Model Output Discussion

[damianslaw]

The theme for high pressure to keep ridging north west as opposed to north east over the country continues - this will mean preety average conditions all round for the foreseeable future, never particularly warm or cool, never too wet or dry, good if you like average weather but dull viewing for those who like extreme conditions.

It is still very early days with this summer, and synoptics in early-mid June very rarely dominate the rest of the summer, the latter part of June from around the 21st is when we should be looking with very keen interest for an insight into the rest of the summer as this is often a pivotal time when the atlantic traditionally begins to stir and when patterns are often set, should the mid atlantic ridge be persisting around then... nothing better than an average summer with perhaps one or two warm/very warm spells could be on the cards for the better part of the season,with perhaps a later hot spell but not enough to salvage what will have been an average summer at best though not the washout of 2007 or 2008.

[mushymanrob]

Ok fair enough but i love dry cold frosty weather in the winter, much better than mild, wet and windy, cold with clear blue skies in winter is just fantastic for taking long walks in the countryside, anybody else agree?

not me...i like mild weather in winter, i like winter walks in the countryside in wild, stormy mild atlantic weather in winter, its nice.

dont like the ecm much, reluctant to follow the ukmo and gfs in building pressure over us, instead plumping for a notherly then westerly with atlantic fronts.. eventually. but hey ho... the ecm shouldnt be dismissed just because it doesnt show favourable synoptics.

Edited June 9, 2010 by mushymanrob

[SP1986]

The 18z GFS really struggles to get the high pressure over the UK, it only just make it. We're therefore looking at a settled, though not necessarily sunny outlook. Quite cool as well.

[mushymanrob]

morning weather watchers.... good agreement between the umko and ecm around t120-144 , high ridging to our northwest, cool quite stiff northeasterly breeze in the southeast. the gfs has pressure higher over us before into fi it slowly builds to our east, resulting in a nice hot spell.

so the settling down is still on, but its delaying even further, remember, it was expected this weekend but its looking like itll be tuesday before we all get 'better' weather. meanwhile this rather horrible, cloudy, windy, regime looks set to plague us .

[The PIT]

Looks like some dull grey rubbish for eastern areas while it will brighten in the west. GFS has some silly cold nights as cloud off the North sea will keep the temperatures up. Otherwise it looks like the disappointing June will continue for a while yet.

There isn't any sign of a hot spell in the GFS. The ECM in deep FI is a little more hopefully but I can't see any heat waves for the foreseeable future with the present runs. I haven't looked at the UKMO though.

[johnholmes]

Otherwise it looks like the disappointing June will continue for a while yet.

come on Pit,'we', and I imagine 'you' have had 4 days out of 10 so far with temps over 25C, hardly your desciption of the 10 days taken as a whole is it?

not good today or the past 2 days here but we are still well above the June mean and max values with the 4 days I commented on.

I prefer the glass half full approach rather than half empty but each to their own.

and to get back to the models all 3 suggest a reasonable spell from early next week, indeed some places could get a reasonable weekend before then.

Edited June 10, 2010 by johnholmes

[Kentish Kiwi]

Liking the look of the ECM from +144 (nice for the west from around +120) onwards which shows a pleasant evolution of the progged mid-Atlantic ridge, moving just far east enough that we are not stuck under its southern arm with easterlies off the still cool north sea.

The GFS too is a nice run but it only really gets going for eastern areas outside of the reliable timeframe.

UKMO at +120 and +144 looks a little unpleasant for the SE with a keen NEerly. Although there were plenty of time during the winter where we saw similar set-up's only for the high to move slightly to the south and east with the real cold weather (in the form of the easterly/north easterly) being pushed into France, with us left with cold but calm condition more under the high pressure rather than its southern periphery and associated easterly winds. At this time of the year that would give us pleasant conditions, then again that was the winter and now that its the summer patterns do and have changed.

All in all really not a bad output, though as always the good weather is being 'pushed-back' somewhat, we are likely to catch up with it sooner or later. Certainly no train of Atlantic lows and westerlies, or any 'June Monsoon'.

