Model Output Discussion

[peterf]

surprised anyone still listens to any media forecasts. :o

[chrisharry007]

ECMWF 12z has now come in line with GFS regarding low pressure positioning next week wed/thu

And i'm off to Whitley Bay for a week :o

[MR EXTREMES]

Not sure Gp's post is positive in a summer sense.Mid Atlantic high ridging to Iceland is not good news for settled

warm weather.

i would of thought a mid alantic ridge would be better than low pressure dominated alantic,

unless of coarse depressions slip over top of heights in the mid alantic,

but this all depends on where high pressure is situated,

could be average but sunny which would not be the worst.

but slack heights would also be good for storms its really not 100% set in stone yet so for now looking warmer with possible thundery showers and humid for a time.

there after is anyones guess i think there has been alot of negitive posts pointing towards a summer washout which is also not a cert.

but one thing is the alantic is nowhere near dominating as much as some washout summers im very sure this summer will be average or slightly above but then this could change at anytime.

[Eugene]

ECMWF 12z has now come in line with GFS regarding low pressure positioning next week wed/thu

And i'm off to Whitley Bay for a week

I feel your pain chris, very frustrating when you have holidays planned the weather decides to change seasons on you, you would think in June the weather would be reliable but not in the UK of course, looks like turning autumnal again next week with strong winds and rain, todays temps were only 12C in many parts which is shocking for June.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I feel your pain chris, very frustrating when you have holidays planned the weather decides to change seasons on you, you would think in June the weather would be reliable but not in the UK of course, looks like turning autumnal again next week with strong winds and rain, todays temps were only 12C in many parts which is shocking for June.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

Yep i have felt for some days that we are looking at a spell of unsettled weather as we hit the 2nd week

of june.On a positive note the next 4 or 5 days look fantastic so its not all doom and gloom

[patrickshere]

I'm going to download festival in Derbyshire next week from wednesday, if the forecast is correct I might sell my friggin ticket.

Edited June 1, 2010 by mituozo

[MR EXTREMES]

I feel your pain chris, very frustrating when you have holidays planned the weather decides to change seasons on you, you would think in June the weather would be reliable but not in the UK of course, looks like turning autumnal again next week with strong winds and rain, todays temps were only 12C in many parts which is shocking for June.

http://www.wetterzen...chester_ens.png

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif

certainly wernt 12c here in portsmouth it was very mild infact close to muggy infact it feel pretty warm still.

looking better for the rest of the week though.

[Uncle_Barty]

certainly wernt 12c here in portsmouth it was very mild infact close to muggy infact it feel pretty warm still.

looking better for the rest of the week though.

12c or less here for the bulk of the day.

[Milhouse]

FI is absolutely awful i will agree on that but its very annoying when we have 5 nice summery days to come and everyone is talking about whats going to happen after. Temps should be widely reaching 19/20c tomorrow which should mean a very welcome return to summer.

[cyclonic happiness]

FI is absolutely awful i will agree on that but its very annoying when we have 5 nice summery days to come and everyone is talking about whats going to happen after. Temps should be widely reaching 19/20c tomorrow which should mean a very welcome return to summer.

FI is still in "winter" mode , ie, showing the opposite that may happen...all winter long it was showing mild.

Don't take notice of anything past about +96 hours, it has gernerally gone the way of the pear for ages now.

[Harry]

Yeah the temperature forecasts have been generally dire.

The blind panic about "12C coming up"...I very much doubt that, especially after a very warm spell...the troughs coming up do appear to be surrounding by milder/warm air, so even though it may well windy and wet, I'm not convinced it will bring 12C air temperatures...

I sit and wait to be proved wrong nevertheless lol

[Jezzer]

FI is still in "winter" mode , ie, showing the opposite that may happen...all winter long it was showing mild.

Don't take notice of anything past about +96 hours, it has gernerally gone the way of the pear for ages now.

we can only hope, if this June goes Pete Tong there will be a lot of unhappy people around

[BlueHedgehog074]

ECMWF 12z has now come in line with GFS regarding low pressure positioning next week wed/thu

and

And i'm off to Whitley Bay for a week

Welcome to the website, dude.

Yeah, I must admit with the Low now postioned more further to the East on ECMWF's latest 12Z update, really not looking that inviting for next week. Hope that the GFS and ECMWF show the Low being less of an influence in their further runs.

Really liking the appearance of ECMWF's latest run, particularly from around Wednesday onwards (around 192 hours): http://wetterzentral...s/Recm1921.html where it would sure show potential for some stormy weather to spill in from the South, and perhaps get convection going in inland areas.

