Model Output Discussion

[rmc1987]

Interesting run....later today and tomorrow look warmer on this run. Sunday looks to be the day the temps will fall but by how much remains to be seen. Temps in the low 20's for a small section of South England on Wednesday, mmm where did that come from?

A lot cooler out in FI compared to the last run I saw that's for sure.

Edited June 3, 2010 by rmc1987

[SP1986]

Indcision starting to creep into the models now, GFS showing a strange outlook, not the best by any stretch of the imagination either. Has potential but the outlook is quite cool and unsettled once again in the realistic timeframe.

[mushymanrob]

i thought everybody knew what a 'depression' was....

looking like glacier point called it righ going of both the ecm and ukmo.. looking like a mid atlantic ridge later next week will evolve and keep us in a cooler north northeasterly.. whilst the gfs is in la la land after the breakdown.

[The PIT]

i thought everybody knew what a 'depression' was....

looking like glacier point called it righ going of both the ecm and ukmo.. looking like a mid atlantic ridge later next week will evolve and keep us in a cooler north northeasterly.. whilst the gfs is in la la land after the breakdown.

Yes that's what I'm seeing and again a repeat pattern I wonder how long this is going to last.

[SNOW GO]

Widespread very heavy rain risk for Sunday or just a dodgy run??

[Frosty.]

Sunday looks warm, humid and thundery for most of the uk and next week will be dominated by low pressure with widespread showers and temps not as good as the next few days, winds then settle into a NE'ly direction with high pressure to the northwest and low pressure to the northeast, as for further ahead it's anyones guess really but the gfs 00z shows some very warm weather at times in FI followed by a cool windy and unsettled end to the run.

[Eugene]

Not looking too promising for warm weather fans after sunday( a day indoors me thinks with localised flooding a big risk) it must be said, GP's mid atlantic ridge pattern looks like getting going next week already, check out GEM 00Z for the worst kind of mid atlantic ridging, starting to think GP is some sort of weather god

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

[nigelonline]

When will the long range forecast be out? It says update due 28th May...

[TEITS]

Not looking too promising for warm weather fans after sunday( a day indoors me thinks with localised flooding a big risk) it must be said, GP's mid atlantic ridge pattern looks like getting going next week already, check out GEM 00Z for the worst kind of mid atlantic ridging, starting to think GP is some sort of weather god

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

If the 0Z is correct then Sunday looks dreadful with torrential rain, especially across the E Midlands. Beyond this and again if the GFS 0Z is right we could be looking at temps back in the mid 20s by the end of next week.

I called this current warm spell correct and I feel a return to warmth is likely by the end of next week.

[Methuselah]

If the 0Z is correct then Sunday looks dreadful with torrential rain, especially across the E Midlands. Beyond this and again if the GFS 0Z is right we could be looking at temps back in the mid 20s by the end of next week.

I called this current warm spell correct and I feel a return to warmth is likely by the end of next week.

I tend to agree with you, Dave...Is there a pattern developing, I wonder?

[Jezzer]

I tend to agree with you, Dave...Is there a pattern developing, I wonder?

If there is a wet and dry pattern developing I hope Glastonbury falls on the right side, has to be said that the 12th June looks good for the opening weekend of England's World Cup campaign, plenty of BBQ's across the country if that were to materialise

[MP-R]

Well an outlook that's far from disastrous. A real mixed bag which would make June a much more interesting month.

Most certainly becoming unsettled from Sunday with torrential downpours a very high possibility just about anywhere then a shallow low flirting with us until at least Wednesday. After that, high pressure returns from the SW bringing warm (not hot) sunshine for at least the southern half of the country. Then, a much more autumnal unsettled outlook from around the 16th onwards though that's ages away and is bound to change.

As for now, best enjoy today's and tomorrow's sunshine. Already warming up a lot here.