[The PIT]

come on Pit,'we', and I imagine 'you' have had 4 days out of 10 so far with temps over 25C, hardly your desciption of the 10 days taken as a whole is it?

not good today or the past 2 days here but we are still well above the June mean and max values with the 4 days I commented on.

I prefer the glass half full approach rather than half empty but each to their own.

and to get back to the models all 3 suggest a reasonable spell from early next week, indeed some places could get a reasonable weekend before then.

One day over 25c and six days with cloud and rain out of ten. One of those days was also warm humid and very uncomfortable. The saving grace was watching for storms. I wouldn't call it brilliant and if you like cloud and grey skies that's up to you but you were moaning in the past about that as well inviting another poster too visit.

It's possible the high won't bring cloudy skies off the north sea but more often or not it does. I did also say it would brighten in the west perhaps I should have said any decent weather in the west.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

I prefer the glass half full approach rather than half empty but each to their own.

and often that puts you in a minority on here !!! Going back over the past two months on this thread and distilling certain posters comments (and I don't actually mean PIT) you'd think we've had, and are heading for, one of the worst summers ever. And the strange thing is neither what has happened so far nor what the models have previously shown or continue to show would support anything like this. It really does appear that some people get a perverse pleasure from posting just how bad it is, or is going to be, even if what they base that on is at best flimsy. All I can see from the current outlook is a steadily improving picture, with the medium term on all major models suggesting a return to nice summer weather. OK, this week has been poor, but that's off the back of a generally pretty good spell the previous week, and if my memory serves me correctly, that'd be the third thoroughly pleasant warm spell so far this spring/summer, and we're only in June !!! So compared to the last two summers that's already a marked improvement.

Edited June 10, 2010 by Pennine Ten Foot Drifts

[johnholmes]

and often that puts you in a minority on here !!!

OK, this week has been poor, but that's off the back of a generally pretty good spell the previous week, and if my memory serves me correctly, that'd be the third thoroughly pleasant warm spell so far this spring/summer, and we're only in June !!! So compared to the last two summers that's already a marked improvement.

yes I've had what I would describe as two summery spells since mid May

18-24 May and 2-5 June.

In each spell the average max was 24-25C or more, no rain neither period, and a fair amount of sunshine, especially the May spell.

Looking ahead then tomorrow seems warm with still a chance that the weekend may end up with just above average max's and, if we go out into FI territory, then Wed into Saturday next week looks like getting into very warm levels.

So nothing to get downhearted with it seems to me.

Most guides to the summer to me suggest no prolonged heat waves but neither any prolonged wet and cool/very cool weather. A rather good mix really, not too hot for too long nor to cool and wet for too long - dare I say it perhaps forgotten 'typical' English summer could be what we will look back on by 1 September.

For those enjoying half empty glasses, cheer up, its the longest day in 11 days, we can then look forward to shortening days and winter!

Edited June 10, 2010 by johnholmes

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

As someone who enjoys the weather, no matter what it is, the FAX chart for 24Hrs looks a mess.

Lots of rain on there, especially for parts of the south, I'm just glad I'm not in the Benelux region of Europe, looks awful there.

As for next week, looking much better than this one

Edited June 10, 2010 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[MR EXTREMES]

yes I've had what I would describe as two summery spells since mid May

18-24 May and 2-5 June.

In each spell the average max was 24-25C or more, no rain neither period, and a fair amount of sunshine, especially the May spell.

Looking ahead then tomorrow seems warm with still a chance that the weekend may end up with just above average max's and, if we go out into FI territory, then Wed into Saturday next week looks like getting into very warm levels.

So nothing to get downhearted with it seems to me.

Most guides to the summer to me suggest no prolonged heat waves but neither any prolonged wet and cool/very cool weather. A rather good mix really, not too hot for too long nor to cool and wet for too long - dare I say it perhaps forgotten 'typical' English summer could be what we will look back on by 1 September.

For those enjoying half empty glasses, cheer up, its the longest day in 11 days, we can then look forward to shortening days and winter!

i agree john very much a british summer and even today its cloudy but very warm.

its great to see average summers or maybe slightly above better than watching people die in heatwaves.

