem one is being rather more negative than warranted. No wonder people become confused about the outlook after reading this thread.

That said, it seems there is broad agreement over the outlook being above average at night time, humid and at least more unsettled/wetter than of late.

[Thundery wintry showers]

@snowlover2009: the Model Output Discussion thread is about discussing what the model outputs show, not what you or I want them to show. Cold wet summers sometimes happen, and if the models are showing something with "cold" and "wet" in the description then any objective discussion should make a note of that. At the same time of course there shouldn't be despair if the charts show something less than what we want, or gloating from certain quarters if they don't show what a lot of other people want.

Today's runs have revised the positioning of the low pressure further south again, so the bright showery thundery weather looks like ending up confined to the extreme south on Monday/Tuesday. Into midweek, probably dry sunny and cold towards the NW, dull towards the NE, and rain for most of the south.