[Ben_Cambs]

The FAX chart for Sunday, 12pm: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=60&carte=2000

The GFS 0z predicts up to 40mm on Sunday, Eastern areas will (at the moment) see the most precipitation:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201006040000&VAR=rsum&HH=69&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201006040000&VAR=koin&HH=60&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

At the moment, Lincolnshire, East Midlands and up to Humberside will see the heaviest of the PPN.

All subject to change of course.

[BornFromTheVoid]

06z GFS and ECM showing something a little cooler possible though not exceptionally so. In the meantime, some warm weather to enjoy with a slight thundery risk into early next week. Amazingly though, still no sign of the ol' prolonged southwesterlies we were once so used to

Edited June 4, 2010 by NaDamantaSam

[Tom D]

Does anybody know why the 7-day forecasts aren't updating?

[Paul]

Because the NOAA have some data issues which means some of the files are coming through corrupt.

[Tom D]

Because the NOAA have some data issues which means some of the files are coming through corrupt.

OK thanks, hopefully it will be sorted soon

[mushymanrob]

I called this current warm spell correct and I feel a return to warmth is likely by the end of next week.

i thought you said 'the second week in june'...

interesting, the 06z trough has quite alot of warm upper air in its circulation, and with a ridge extending from the north atlantic right over to scandinavia, it cuts off any really cool air. so that wouldnt be bad at all IF it came off that way.

Edited June 4, 2010 by mushymanrob

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looking at the precipitation & temperature outputs, the warmth from the warmer airmass would be felt exclusively through higher overnight temperatures. Some moderate-heavy frontal rain is progged to sit across central and southern parts of Britain with only brief interruptions from T+96 out to T+180, with temperatures suppressed at 11-14C in many areas as a result- a consequence of low pressure being progged further south with the frontal mass stuck over Britain and the bright showery weather to the south stuck over France.

A better outlook for those hoping for some steady frontal rain to water the gardens, not so good for warmth, sunshine or convection/thunderstorms.

[Nick F]

A better outlook for those hoping for some steady frontal rain to water the gardens, not so good for warmth, sunshine or convection/thunderstorms.

Looking at 06z GFS, looks like we will hang on to the warm air across southern UK on Monday with temps in the low 20s with winds from the SW - though across northern UK winds look to be from the east making it cooler here. Into Tuesday, depending on where the low ends up, there is potential for heavy showers/tunderstorms south of wherever the frontal boundary sets up on Tuesday with an upper cold pool and perhaps sunshine south of frontal rain, winds to the north of the boundary look to be easterly so supressing temps. Beyond Tuesday, does look generally cool everywhere with winds from a northerly quarter, cloudy at times with rain in the east and north

[snowlover2009]

say what you want about 06z, but that run could look no different to the 00z, unbelievable. from wedensday the azores was building really nicely on 00z and then next run it has got the low pressure winding up still over the uk and europe midweek. i will wait for 2 more runs from gfs and ecm and ukmo and the minor models to decide how long the cooler and unsettled weather next week will last.

however next week isnt too bad if you want rain and maybe downpours and thundery outbreaks at times.

no cold nights and quite mild in the showers. temps around average.

Edited June 4, 2010 by snowlover2009

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/gfs/precipitations/45h.htm

looking on here its going to get wet to very wet from the 5 june to at least the 11 so enjoy todays sunshire then get the rain coats ready!!!

[frostyjoe]

http://www.meteociel...tations/45h.htm

looking on here its going to get wet to very wet from the 5 june to at least the 11 so enjoy todays sunshire then get the rain coats ready!!!

We'll believe when we see it i haven't seen rain for ages, we were ment to get rain all day today and its 23c here now with NO rain.

[Kentish Kiwi]

We'll believe when we see it i haven't seen rain for ages, we were ment to get rain all day today and its 23c here now with NO rain.

I'm not quite sure what forecast you were looking at. But the BBC/MetO one only had scattered showers and sunny spells, certainly no sign of 'rain all day', where did you get that impression from??

[The PIT]

Again no data too look at.... Apart from the ukmo which shows an unsettled outlook.