[TonyH]

and often that puts you in a minority on here !!! Going back over the past two months on this thread and distilling certain posters comments (and I don't actually mean PIT) you'd think we've had, and are heading for, one of the worst summers ever. And the strange thing is neither what has happened so far nor what the models have previously shown or continue to show would support anything like this. It really does appear that some people get a perverse pleasure from posting just how bad it is, or is going to be, even if what they base that on is at best flimsy. All I can see from the current outlook is a steadily improving picture, with the medium term on all major models suggesting a return to nice summer weather. OK, this week has been poor, but that's off the back of a generally pretty good spell the previous week, and if my memory serves me correctly, that'd be the third thoroughly pleasant warm spell so far this spring/summer, and we're only in June !!! So compared to the last two summers that's already a marked improvement.

I agree. Certain posts/posters tend to be misleading as they paint a negative picture of present and future weather that is often just typical British weather. This year has proven dry and fairly sunny so far, yet constantly through this Spring it has been portrayed as cold (actuality rather cool/ average). Even this week, that we were led to believe would be very cool and very wet, has turned out average at worse, and the rain has not affected all areas, there have been warm sunny intervals, mild nights and humidity. Now we have posters suggesting widespread rural ground frosts next week (very localised if any I reckon), while others say this weekend will be poor (BBC forecasts suggest a nice one)... strange over- expectations of the British climate or perhaps have they just been thrust here from a hot, dry climate!

[SP1986]

I agree. Certain posts/posters tend to be misleading as they paint a negative picture of present and future weather that is often just typical British weather. This year has proven dry and fairly sunny so far, yet constantly through this Spring it has been portrayed as cold (actuality rather cool/ average). Even this week, that we were led to believe would be very cool and very wet, has turned out average at worse, and the rain has not affected all areas, there have been warm sunny intervals, mild nights and humidity. Now we have posters suggesting widespread rural ground frosts next week (very localised if any I reckon), while others say this weekend will be poor (BBC forecasts suggest a nice one)... strange over- expectations of the British climate or perhaps have they just been thrust here from a hot, dry climate!

Perhaps therefore, if this is the case, and given posters tend to reply on the models, esp. GFS, then the GFS has a lot to answer for with it's scenarios of below average temperatures and cool (and in some cases frosty nights) that keep popping up on the models. The models are simply not as correct as perhaps the reliance on models suggests, hence why people are saying it will be cool.

Secondly many young posters will have lived through a very anomalously warm period, so it's not that they have over expectations, it's actually all they know in some cases. When we get a string of relatively cool summers this is an unusual thing.

I think there's a reason for people saying this whether it be over-reliance on models or just plain experience, but it is incorrect, it clearly isn't going to be as cool as the GFS/some posters suggest, nor frosty.

[mushymanrob]

hmm.. i dont like the 06z gfs, as the high never really centres over us and remains to our west. when this happens it always seems to open the door for northerlies. a very agressive depression sinks into northern europe (but fortunately doesnt effect us too much) as mid atlantic blocking ensues. as both the ukmo and ecm are also reluctant to draw the high over us or to our east, i wouldnt be surprised if the trend continues. pretty dry, not hot, not too cool..

[Harry]

Perhaps therefore, if this is the case, and given posters tend to reply on the models, esp. GFS, then the GFS has a lot to answer for with it's scenarios of below average temperatures and cool (and in some cases frosty nights) that keep popping up on the models. The models are simply not as correct as perhaps the reliance on models suggests, hence why people are saying it will be cool.

Secondly many young posters will have lived through a very anomalously warm period, so it's not that they have over expectations, it's actually all they know in some cases. When we get a string of relatively cool summers this is an unusual thing.

I think there's a reason for people saying this whether it be over-reliance on models or just plain experience, but it is incorrect, it clearly isn't going to be as cool as the GFS/some posters suggest, nor frosty.

Well said that man!

