Model Output Discussion

[patrickshere]

No secondary low at +108 which is nice on the 18z GFS.

Perhaps this'll be a bit more inline with the ECM with a quicker return to more settled weather.

[Thundery wintry showers]

GFS more in line with ECM on its 18Z- a warm dry sunny period followed by some fairly widespread showers & thunderstorms I would've thought, as the high pressure is slowly replaced with low pressure and light winds. Indeed the precipitation outputs point to high thunderstorm potential.

Into FI we'd probably see cooler, cloudier, drier weather advance from the NE as the low slips slowly away SE, though the ECM has an Azores ridge attempt to re-assert towards T+240 bringing something warmer & sunnier again- all conjecture at this range of course!

[SP1986]

A decent model output from the 18z, in a nutshell; mild-warm, humid and potentially thundery. The loss of the deep low should it occur is definitely a plus as it will mean warm air doesn't move away so easily, allowing thunderstorm potential as said previously.

[mushymanrob]

i dont think the thunderstorm risk is that high, unless you call an odd thunder clap in rain a thunderstorm! i dont. looking at the fax i dont think theres a deep enough draw on southerly air.

uncertainty into next week as to whether there is a return to settled or unsettled will win.

[SNOW GO]

By the looks of the latest GFS the unsettled conditions look the most likely to set in by next week, prehaps with some thundery action depending on how long we hang on to the higher temperatures.

[SP1986]

Still looks fairly humid, I imaagine similar conditions to those of last year in early June were temperatures were not too high but there was high humidity and surprise storms around this area.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Not (personally) liking the outlook from later Saturday with several days of potential downpours to endure . A hint from the ECM that stable high pressure and sunshine may return later next week, but unfortunately this cannot be relied on. A case of hoping to miss any deluges as much as possible.

Edited June 3, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[The PIT]

GFS in deep FI looks like a re-run with northerlies coming down once again. Still looks like next week will be unsettled though.

[Thundery wintry showers]

GFS and ECM still disagree over FI but I think there is a high probability of dull cool dry weather via north-easterlies (nope, dry doesn't always mean sunny!) to follow in from the low pressure around the 10th June, the ECM shows high pressure nosing in from the west and promising something warmer & sunnier (as did yesterday's 12Z) but GFS continues to have low pressure areas stream in. Either looks plausible.

Interestingly potential for thundery showers is quite low for East Anglia and the SE on the 06Z run with most of the activity further north and west but the distribution of precipitation is bound to be revised considerably on future runs. Dry and sunny today, then tomorrow sees scattered thundery showers develop over the Midlands and perhaps tracking into NE England as well. The weekend should see showers and thunderstorms become rather more widespread, and with slacker low pressure forecast for early to mid next week, showers and thunderstorms look set to be the theme over most of England and Wales.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the southerly positioning of the low may mean a slow-moving band of cold, dull, very wet weather affects southern Scotland and parts of north-east England- I've seen that happen many times during my years of living in Tyneside.

[Eugene]

Dire 00Z ensembles from GFS i see, really dire with plenty of rainfall, enjoy the next three days including today is what i say because the lovely perfect warm sunny summer weather looks like being replaced by wet and increasingly cooler weather from early next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

[SP1986]

In complete opposition to Eugenes comments, the outlook looks pretty good if you like changeable, showery and potentially thundery weather. The outlook after the warm weather is likely to continue fairly warm and humid, which is a change from the original predictions by the models.

It is actually a good outlook for everyone, as it has something for everyone I think (except diehard cold lovers).

So to sum it up, changeable, showery, potentially thundery, humid, and perhaps indications of high pressure ridging in again later on.

A good outlook I'd say, for now

[SNOW GO]

A long way away yet but after next weeks washout drier, warmer weather maybe returning??

Edited June 3, 2010 by SNOW GO

[Thundery wintry showers]

I have a sneaking suspicion that the southerly positioning of the low may mean a slow-moving band of cold, dull, very wet weather affects southern Scotland and parts of north-east England- I've seen that happen many times during my years of living in Tyneside.

Just checked on the GFS 06Z run and GFS has the aforementioned area of rain over northern Scotland, so early to mid next week is looking cool, dull and wet for N Scotland and relatively warm, bright, showery and thundery everywhere else. The scenario I described will only happen if the low's positioning gets revised further south on subsequent runs.

