Model Output Discussion

[TonyH]

Today is the last poor day until sunday according to the GFS 00z,

Today is the first poor day since Saturday here.

[The Northern Ramper]

It rained here until mid afternoon Saturday and then has been dry and pleasant since until today, hardly a poor bank holiday.

Interesting that the ECM is showing warm air fighting back next week after the breakdown, a June like the one forecast on weather outlook is what i would love to see.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Nice to see the models keeping the majority dry and warm until the weekend.After that a spell of unsettled remains

fav but for how long is anyones guess.

Wouldn't be suprised to the SE to hit 25 maybe 26degrees Thur/Fri.

[SP1986]

The ECM and GEM playing around with scenarios that would allow warm air back in, but I think these are just models playing around with outcomes, I still think unsettled is the realistic prospect without a doubt - however I don't think it'll necessarily cool down much relatively, it'll still feel mild and humid way after the weekend with prospects of thundery showers in the west..

It won't be benign put it that way.

[Weather-history]

I don't know if members are aware of this but there are mean ECM pressure charts available now.

Here's the mean ECM 500hpa chart for 144hrs

Compare to mean GFS 144hr chart

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m6.gif

Edited June 1, 2010 by Mr_Data

[nigelonline]

When Will the Netweather long term forecast be issued?

[conor123]

The GFS 06z has not trended towards the ECM in any warm, in fact its backed off the semi spanish plume even more allowing westerly winds in quicker.

[Jezzer]

The GFS 06z has not trended towards the ECM in any warm, in fact its backed off the semi spanish plume even more allowing westerly winds in quicker.

All the early chat of June being dominated by High pressures seems a long way off now

[MP-R]

All the early chat of June being dominated by High pressures seems a long way off now

Most certainly though fortunately the current GFS run doesn't show the Atlantic train any more.

On Sunday, winds looks westerly so that would surely lower chances of any thundery breakdown by quite a lot. If anything, a cooler day the further west one goes:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.png

Then a weakening low over the top of the UK with rather slack winds by next Tuesday:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.png

UK remainds under lower pressure until the end of the week when the Azores High starts to move northwards again, perhaps cloudy at first but much more settled:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2521.png

Then the high of the top of the UK which would ensure warmer and sunnier weather for the majority:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3241.png

Yes, it's all FI after the weekend but I have to say the models look much better than they did yesterday which simply showed 2007 all over again. A more episodic month with a settled few days then an unsettled few days is almost perfect - the weather isn't the same for long periods of time and the gardens can get rain at the same time as we can enjoy sunshine in the settled spells. That's my take on it anyway.

[SP1986]

The 6z is probably the one to go with, I'm surprised a little that previous runs held onto the warmth at all, for me this is not the best evolution, it would feel chilly in the westerly winds and temperature would most likely struggle to get above 15C even in sunshine with frequent 'cold rain' events it would feel decidedly Autumnal.

I hope it's somewhat of an outlier but I don't think it's wise to doubt the GFS evolution of the 6z, it's probably doing the best out of all models at the moment.

[ANYWEATHER]

All the early chat of June being dominated by High pressures seems a long way off now

Yes, quite true.! The 06z run is unsettled all the way except for a few transcient ridges![although not saying it will be like that!] Of course before than we have got todays rain to get over with and a few fine settled days to look forward to!

[Jezzer]

Yes, quite true.! The 06z run is unsettled all the way except for a few transcient ridges![although not saying it will be like that!] Of course before than we have got todays rain to get over with and a few fine settled days to look forward to!

As long as Glastonbury is dry I'll be happy, nervous wait for me and plenty of others. I'll be tracking the models with nervous anticipation over the next few weeks

[mushymanrob]

The GFS 06z has not trended towards the ECM in any warm, in fact its backed off the semi spanish plume even more allowing westerly winds in quicker.

........ until fi ! the 06z is great in fi for heat/thunderstorm activity. alas its always in fi .

[The Northern Ramper]

When Will the Netweather long term forecast be issued?

Thursday 27th May

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Putting aside exact details of pressure height/depth at this distance, the latest GFS is in good agreement with the ECM with the broad pattern to the start of next week.

[Frosty.]

awsome summer then thundery weather = more summer weather.