I've mentioned in countless times on here - weather models especially days in advance are quite inaccurate, more so with temperature predictions. I always add (in summer especially) at least 2-3C on top and even then that's normally insufficient.

I'm 23, and the winters I remember were mild, wet and windy with occasional spells of light snow (seldom more than a few centimetres). Almost every year without fail, I'd remember big depressions sweep in off the Atlantic around October time and then again around March time, May/June would bring mixed conditions and frequently big storms from the continent. Summers were often warm/hot, with fairly lengthy heatwaves punctuated by frequent and a times 'scary' storms. Jan/Feb were generally cold and non-descript while the hottest months I recall were always July/August.

The last few years has seen this setup blown out of the water (in the SE anyway). Winters have been colder with higher falls of snow, particularly in the last few years. Intense depressions have been far fewer, especially around October/March time as I remember them years ago. Summers have been generally wetter although warm sunshine has never been too far away. The big thunderstorm events which would occur May through to August are far less frequent, especially the imports.

So to be honest, I don't know anymore what constitutes a good/bad season. The seasons I remember are so different now, and appear to occur at different times of the year (all of the seasons seem to start later in the year now than before).

[The PIT]

yes I've had what I would describe as two summery spells since mid May

18-24 May and 2-5 June.

In each spell the average max was 24-25C or more, no rain neither period, and a fair amount of sunshine, especially the May spell.

Looking ahead then tomorrow seems warm with still a chance that the weekend may end up with just above average max's and, if we go out into FI territory, then Wed into Saturday next week looks like getting into very warm levels.

So nothing to get downhearted with it seems to me.

Most guides to the summer to me suggest no prolonged heat waves but neither any prolonged wet and cool/very cool weather. A rather good mix really, not too hot for too long nor to cool and wet for too long - dare I say it perhaps forgotten 'typical' English summer could be what we will look back on by 1 September.

For those enjoying half empty glasses, cheer up, its the longest day in 11 days, we can then look forward to shortening days and winter!

By the way I never said summer is dead. Anyway Tomorrow is going to be very cold by day but melt down at night. Does the sun ever get that hot ???

Edited June 10, 2010 by The PIT

[Thundery wintry showers]

Expectations are often unrealistic in spring and summer (especially spring). Posts in these threads often give the impression that average maximum temperatures are 15C in March, 20C in April and 25C in May, rising to 27-28C in high summer, and that anything less than prolonged high pressure is a disaster. Hence the portrayal of the spring we've just had as being exceptionally cold and the glossing over of that warm dry sunny April.

At the moment there is some divergence between the outputs, I think the weekend is looking quite cool, dry and bright for most, except for some cloud and rain over Scotland on Sunday afternoon. After that, a rather cool cloudy looking NE'ly on the UKMO but the ECMWF and GFS have the centre of the high further south, so it would end up sunny and warm for a large majority of the country.

As for this week we've been having- it's not too unusual for the time of year. I remember many June spells (1997, 1998, 2000, 2001 and 2007 all had at least one or two) with a setup of cool dry weather in N Scotland (often sunny in the west, dull in the east), fronts, rain and maxima of 10-13C over south Scotland and north England with a cold east wind, and low pressure with some sunshine mixed with thundery downpours for the Midlands and south. Tuesday and Wednesday were merely another example to put with the rest, and a common progression is for the rain to then transfer SE like we're seeing today. I can, however, sympathise with people from parts of NE England calling this week "awful" because I remember the setup well from my Tyne and Wear days- you can go for days without sunshine or a max over 13C there.

[SP1986]

The spring probably was ever so slightly below average as here it was warmer than most other places in Spring and still was only average here. Still it was, for arguments sake, still around average.

It hasn't been average in terms of rainfall though, which have been way way way below what they should be.

For example at this time of year my location would have normally clocked up about 300mm of rain so far, the figure up to now is 181mm for the year - this is heading straight on for a record if it remains as dry as it has been. The record is 410mm. These synoptics are quite fascinating, even low pressure hasn't delivered any rain since the last very warm spell.

[MP-R]

Well certainly not a bad run but could be better if that high was just a bit further eastwards. Doesn't scream interesting though for weather enthusiasts and not much rain in the offing after Friday either.