I see that GFS 06Z FI builds high pressure into the north bringing a generally easterly flow- warm, humid and thundery for the south, dry and sunny for the NW and cool and cloudy for the NE would be the most likely result of such synoptics.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

A case of hoping to miss any deluges as much as possible.

The latest GFS obliges with an escape for this weekend in this regard and shows a dry weekend here - but there is far far too much time and too many outputs for things to change subsequently of course. However, the idea of the main mass of activity over France shunted NE'wards away from this corner, as has been seen before, is something to hope for (at least for a minority of us). Also those further north and west are most welcome to such a distribution of their own too.

However, if hypothetically the GFS 06z did verify over the weekend, then there is still next week which looks pretty ropey - from a dry quiet pleasant weather point of view anyway. Come back Azores High - all is forgiven!

Edited June 3, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Frosty.]

indeed its looking like there will be a gradual decline in the weather away from warm sunny and dry weather to wetter, windier, and cooler into next week. id be very surprised if something like the expected synoptics as shown on the gfs didnt happen now. next wednesday in particular could be very wet in the south if that small low tracks over southern counties. hopefully things wont be quite as bad... but my earlier optimism has all but vanished.

Today's GFS 06z is more promising in the longer range with a chance of some very warm continental air over the uk at times but next week still looks like being showery, with sunny starts and then heavy showers with a risk of thunder in the afternoons and evenings which is actually very interesting weather and then a chance of high pressure bringing warmer and settled weather back. The next few days look lovely but sunday we will see pressure dropping from the south with thundery showers breaking out.

Edited June 3, 2010 by Frosty039

[RichardR]

Good God it seems like I've tuned into "negative central" here on the forum, with tons of pointless pessimism flying around. From what I make of the models, dry and warm for the next three days, then some very thundery and showery weather next week and once again warm and humid temps sticking around for most areas. Looks very decent indeed. We need more rain anyway.

[Buzzit]

I agree with Richard

Too many commentators here seem to have been getting unduly pessimistic reading Glacier Points posts in the techincal thread and getting caught up with the long range forecast from the weather...

The models are returning to what they forecast late May (example SE reaching 22-25 every day) and this trend will continue throughout June and rain is quite welcome as it limits the uncomfortableness for many people caused by a long stretch of hot weather

And judging by latest ensembles FI is 4 days in any case

Edited June 3, 2010 by Buzzit

[SP1986]

To be fair, I'm not seeing much negativity, only one post I've read this morning stands out for negativity.

I think there is a lot to be positive about regarding the model output, however of course we must all realise that to get to this point there have been subtle changes in the outlook, and thing are likely to change again.

[The Northern Ramper]

Any predictions for the second half of this month?

[mushymanrob]

Good God it seems like I've tuned into "negative central" here on the forum, with tons of pointless pessimism flying around. From what I make of the models, dry and warm for the next three days, then some very thundery and showery weather next week and once again warm and humid temps sticking around for most areas. Looks very decent indeed. We need more rain anyway.

because all previous gfs runs HAVE been the type of charts that would lead to 'negetive' comments, showing cool, changable, wet weather... (after these few days of 'summer'. )we are here to discuss what the charts show and if they show 'poor' summer weather then the comments will reflect that.

however, the 06z is much better and is more in line with the ecm and ukmo. fi offers some real heat and thundery activity ... i like it... but its 1 run in fi.

Edited June 3, 2010 by mushymanrob

[Gordon]

Well from a selfish point of view Thunderstorms would not be welcome as I don't like them but we need a little more rain and that would be welcome

Edit - BBC's latest forecast still has the focus on more Eastern/South Eastern parts for possible storms on sunday but most places should still see showers

It'll probably all change again by Tomorrow

Edited June 3, 2010 by Gordon

[SNOW GO]

The BBC going for thundery action torwards the East at the weekend where as Met monkey going for the North and midlands at moderate risk of thunderstorms from Sunday. Which one will be right?

[The PIT]

Probably neither over all looks a low risk and too early too say really. Better judging thundery prospects the evening before and even then it's a risky business. Until then warm to hot then we could have something interesting.

[Gordon]

So basically it's a waiting game

[The PIT]

So basically it's a waiting game

Always is in these cases. By tomorrow the threat could be zero or higher.