Model Output Discussion

[Derp Patrol]

It's not that bad... things will change from run to run, but the general theme is unsettled this week before a return to more settled weather with high pressure.. the general trend in practically all runs recently has been high pressure building in early FI, and that is no different on this run.

Hopefully this summer will be better, at the moment it certainly looks like it will be, low pressure over Greenland is always a good sign for better weather here, and all recent runs show low pressure over Greenland which suggests high pressure close to the UK.

[mushymanrob]

oh well... the great synoptics are now all gone as expected. looks like cooler northeasterlies will be the theme for later this week and no bbq weekend next weekend. quite unsettled week ahead with cool temps and a nagging wind. i think rainfall ammounts wil decrease as the week goes on. the gfs still insists on some sort of return to 'summer' into fi, itr might be right but not within any reliable timeframe.

at least ive had some proper 'useful' rain now... still thundering, but i wouldnt call it a 'storm', tbh i can beltch more violently!

Edited June 6, 2010 by mushymanrob

[Frosty.]

Disappointing week ahead weatherwise, cooler and fresher NE'ly winds, some rain and showers, probably below average sunshine with generally a lot of cloud from day to day, there is still hope of another very warm spell from the gfs 00z but less convincing than the charts showed 18-24 hours ago but a scandi high in FI is something to hope for and cling to for the mid june period.

[Snowyowl9]

Looking at the upper air for next week,I wouldn`t say a cooler NE as such it`s quite a warm one wrapping around although it does look like our wettest week for some time maybe thundery rain,it it was a more E/SE or centre of the low.

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/9panel/gfsx_850_9panel_eur.html

But a run of easterlies or some sort yet again.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looks to me like the country can be divided up into 3 zones according to the GFS:

Cent + N Scotland- dry, sunny in the W, cloudy in the E,

S Scotland + N England + Midlands + N Wales- mostly dull, cold and wet,

S England + S Wales- some sunshine, heavy thundery showers, longer outbreaks of rain from time to time.

ECM pulls the low away to the SE on Thursday causing those three zones to migrate south-eastwards, but then interestingly throws up a mid Atlantic ridge towards the UK promising relatively warm, sunny weather.

[SP1986]

I beg to differ with all of the posts above.. (except one)

The GFS 0z shows a quite humid, mild pattern for all, I dont think it would be cold in N England and N Wales - it would be below average but not feeling that cold due to the humidity factor.

The GFS isn't 100% at matching the right specifics to the patterns so we can be sure it would be a few degrees either side in terms of temperatures and dew points depending on where you were.

It doesn't look all that bad the GFS for most areas, the METO though looks pretty bad for everyone.

[SP1986]

6z is very mixed, nothing really in the way of summer weather but rainfall totals will be made up pretty quickly.

The bottom line is that the GFS is not correct after 48 hours, you only have to look at the ensembles to see that.

[Ben_Cambs]

Interesting stats from NOAA from the model performance graphs, it suggests that ECM performs best out to T+144 at the moment, but also intrestingly shows that UKMO has been underperforming compared to ECM and GFS.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz6.html

Looks like a very wet especially for the south, Tuesday and Friday look like being the wettest days next week as things stand, centre of LP just to the south and as mentioned by TWS could produce some thundery showers.

[azores92]

the biggest difference about the 12z gfs, is that the low to our south for later on in the week goes too far east, subsequently moving all of the fun and games with it.

[bluearmy]

the biggest difference about the 12z gfs, is that the low to our south for later on in the week goes too far east, subsequently moving all of the fun and games with it.

i dont think we're likely to be the right side of the shortwave for any fun and games. its either very heavy rain or just heavy rain. the decent thundery stuff looks likely to stay on the continent.

both ecm ens and NAEFS both showing a decent spell beyond next weekend once the atlantic high ridges in and cuts off any northerly flow behind the trough.

[azores92]

i dont think we're likely to be the right side of the shortwave for any fun and games. its either very heavy rain or just heavy rain. the decent thundery stuff looks likely to stay on the continent.

both ecm ens and NAEFS both showing a decent spell beyond next weekend once the atlantic high ridges in and cuts off any northerly flow behind the trough.

haha i meant fun and games as in heavy thundery rain, not huge anvils etc, but yes the further outlook looks better once the ground has had a good soaking

[snowlover2009]

the biggest difference about the 12z gfs, is that the low to our south for later on in the week goes too far east, subsequently moving all of the fun and games with it.

if the azores high can come back in, then i would take the 12z. as the low moves further east, meaning the low won't keep spinning annoyingly all the time and gives chance for it to dry up quicker. i was interested in soem storms, but i doubt it will happen now. at least if the low gos more to the east, it means less rain and less likely of flooding. it also means the azores can build in from the west. FI is pretty lovely and woudl give us a sustained period of very settled weather and summery weather.

nothing out of the ordinary from that run, no washout at least.

[mushymanrob]

pretty good agreement now out to t120-144 , the ex 'biscay low' has followed the route yesterdays ecm predicted and will drift to our northeast by next weekend. the gfs and ecm suggest a ridge building in for saturday but the ukmo is having non of that keeping the low close to our northeast, feeding us cool winds from the northern quadrant .

all in all a poor week of below average temps, cloud, rain and at times wind.

the 12z gfs in fi reverts to its 'summer default setting' and slaps a large anticyclone right over us... ill believe it when i see it!

[rmc1987]

pretty good agreement now out to t120-144 , the ex 'biscay low' has followed the route yesterdays ecm predicted and will drift to our northeast by next weekend. the gfs and ecm suggest a ridge building in for saturday but the ukmo is having non of that keeping the low close to our northeast, feeding us cool winds from the northern quadrant .

all in all a poor week of below average temps, cloud, rain and at times wind.

the 12z gfs in fi reverts to its 'summer default setting' and slaps a large anticyclone right over us... ill believe it when i see it!