Thursday currently looks like the warmest day next week, possibly a 25C somewhere:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

[lukemc]

Expectations are often unrealistic in spring and summer (especially spring). Posts in these threads often give the impression that average maximum temperatures are 15C in March, 20C in April and 25C in May, rising to 27-28C in high summer, and that anything less than prolonged high pressure is a disaster. Hence the portrayal of the spring we've just had as being exceptionally cold and the glossing over of that warm dry sunny April.

At the moment there is some divergence between the outputs, I think the weekend is looking quite cool, dry and bright for most, except for some cloud and rain over Scotland on Sunday afternoon. After that, a rather cool cloudy looking NE'ly on the UKMO but the ECMWF and GFS have the centre of the high further south, so it would end up sunny and warm for a large majority of the country.

As for this week we've been having- it's not too unusual for the time of year. I remember many June spells (1997, 1998, 2000, 2001 and 2007 all had at least one or two) with a setup of cool dry weather in N Scotland (often sunny in the west, dull in the east), fronts, rain and maxima of 10-13C over south Scotland and north England with a cold east wind, and low pressure with some sunshine mixed with thundery downpours for the Midlands and south. Tuesday and Wednesday were merely another example to put with the rest, and a common progression is for the rain to then transfer SE like we're seeing today. I can, however, sympathise with people from parts of NE England calling this week "awful" because I remember the setup well from my Tyne and Wear days- you can go for days without sunshine or a max over 13C there.

I don't think I would agree with a cool (i.e. below average) outlook though I do think we could expect at least average temperatures especially if there is little cloud and a lot of sunshine remember we are now nearly into the middle of June were insolation from the sun is at its strongest and I think temperatures should easily reach 21-22C if it is sunny for the weekend especially if the winds are slack.

As for next week I would agree that above average temperatures are looking increasingly likley - do you think the HP could remain in situ for a while allowing the heat to build resulting an a warm spell similar to the one we had at the beginning of the month - it would not take much movement in that high pressure to create really warm or even heatwave conditions in my opinion.

Also I have noticed that a lot of central and eastern europe are experiencing very warm temperatures at the moment isn't thier a possibility that that heat could be sent in our direction by only very small changes in synoptics - looking at some of the temperatures in Eastern Europe at the moment, a straight easterly flow over the UK in the next few weeks certainly wouldn't be cool! (And it wouldn't take much change to the NE'ly flow shown in some of the models at present for that to happen).

Luke

Luke

[johnholmes]

By the way I never said summer is dead.

nor did I quote you as saying such Pit.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Also I have noticed that a lot of central and eastern europe are experiencing very warm temperatures at the moment isn't thier a possibility that that heat could be sent in our direction by only very small changes in synoptics - looking at some of the temperatures in Eastern Europe at the moment, a straight easterly flow over the UK in the next few weeks certainly wouldn't be cool! (And it wouldn't take much change to the NE'ly flow shown in some of the models at present for that to happen).

Luke

It's a common feature of the current pattern- a mid Atlantic ridge favours cool northerlies in north-western Europe (though before today this cooler air only affected the northern half of Britain) and hot southerlies in eastern Europe. Indeed, any continental easterly type could bring some of that heat over here, but I'm not seeing much evidence of that on the latest outputs. It would require the high pressure to centre itself to the north rather than the west, or a low pressure to hang around southern areas and drag that hot air across from the E and SE. Looks quite unlikely for a while with the high "in situ" to the W, though it is possible that we could see this happen later in the month.

This weekend does look set to be cooler than average to me, but by no means outstandingly so. I still maintain that the weather would be on the cool side into next week if the UKMO came off, but GFS/ECM indeed go for something rather warm.

[peterf]

SUMMER LOL.it's still late spring up here and me plum trees are just about in full blossom.lets hope the models throw something better up.

[Jezzer]

Blimey, FI throws up the worst possible outcome for Glastonbury week, Low replacing a nice High just in time for the Festival.

God I hope that's not the actual outcome