Just in case the link causes confusion, I will just quickly mention it now re-directs to the newer ECMWF 12Z update instead of the older 00Z run, where the storm pontential is decreased with the heart of the Low placed around the centre of the United Kingdom. The postioning cuts off the Southerly wind direction which would help fuel the thunderstorm potential with the winds circulating anti-clockwise around the Low Pressure.

Edited June 1, 2010 by Rainbow Snow

[conor123]

It never fails to surprise me how people think anything beyond 96hrs is set in stone.

Yes the ECM has moved the way of the GFS on the 12z but the 00z was completely different and will most likely change again.

The ensembles are generally around average for the time of year, and some of them even go above 15c 850pHa so how anyone can say Autumn is arriving at the beginning of June is just baffling.

Edited June 1, 2010 by conor123

[MR EXTREMES]

It never fails to surprise me how people think anything beyond 96hrs is set in stone.

Yes the ECM has moved the way of the GFS on the 12z but the 00z was completely different and will most likely change again.

The ensembles are generally around average for the time of year, and some of them even go above 15c 850pHa so how anyone can say Autumn is arriving at the beginning of June is just baffling.

yep i agree very much its a case of wait and see autumn does not look likely at all.

[SP1986]

There's denial and then there's more denial, the GFS has been the best model throughout this, none of this pussyfooting around that the ECM has been doing.

There's little doubt the GFS has called this right.

[Jezzer]

I'm hoping GP's latest analysis provides more positive news for the weeks ahead

[mushymanrob]

i would of thought a mid alantic ridge would be better than low pressure dominated alantic,

unless of coarse depressions slip over top of heights in the mid alantic,

but this all depends on where high pressure is situated,

could be average but sunny which would not be the worst.

but slack heights would also be good for storms its really not 100% set in stone yet so for now looking warmer with possible thundery showers and humid for a time.

there after is anyones guess i think there has been alot of negitive posts pointing towards a summer washout which is also not a cert.

but one thing is the alantic is nowhere near dominating as much as some washout summers im very sure this summer will be average or slightly above but then this could change at anytime.

a mid atlantic ridge would mean cool weather and no chance of thunderstorms, in fact for thunderstorms you need exactly the opposite synoptics, heights to our east. plus the past three summers wasnt dominated by the atlantic, they were dominated by northern blocking which is on the cards yet again. but nothing is set in stone, not even the ecm!

[MR EXTREMES]

a mid atlantic ridge would mean cool weather and no chance of thunderstorms, in fact for thunderstorms you need exactly the opposite synoptics, heights to our east. plus the past three summers wasnt dominated by the atlantic, they were dominated by northern blocking which is on the cards yet again. but nothing is set in stone, not even the ecm!

ok but mid alantic ridge can produce nice settled weather all be it average.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The mid-Atlantic ridge often means dry sunny weather in the west and rather cold, cloudy weather in the east- a lot depends on how far east the high gets. The first half of June 1995 had a dominant mid-Atlantic ridge and was a good case in point.

Mushymanrob is right about thunderstorms- again referring back to June 1995, that month saw a notable lack of thunder activity in most areas of the UK, the only exceptions being parts of the northeast which saw some thundery showers from cyclonic NW regimes, mainly the 1st, 2nd and 7th. Unless you get a prominent Scandinavian Low you probably aren't going to see any thunder activity anywhere in the UK with a mid-Atlantic ridge.

However it only takes a small eastward shift of that pattern and suddenly Britain is sat under high pressure.

[Harry]

If it's anything like last year I'll be delighted

Average number of thunderstorms and multiple dry and hot spells

[chapmanslade]

Anything after the weekend is white noise on the ensembles

So much inter run change I find it amazing that people read so much into it.

[patrickshere]

Anything after the weekend is white noise on the ensembles

So much inter run change I find it amazing that people read so much into it.

Eh?

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100601/12/prmslBuckinghamshire.png

That's quite conclusive to me. Dry spell up until ~6th/7th, then rain/wind to come. It's just a degree of how bad it'll be. The ensembles aren't exactly spread until 9th/10th. ~4 of which go for something warm/sunny appearing.

[Jezzer]

I'm heading to bed with nothing but positive thoughts. I'm looking forward to the next few days of proper summer weather and not going to worry about what could be a poor forecast for next week, hoping things may change for the better!

[patrickshere]

Well, towards FI on this run is looking like it could turn out well. There's hope for june 9th->14th/download yet!

Edited June 1, 2010 by mituozo