Yes, so normal services resumed ;-) for atleast a week anyway. Beyond that out in FI a big HP over us. Mmmm last run had a low just to our West I'm sure! Didn't it?

[SP1986]

I don't believe the GFS is at its final conclusion, if you want an idea of what my own idea is of what will eventually happen, take a look at the GME model.

[ANYWEATHER]

pretty good agreement now out to t120-144 , the ex 'biscay low' has followed the route yesterdays ecm predicted and will drift to our northeast by next weekend. the gfs and ecm suggest a ridge building in for saturday but the ukmo is having non of that keeping the low close to our northeast, feeding us cool winds from the northern quadrant .

all in all a poor week of below average temps, cloud, rain and at times wind.

the 12z gfs in fi reverts to its 'summer default setting' and slaps a large anticyclone right over us... ill believe it when i see it!

Yep Mushy, agree with that,not only the gfs does that either! Ecm similar one run totaly unsettled next run ,big high over uk.....UMMMH!

[phil nw.]

A much cooler and more unsettled week to come then.

Tuesday does look the wettest day for many with depressed maximums as the Low moves across Central areas.

Good agreement here on the placement of this feature.

Some fresh North Easterly winds during midweek as the Low eases across towards the near continent.

There will be local differences as we go through the week and it seems that Western and Southern areas will start to dry out first and by Friday it should start to feel warmer here.

However there could be a fly in the ointment in the South East with the nearby low possibly developing frontal rain here.

Thereafter signs of an Atlantic High building over next weekend settling things down but keeping us in a comparatively cool North Westerly flow.

Edited June 6, 2010 by phil n.warks.

[Milhouse]

More runs certainly needed to determine what will happen from next weekend onwards. Thats why i'm not reading too much into the ECM12z. Its an absolute shocker but as there is absolutely no support from the other models i'm not too concerned. Slightly better is the GFS which brings the Azores high closer to the UK but not enough to be dominant and stick around for long. JMA is the pick of the models tonight. The variation very much is reflected in the ensembles which show a range of options and no clear trend as yet.

[bluearmy]

More runs certainly needed to determine what will happen from next weekend onwards. Thats why i'm not reading too much into the ECM12z. Its an absolute shocker but as there is absolutely no support from the other models i'm not too concerned. Slightly better is the GFS which brings the Azores high closer to the UK but not enough to be dominant and stick around for long. JMA is the pick of the models tonight. The variation very much is reflected in the ensembles which show a range of options and no clear trend as yet.

the ens mean - (NAEFS and ECM) show a reasonable outlook beyond next weekend the further south one heads, the better. the 6/14 dayers ex NOAA tomorrow evening will give a better indication of confidence although the meto 14 dayer and beyond seemed keen on a northerly flow in general. they must have read GP's post on the mid atlantic ridge being the main player as we move through june as the mean output from ecm/NAEFS didnt show this outlook.

[reef]

The ECM and UKMO seem very bullish on a northerly around the T+144 to T+168 range. The GFS 12z is quite different though with a more zonal pattern that ironically would give much worse weather. Both the ECM and UKMO would be predominently dry (though not necessarily sunny) whereas the 'better' GFS has a band of heavy rain slowly moving down the country. Beyond this range the GFS unsuprisingly shows the Azores high ridging in, but it commonly seems to do this in summer after T+180 in a much similar way to the phantom easterlies in the winter.

In the meantime it looks like a rather cloudy week and wet at times, especially so in the south-east due to the proximity of that low pressure. It is likely to be cool and cloudy on North Sea coasts but with sunny spells further west. Temperatures around average or slightly above by night but cool by day.

[summer blizzard]

Interesting model outputs from the gfs and ecwmf outputs today in the 120 to 240 hour outlook.

gfs goes for an average but wet outlook while the ecwmf goes with a cool but dry outlook.

[Eugene]

Not exactly that interesting though is it with winds from the northwest, some proper heat with temps into the 30's C widespread and a proper thundery breakdown would be interesting but no sign of that yet

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.html - UKMO T+120 hrs fax showing cool northwesterlies with a front from the northwest heading southeastwards over us.

Edited June 6, 2010 by Eugene

[damianslaw]

A generally unsettled outlook with some slow moving bands of rain or tundery showers for many parts in the next 48 hours. Wettest areas look like being central northern england and southern scotland with a slow moving front.

Quite cool by day but milder nights will keep the CET fauirly close to the average I imagine in the next few days.

Mid week onwards a cooler but drier northerly flow looks like developing so hopefully some long spells of sunshine. The azores high is anchored to the south west and does not look like it wants to ridge our way anytime soon, hence, no particularly warm weather this week, signs that some brief ridging could develop in southern parts tail end of weekend..

[SP1986]

The 18z is rather uninspiring, with very little in the way of interest unless you prefer a cool-cold and wet scenario. Ignoring FI and its unlikely transformation to high pressure, the realist timeframe look very cool and very wet with temperatures in many parts in the daytime 4-8C below average.

If this unravels and gets momentum then despite the warm start to June it could well be as bad as last year maybe one of the coolest/wettest in the series.

Bit early I know but its a very real possibility.

[TEITS]

Not exactly that interesting though is it with winds from the northwest, some proper heat with temps into the 30's C widespread and a proper thundery breakdown would be interesting but no sign of that yet

Considering temps reached 27C on Saturday which was followed by some impressive storms for my location. I would say we have only just recently experienced what you described above.

Back to the models and although the output is disappointing im still relieved to see a ridge of HP progged for the England Vs USA match.