Hope so, I love storms and high humidity and the ingrediants will be there by the weekend with pressure falling and high temps with a good chance of thundery showers sparking off together with more organised thundery rain and some of the gardens do need some serious rain already but today has produced a spell of heavy rain in places but we could then get 4 days of lovely summer weather with temps between 23-26c. B)

Today is the first poor day since Saturday here.

Thankfully most if not all of the uk will enjoy a very summery spell until later in the weekend which makes a change from just the southeast.

[Glacier Point]

Putting aside exact details of pressure height/depth at this distance, the latest GFS is in good agreement with the ECM with the broad pattern to the start of next week.

Indeed Tamara, the GFS 06z and ECM 00z ensemble mean anomalies are in excellent agreement on the overall longwave pattern at t168 through t240:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNH168.gif

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zGFSEnsembles500mbHeightAnomalyNH168.gif

This mid Atlantic ridge idea extending towards Iceland is very consistent with the Global Wind Oscillation trending towards phase 8. It's also an idea we are going to having to get used to this summer I think.

I think the trend will be for the upper low to steadily fill allowing less unsettled conditions to filter through 2nd week of June through week 3 and then the mid Atlantic ridge returns.

[rmc1987]

I have to say, as odd as it may sound, this kind of weather can be nice. I'll pay for saying this over the summer now no doubt...!

Confused? You may be, but I mean the fresh air, it's not too chilly out, the birds are singing and it's quite calm. The rain has stopped but there's that earthy smell. I find the r

sound of rain quite pleasant though. Couldn't cope with it too long though just the odd day is ok. At this time I'd prefer to see the sun over this. You could say all weather interests me although I'd like to see the seasons relevant weather overall.

I'm a heat lover too which is probably why I loves my time in South India from November '07 to Sept '08 as I experienced the dry season with building heat then the breaking of the incredible South West Monsoon.

Sorry if this makes no sense, I do know what I mean though ;-)

[Jezzer]

I think the trend will be for the upper low to steadily fill allowing less unsettled conditions to filter through 2nd week of June through week 3 and then the mid Atlantic ridge returns.

Thanks GP, so what does this mean in terms of the type of weather we can expect in mid June, what defines the mid Atlantic ridge in meteorology terms?

Many thanks

[MR EXTREMES]

Indeed Tamara, the GFS 06z and ECM 00z ensemble mean anomalies are in excellent agreement on the overall longwave pattern at t168 through t240:

http://raleighwx.eas...nomalyNH168.gif

http://raleighwx.eas...nomalyNH168.gif

This mid Atlantic ridge idea extending towards Iceland is very consistent with the Global Wind Oscillation trending towards phase 8. It's also an idea we are going to having to get used to this summer I think.

I think the trend will be for the upper low to steadily fill allowing less unsettled conditions to filter through 2nd week of June through week 3 and then the mid Atlantic ridge returns.

if i remember rightly you said something similar over a week ago and it all makes perfect sense to me.

its looking better at last.

nice one gp good stuff.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

if i remember rightly you said something similar over a week ago and it all makes perfect sense to me.

its looking better at last.

nice one gp good stuff.

Not sure Gp's post is positive in a summer sense.Mid Atlantic high ridging to Iceland is not good news for settled

warm weather.

[Jezzer]

Happy days, you just answered my query, so it's not positive news then!?

BBC Weather forecast just said there should be no significant rainfall until well into next week, they seem to think that low is going to stall to the west

Edited June 1, 2010 by Jezzer

[BlueHedgehog074]

Really liking the appearance of ECMWF's latest run, particularly from around Wednesday onwards (around 192 hours): http://wetterzentral...s/Recm1921.html where it would sure show potential for some stormy weather to spill in from the South, and perhaps get convection going in inland areas. :o

[mushymanrob]

BBC Weather forecast just said there should be no significant rainfall until well into next week, they seem to think that low is going to stall to the west

yeah, i heard them say that... tbh i think they are daft to say such a thing as theres no certainty that itll remain settled for a week.

[Spurry]

yeah, i heard them say that... tbh i think they are daft to say such a thing as theres no certainty that itll remain settled for a week.

Very strange , considering that Laura Tobin forecast a wash out on friday in yesterdays country file forecast